Overview:
The MORS Certificate in U.S. National Security Risk Analysis is a five-day course designed for all levels of analysts seeking to understand the basic concept of risk as it relates to national security. Probability, uncertainty, consequences, fear, and human control all come into play when it comes to risk. The course will start by exploring typically fuzzy problems and move them towards quantitative risk evaluation. Throughout the course, participants will survey several quantitative risk methodologies, including fault trees, value-based decisions, the Lagrange-multiplier method, and modern data visualization.
Students will learn quantitative risk evaluation, build probability models, compute the value of information, and survey best practices for communicating risk. The course will start by exploring typically fuzzy problems and moving them towards quantitative risk evaluation. Participants will survey several quantitative risk methodologies, including fault trees, value-based decisions, Lagrange-multiplier method, and modern data visualization.
MORS has partnered with Virginia Tech to offer this certificate. Participants will receive a number Continuing Education Units (CEUs) upon completion, in accordance with the number of contact hours determined by Virginia Tech.
Objectives:
Our expert instructors will introduce participants to a variety of key tools and methods used in risk analysis as it pertains to national security. Participants will learn quantitative risk evaluation, build probability models, compute the value of information, and survey best practices for communicating risk. By the end of the course, participants will be able to:
- Conceptualize national security risk problems
- Structure adversarial risk problems with shifting evidence
- Survey quantitative risk methodologies
- Use Monte Carlo Simulation for risk analysis
- Communicate risk to executives, analysts, and the public
Requirements: Computer with Excel and administrative privileges to download SIPMath (a simulation tool) and Netica (Bayesian network / Influence diagram)
Agenda
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Program
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Day 1
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Definitions, Pillars of Modern Risk and Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Risk Analysis
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Day 2
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Making Decisions with Risk and Uncertainty
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Day 3
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Risk Management Decision Making
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Day 4
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Calibration and Risk Communication
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Day 5
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Bayesian Analysis
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Speakers
Dr. Kenneth Crowther
Product Security Leader, Xylem Inc.
Dr. Crowther is the Product Security Leader for Xylem Americas Commercial Teams and Applied Water Systems. He was formerly Product Security Leader for General Electric (GE) Global Research and a product security risk analyst for the GE product security engineering team. He has taught applied quantitative risk analysis at the University of Virginia for over 15 years, and has published dozens of peer-reviewed manuscripts. Read More
Dr. Crowther is the Product Security Leader for Xylem Americas Commercial Teams and Applied Water Systems. He was formerly Product Security Leader for General Electric (GE) Global Research and a product security risk analyst for the GE product security engineering team. He has taught applied quantitative risk analysis at the University of Virginia for over 15 years, and has published dozens of peer-reviewed manuscripts on topics related to risk analysis and homeland security, served as the Chair of Attack and Disaster Preparedness Track of the IEEE Homeland Security Technology Conference, as the Assistant Area Editor for the journal Risk Analysis, as Chair of the Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group and Security and Defense Specialty Group of the Society for Risk Analysis, and on the Board of Directors of the Security Analysis and Risk Management Association. His research and publications in risk analysis have received various honors by the Institute for Information Infrastructure Protection, the International Council for Disaster Research, the University of Virginia Department of Systems and Information Engineering, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems. In addition to his current work at Xylem, he serves on the ISA Global Security Alliance subcommittee for IIOT cybersecurity certifications and on a committee of the Military Operations Research Society to train and certify risk analysts for doing national security risk analyses.
Dr. Crowther holds a PhD in Systems and Information Engineering from the University of Virginia and a BS in Chemical Engineering from Brigham Young University.
Dr. Cameron MacKenzie
Assistant Professor, Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Iowa State University
Dr. Cameron MacKenzie is an assistant professor in the Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Department at Iowa State University. He publishes frequently on risk analysis topics, to include decision making in advance of hurricanes, allocating resources to prepare and respond to disruptions, and supply chain risk management. Read More
Assistant Professor, Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Iowa State University
Dr. Cameron MacKenzie is an assistant professor in the Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Department at Iowa State University. He publishes frequently on risk analysis topics, to include decision making in advance of hurricanes, allocating resources to prepare and respond to disruptions, and supply chain risk management. He helped design the web-based Hurricane Decision Simulator, which the Marines Reserve Forces in New Orleans use in their hurricane preparedness training. Cameron served as Chair of the Security and Defense Specialty Group and the Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group in the Society for Risk Analysis. At Iowa State University, he teaches graduate courses in engineering risk analysis and decision analysis and undergraduate courses in simulation and engineering economics. Before coming to Iowa State, he was an assistant professor in the Defense Resources Management Institute at the Naval Postgraduate School. He also worked at the consulting firm led by former Defense Secretary William Cohen.
Registration
The "Invoice Me" option can only be used for the registration fee. This option won't appear if you have social tickets, CEU courses or tutorials in your cart. If you need assistance registering please contact Ms. Sarah Madonia, sarah.madonia@mors.org.
Employer
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Member
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Non-Member
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MORS Government Sponsor*
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$2,700
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$2,800
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U.S. Federal Government
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$2,800
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$2,900
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National Research Partner
(IDA Employees Only)
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$2,755
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$2,850
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All Others
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$2,900
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$3,000
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*Government Sponsor organizations include Center for Army Analysis, HQDA/DCS Program G-8; Marine Corps Combat Development and Integration; Naval Operations, N81; SAF/SA, Studies and Analysis; OSD, A&S; and DHS S&T/OSE/ORA