Probability Management

Probability Management Banner

Point of Contact

Lead: Mr. Philip Fahringer
Lead: Mr. Max Disla


Probability Management is the discipline of communicating uncertainty as data that obey both the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability while preserving statistical coherence. This data is stored in cross-platform open standard stochastic libraries as vectors of simulation trials known as SIPs (Stochastic Information Packets). These may serve as connective tissue linking applications in costs analysis, data science, simulation and readiness applications into chance-informed collaborative networks. Several publications by MORS members have already explored the application of the discipline to Military Readiness.

Meeting Details:

Established: Feb 2023

The CoP will hold regular meetings that are a mix between informational presentations and collaborative workshops, emphasizing on the latter, to produce valuable products.

The CoP will also offer a hands-on tutorial at the MORS 91st Symposium at West Point in June, introducing the tools and standards of probability management and updating members on the evolving technology in this area.

Model Links

Top Gun Maverick Mission ChanceOmeter

Interactive SIPmath simulation that estimates the chance of mission success based on input parameters such as chance of weapon malfunction and pilot proficiency. Includes Bayesian analysis of conditional probabilities.

Model Link

Documentation Link

Eagle Claw Success Calculator

Operation Eagle Claw was the failed mission to rescue the hostages in the US Embassy in Iran in 1980. They required six helicopters, known to have a 75% reliability. They sent eight aircraft because 75% of eight is six. This model and accompanying JSON library show how a commander today without statistical knowledge could easily calculate there was one chance in three of mission failure due to a mechanical issue.

Model Link

Documentation Link

Library Links

SIPmath files are in JSON and may be opened with any text editor.

HeloFHBF12Lib (

Missions2-5 (

Chance-Informed Deployment Spares

Conceptual model showing the tradeoff between costs of various portfolios of spare aircraft parts and the chance of completing a desired number of sorties. Additional models of this type are available on the MORS members portion of this site.

Model Link

Documentation Link

Connecting and Contributing to the CoP:

Ms. Liz Marriott
Director, Professional Development

Probability Management Library