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Risk-Informed Decision Making
for HLS Resource Allocation

ANSER Conference Center (HSI)
Shirlington, VA
13-16 April 2009

Final Outbrief

Final Report

Presentations and Tutorials

The National Infrastructure Protection Plan - Keynote Address

Homeland Infrastructure Threat and Risk Analysic Center - Opening Plenary Presentation

Traditional Risk Analysis - Lunch Notes

Rethinking Risk Analysis - Abstract

Rethinking Risk Analysis - Tutorial

Homeland Infrastructure Threat and Risk Analysis Center Presentation

Analytic Requirements and Challenges to Supporting Risk-Reduction Return on Investment as a Decision and
Performance Metric for Infrastructure Protection

Intelligent Adversary Bioterror Risk Model

MORS Tutorial - Intelligent Adversary


Dear Colleague,
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for coordinating our Nation’s efforts to prevent, protect against, respond to, and recover from terrorist attacks, natural disasters, and other catastrophic events. Since its creation, DHS has been charged by Congress and other key stakeholders to integrate terrorism-risk and risk-reduction assessments into its resource allocation decision making. The October 2007 U.S. National Strategy for Homeland Security states that, “we must apply a risk-based framework across all homeland security efforts in order to identify and assess potential hazards (including their downstream effects), determine what levels of relative risk are acceptable, and prioritize and allocate resources among all homeland security partners…….we as a Nation must organize and help mature the profession of risk management by adopting common risk analysis principles and standards, as well as a professional lexicon.”

Successful implementation of a risk-based resource allocation approach will help ensure limited homeland terrorism security resources are directed toward areas perceived to be at MORS Workshop Risk-Informed Decision Making the greatest risk, and/or to areas where risk mitigation investment can yield the greatest reduction of risk for the resources invested. Despite the best efforts of numerous experts from the government, industry, and academia, fully effective and transparent integration of risk assessments into DHS homeland resource allocation decision making remains an elusive goal. In its September 11, 2008 report to DHS, Secretary Chertoff, the Homeland Security Advisory Council identified the need to “Improve Risk Management and Risk Communication” as one of the “Top Ten Challenges Facing the Next Secretary of Homeland Security.” Risk science has been identified by the DHS Science and Technology (S&T) Directorate as one of three critical DHS-unique topics requiring additional research.

The Military Operations Research Society will host an inclusive invitational intergovernmental, interagency, international workshop and will review and assess the current ability of risk science to support homeland security resource allocation decision making. While the Department faces significant risk challenges across the spectrum of its “all hazards” mission area, terrorism risk management poses unique challenges and will be the primary focus of this workshop. Workshop attendees will document and share terrorism risk management best practices, identify shortfalls and specific areas requiring new thinking, propose solutions to identified shortfalls, and where necessary recommend research areas/strategies that could lead to innovative solutions. Inevitably, all homeland security risk areas facing our Nation will also benefit from the products of this workshop.
Workshop Objectives and Structure: Challenges associated with terrorism risk assessments have led to numerous high level calls for new intellectual capital in this critical area. While it is unlikely any of these complex problems can be resolved in 2 1/2 days, this workshop will establish a community wide foundation of current best practices and thinking and propose new approaches and/or research that will contribute to the mitigation shortfalls/gaps in current risk science. The workshop will feature four thematic tracks/Working Groups that address key perceived terrorism risk construct challenges:
WG 1: Terrorism Threat Assessment
WG 2: Terrorism Vulnerability Assessment
WG 3: Terrorism Consequence Prediction/Measurement and Prioritization
WG 4: Risk Reduction Effectiveness/Cost-Effectiveness Assessment/Prediction

A Synthesis Working Group will integrate deliberations, views, and ideas emerging across the four thematic workgroups. Preliminary working group objectives and themes are provided, in detail, on the MORS web site. These themes will be refined and/or modified as appropriate by working group chairs and co-chairs. We hope you can join us for this workshop which is scheduled for 14-16 April 2009 at Analytic Services, Inc. (ANSER), 2800 S. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22206.

Terms of Reference - The workshop Terms of Reference discusses the meeting process; workshop vision, goals and organization; virtual planning elements; workshop operation; and, participating organizations and personnel and security procedures.
WG 1: Terrorism Threat Assessment Terms of Reference
WG 2: Vulnerability Analysis Terms of Reference
WG 3: Consequence Measurement and Prioritization Terms of Reference
WG 4: Risk Reduction Effectiveness/Cost-Effectiveness Assessment/Prediction Terms of Reference

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