Overview
The Emerging Techniques Forum (ETF) is driven to improve analysis and understanding throughout the defense community by seeking out novel and leading-edge approaches, methods, and techniques - wherever they are conceived. By sharing and incorporating the latest (and in-progress) developments across government, academia, private industry, and enthusiasts, the ETF aims to support and maintain relevant, timely, and early comprehension of lessons learned that may grow to have an outsized impact on the community at large.
The ETF seeks advancements in tools and techniques that enable decisive action in complex environments. Our tracks explore how information aggregation, processing, and computation can improve predictions of future needs and risk assessments of complex investment and operational strategies. Many of these efforts have seen rapid maturation and evolutionary leaps in analytic capability borne from recent global crises.
Call For Abstracts
The ETF committee is now seeking abstracts for technical presentations. Abstracts should fall under one of the main topics below or a topic of your choosing. All abstracts must be submitted as unclassified and 1,500 or less characters without images or videos. There will be a track for classified presentations.. If you are submitting an abstract for the classified session, indicate the classification level at the time of submission. To submit an abstract, visit the Presenter Center or select the button above. Chairs will start reviewing abstracts 19 August 2022.
Topic Areas
- Optimization of IT Infrastructure & Analytic Platforms (Cloud, Big Data, etc.)
- Emerging AI/ML (algorithms, adversarial, ethical, etc.)
- Autonomy; Robotics; Human-Machine Teaming
- Anomaly Detection; Dynamic Behavior Prediction
- Advances in Information Operations (Social Media, Bots, etc.)
- Infrastructure Protection & Resilience (climate, sensors, cybersecurity, etc.)
- Distributed Information Sensing, Data Fusion, & Network Resiliency
- Image, Video, & Spatiotemporal Big Data Processing
- Augmented Reality; Training; Decision Making
- Organizational, Institutional, & Policy Approaches to Augment Analyses
- Methodological Advances in Statistics, Mathematics, & Computer Science
- Visco Prize
- Custom/ Add your own
Keynote Speakers
Dr. Ryan Barrett
Ryan Barrett is currently a Brookings Fellow assigned to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment, and Cyber. He collaborates with various stakeholders in government, non-governmental organizations, and academics on foreign policy issues, as well as developing policy options for the Subcommittee Chair, Congressman Bill Keating. Prior to his current assignment, he was a program analyst for security cooperation initiatives at the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), focusing on security assistance to Eastern European partners. Read More
Ryan Barrett is currently a Brookings Fellow assigned to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment, and Cyber. He collaborates with various stakeholders in government, non-governmental organizations, and academics on foreign policy issues, as well as developing policy options for the Subcommittee Chair, Congressman Bill Keating. Prior to his current assignment, he was a program analyst for security cooperation initiatives at the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), focusing on security assistance to Eastern European partners.
Before entering the civil service at the Department of Defense, Ryan lived and worked in Belarus and Ukraine, learning Russian and conducting research on policy-making processes. He served on active duty as a Logistics Readiness Officer in the USAF, completing one tour in Iraq and another in Afghanistan. Ryan is a recipient of both the Pat Tillman Fellowship and the Boren Fellowship. He earned his B.A. in International Studies from the School of International Service at the American University, a M.A. in International Relations from Webster University, as well as a M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Missouri - Saint Louis.
Dr. Baruch Fischhoff
Dr. Baruch Fischhoff is Howard Heinz University Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy and Institute for Politics and Strategy, Carnegie Mellon University. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, he holds a BS (mathematics, psychology) from Wayne State University and a PhD (psychology) from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Medicine. He is past President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making and of the Society for Risk Analysis. Read More
Dr. Baruch Fischhoff is Howard Heinz University Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy and Institute for Politics and Strategy, Carnegie Mellon University. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, he holds a BS (mathematics, psychology) from Wayne State University and a PhD (psychology) from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Medicine. He is past President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making and of the Society for Risk Analysis. He has chaired the FDA Risk Communication Advisory Committee and been a member of the Eugene (Oregon) Commission on the Rights of Women, the DHS Science and Technology Advisory Committee and the EPA Scientific Advisory Board, where he chaired the Homeland Security Advisory Committee. He has received the American Psychological Association (APA) Award for Distinguished Contribution to Psychology, Carnegie Mellon’s Ryan Award for Meritorious Teaching, a Doctorate of Humanities honoris causa from Lund University, an Andrew Carnegie Fellowship, and Sigma Xi William Procter Prize for Scientific Achievement. He is a Fellow of APA, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Association for Psychological Science, Society of Experimental Psychologists, and Society for Risk Analysis. His books include Acceptable Risk (1981), A Two-State Solution in the Middle East (1993), Risk: A Very Short Introduction (2011), Communicating Risks and Benefits (2011) and Counting Civilian Casualties (2013). He has served on many committees of the National Academies, including recent ones on science communication, intelligence analysis, cybersecurity, global change, and pandemic disease.
Featured Speaker
Dr. Michael Ford
Michael Ford, PPPL’s associate laboratory director for engineering, leads more than 200 staff members in PPPL’s Engineering Department. A veteran of the nuclear U.S. Navy, his most recent position was strategy development director for the Energy and Global Security (EGS) Directorate at Argonne National Laboratory. There he led Phase I of the National Demonstration Reactor Siting Study supporting the National Reactor Innovation Center. Read More
Michael Ford, PPPL’s associate laboratory director for engineering, leads more than 200 staff members in PPPL’s Engineering Department. A veteran of the nuclear U.S. Navy, his most recent position was strategy development director for the Energy and Global Security (EGS) Directorate at Argonne National Laboratory. There he led Phase I of the National Demonstration Reactor Siting Study supporting the National Reactor Innovation Center. He previously was a researcher at the Harvard University Center for the Environment and at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and is currently collaborating with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) on research focused on energy system alternatives and the development of microreactors. He earned his Ph.D. in engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.
Tutorials
Date/Time: 8-Dec, 2021 (Wednesday); 1300-1600
Where: Conference room in Hilton Mark Center; "bring your own laptop"
Description: Electrification is the process of replacing technologies that use fossil fuels with those that use electricity. Chancification is the process of replacing computations based on deterministic numbers with those based on probability distributions. From this perspective, the electricity of Chancification are Stochastic Libraries of Monte Carlo trials in the Open SIPmath™ standard. These may be generated using R, Python, or the free SIPmath Tools from 501(c)(3) nonprofit ProbabilityManagement.org. Continuing this analogy, the nonprofit has just introduced the first generation of its power grid, the SIPmath Network. This can extract stochastic models from any software environment and distribute them to a simple to use light bulb, called ChanceCalc in Excel. ChanceCalc in turn can create Chance-Informed dashboards that run without Macros or Add-ins.
Participants will learn how: to create interactive risk dashboards that perform thousands of Monte Carlo trials per keystroke in native Excel, to create SIP (stochastic) libraries using R, Python or the SIPmath Tools; to post SIP libraries to the internet or intranet; and to create enterprise wide decision dashboards based on these SIP Libraries.
This presentation is for all Excel users who make decisions under uncertainty, so bring your laptop. No statistical background is assumed but for those with extensive training in the area this tutorial should repair the damage.
Instructor
Dr. Sam L. Savage
Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org
Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a founding board member. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012), is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University and a Fellow of Cambridge University's Judge Business School. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University.
Date/Time: 8-Dec, 2021 (Wednesday); 0900 – 1200
Where: Conference room in Hilton Mark Center; "bring your own laptop"
Overview: This tutorial focuses on employing the latest techniques in R and Python to examine real world data.
You will learn:
- How to preprocess data, fit models, and validate your results in both R and Python
- Comparisons between the languages and their major modeling packages
Instructors: MAJ Dusty Turner & Mr. Robert Ward
Technical Requirements:
- A laptop with RStudio, R version 3.6.0 or higher, and any recent Python distribution and development environment (Jupyter Notebook/Lab, VSCode, Spyder, RStudio) in which you are able to install and use common data science libraries.
- ALTERNATIVE: a cloud environment that meets the requirements above and allows you to upload your own data.
Instructors
MAJ Dusty S. Turner
Operations Research Systems Analyst
MAJ Dusty Turner is an Operations Research Systems Analyst at the Center for Army Analysis. He works in the Operations Analysis division doing data science in support of current operations. His recent projects include COVID-19 modeling in support of Army Senior Leader decision making and leading the Introduction to R Course taught to members of the Department of Defense. He was formerly an Assistant Professor at The United States Military Academy at West Point, where he taught “Advanced Introduction to Probability and Statistics” and “Statistical Methods.”
Operations Research Systems Analyst
MAJ Dusty Turner is an Operations Research Systems Analyst at the Center for Army Analysis. He works in the Operations Analysis division doing data science in support of current operations. His recent projects include COVID-19 modeling in support of Army Senior Leader decision making and leading the Introduction to R Course taught to members of the Department of Defense. He was formerly an Assistant Professor at The United States Military Academy at West Point, where he taught “Advanced Introduction to Probability and Statistics” and “Statistical Methods.”
MAJ Turner is a member of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS) and The American Statistical Society (ASA). He has a M.S. in Integrated Systems Engineering with a Graduate Minor in Applied Statistics from The Ohio State University, a M.S. in Engineering Management from the Missouri University of Science and Technology, and a B.S. in Operations Research from the United States Military Academy at West Point.
Dusty enjoys his kids’ little league baseball games and going for runs with his wife.
Mr. Robert Ward
Operations Research Analyst
Mr. Ward is an Operations Research Analyst in the Operations Analysis Division at the Center for Army Analysis. Since 2018, he has helped organizations across the Army collect, analyze, and visualize data to support better-informed decisions, as well assisting with efforts to train analysts to use R and spread modern data science capabilities throughout the defense OR community. Most recently, Robert has worked on CAA’s COVID-19 forecasting and analysis and on model modernization planning. He holds a Master of International Affairs in International Security Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a B.A. in Political Science and English from the University of Chicago.
Operations Research Analyst
Mr. Ward is an Operations Research Analyst in the Operations Analysis Division at the Center for Army Analysis. Since 2018, he has helped organizations across the Army collect, analyze, and visualize data to support better-informed decisions, as well assisting with efforts to train analysts to use R and spread modern data science capabilities throughout the defense OR community. Most recently, Robert has worked on CAA’s COVID-19 forecasting and analysis and on model modernization planning. He holds a Master of International Affairs in International Security Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a B.A. in Political Science and English from the University of Chicago.
Classified
Visit Request submitted no later than 30 November 2021
Purpose - MORS ETF: 8 December 2021
Level: SECRET
SMO Code: 6A286
Technical POC: Jennifer Ferat
703-933.9074
Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc.,
Attn: Document Control
2001 N Beauregard St
Alexandria, VA 22311
*Presentations submitted no later than November 15th 2021
SIPR address:
Lucas.d.piepkorn.ctr@mail.smil.mil
Hotel
Hyatt Regency Crystal City At Reagan National Airport
2799 Richmond Hwy,
Arlington, VA 22202
(703) 418-1234
Get directions
MORS has secured a block of hotel rooms for the ETF at the Hyatt Regency Crystal City. Please book your reservation here before 2 September to secure the group rate of $239 + tax (which is lower than per diem.)
The hotel offers valet parking. Overnight guests staying within our room block will receive $15 off the published parking rate in September.
Registration
The "Invoice Me" option can only be used for the registration fee. This option won't appear if you have social tickets, CEU courses or tutorials in your cart. If you need assistance registering please contact Ms. Sarah Madonia, sarah.madonia@mors.org.
Employer
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Early
(3/01-8/26)
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Regular
(8/27-9/16)
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Late
(9/16-Onsite)
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MORS Government Sponsor*
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Member
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$450
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$500
|
$550
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MORS Government Sponsor*
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Non-Member
|
$550
|
$600
|
$650
|
US Federal Government
|
Member
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$500
|
$550
|
$600
|
US Federal Government
|
Non-Member
|
$600
|
$650
|
$700
|
IDA
|
Member
|
$523
|
$573
|
$623
|
IDA
|
Non-Member
|
$618
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$668
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$718
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All Others
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Member
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$550
|
$600
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$650
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All Others
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Non-Member
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$650
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$700
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$750
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*Government Sponsor organizations include Center for Army Analysis, HQDA/DCS Program G-8; Marine Corps Combat Development and Integration; Naval Operations, N81; SAF/SA, Studies and Analysis; OSD, A&S; and DHS S&T/OSE/ORA
Visco Prize
Eugene P. Visco
1927-2019
MORS Eugene P. Visco Prize for International Collaboration in Operations Research
Established in 2019, this prize recognizes excellence in research quality, contributions, and presentation. Early career and Junior Analysts conducting impactful, technically rigorous, and multi-disciplinary research are highly encouraged to apply! Visit the Visco Prize webpage for more information.