The MORS Certificate in U.S. National Security Risk Analysis is a four-day course designed for all levels of analysts seeking to understand the basic concept of risk as it relates to national security. Probability, uncertainty, consequences, fear, and human control all come into play when it comes to risk. The course will start by exploring typically fuzzy problems and move them towards quantitative risk evaluation. Throughout the course, participants will survey several quantitative risk methodologies, including fault trees, value-based decisions, the Lagrange-multiplier method, and modern data visualization.
Students will learn quantitative risk evaluation, build probability models, compute the value of information, and survey best practices for communicating risk. The course will start by exploring typically fuzzy problems and moving them towards quantitative risk evaluation. Participants will survey several quantitative risk methodologies, including fault trees, value-based decisions, Lagrange-multiplier method, and modern data visualization.
MORS has partnered with Virginia Tech to offer this certificate. Participants will receive a number Continuing Education Units (CEUs) upon completion, in accordance with the number of contact hours determined by Virginia Tech.
Our expert instructors will introduce participants to a variety of key tools and methods used in risk analysis as it pertains to national security. Participants will learn quantitative risk evaluation, build probability models, compute the value of information, and survey best practices for communicating risk. By the end of the course, participants will be able to:
- Conceptualize national security risk problems
- Structure adversarial risk problems with shifting evidence
- Survey quantitative risk methodologies
- Use Monte Carlo Simulation for risk analysis
- Communicate risk to executives, analysts, and the public
Requirements: Computer with Excel and administrative privileges to download SIPMath (a simulation tool) and Netica (Bayesian network / Influence diagram)
||Definitions, Pillars of Modern Risk
||Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Risk Analysis
||Risk Management and Risk Communication
||Bayesian Analysis and Predictive Modeling
Dr. Kenneth Crowther
Product Security Leader, Xylem Inc.
Dr. Crowther is the Product Security Leader for Xylem Americas Commercial Teams and Applied Water Systems. He was formerly Product Security Leader for General Electric (GE) Global Research and a product security risk analyst for the GE product security engineering team. He has taught applied quantitative risk analysis at the University of Virginia for over 15 years, and has published dozens of peer-reviewed manuscripts. Read More
Dr. Cameron MacKenzie
Associate Professor, Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Iowa State University
Dr. Cameron MacKenzie is an associate professor in the Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Department at Iowa State University. He publishes frequently on risk analysis topics, to include decision making in advance of hurricanes, allocating resources to prepare and respond to disruptions, and supply chain risk management. Read More
Dr. Arch Turner
Arch Turner is a retired career Naval Aviator. While on active duty he piloted carrier-based fighter/attack aircraft over a period of fourteen years and served in a variety of aviation related technical positions. Following Navy retirement Arch worked in the defense and U.S. National Security domain. He completed a fifty year full-time professional career as Operations Analysis Chief and Technical Director in the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate. Read More
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|MORS Government Sponsor*
|U.S. Federal Government
|National Research Partner
(IDA Employees Only)
| All Others
*Government Sponsor organizations include Center for Army Analysis, HQDA/DCS Program G-8; Marine Corps Combat Development and Integration; Naval Operations, N81; SAF/SA, Studies and Analysis; OSD, A&S; and DHS S&T/OSE/ORA