Overview:
The MORS Certificate in National Security Risk Analysis is a five-day course designed for all levels of
analysts seeking to understand the basic concept of risk as it relates to national security. Probability,
uncertainty, consequences, fear, and human control all come into play when it comes to
security risk.
The course will start by exploring typically fuzzy problems and move them towards quantitative risk
evaluation. Throughout the course, participants will survey several quantitative risk methodologies,
including
calibrated probability elicitation, various probability simulation
techniques, graph-based methods, and artificial intelligence, among others.
Objectives:
Our expert instructors will introduce participants to a variety of key tools and methods used in risk
analysis as it pertains to national security. Participants will learn quantitative risk evaluation, build
probability models, compute the value of information, and survey best practices for communicating risk. By
the end of the course, participants will be able to:
- Conceptualize national security risk problems
- Structure adversarial risk problems with shifting evidence
- Survey quantitative risk methodologies
- Use Monte Carlo Simulation for risk analysis
- Communicate risk to executives, analysts, and the public
Requirements: Computer with Excel and administrative privileges to download SIPMath (a
simulation tool) and Netica (Bayesian network / Influence diagram)
Instructors
Dr. Kenneth Crowther
Product Security Leader, Xylem Inc.
Dr. Crowther is the Product Security Leader for Xylem Americas Commercial Teams and Applied Water
Systems. He was formerly Product Security Leader for General Electric (GE) Global Research and a
product security risk analyst for the GE product security engineering team. He has taught applied
quantitative risk analysis at the University of Virginia for over 15 years, and has published dozens
of peer-reviewed manuscripts.
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Dr. Crowther is the Product Security Leader for Xylem Americas Commercial Teams and
Applied Water Systems. He was formerly Product Security Leader for General Electric
(GE) Global Research and a product security risk analyst for the GE product security
engineering team. He has taught applied quantitative risk analysis at the University
of Virginia for over 15 years, and has published dozens of peer-reviewed manuscripts
on topics related to risk analysis and homeland security, served as the Chair of
Attack and Disaster Preparedness Track of the IEEE Homeland Security Technology
Conference, as the Assistant Area Editor for the journal Risk Analysis, as Chair of
the Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group and Security and Defense
Specialty Group of the Society for Risk Analysis, and on the Board of Directors of
the Security Analysis and Risk Management Association. His research and publications
in risk analysis have received various honors by the Institute for Information
Infrastructure Protection, the International Council for Disaster Research, the
University of Virginia Department of Systems and Information Engineering, the
Department of Homeland Security, and the Center for Risk Management of Engineering
Systems. In addition to his current work at Xylem, he serves on the ISA Global
Security Alliance subcommittee for IIOT cybersecurity certifications and on a
committee of the Military Operations Research Society to train and certify risk
analysts for doing national security risk analyses.
Dr. Crowther holds a PhD in Systems and Information Engineering from the University
of Virginia and a BS in Chemical Engineering from Brigham Young University.
Dr. Cameron MacKenzie
Associate Professor, Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Iowa State University
Dr. Cameron MacKenzie is an associate professor in the Industrial and Manufacturing Systems
Engineering Department at Iowa State University. He publishes frequently on risk analysis topics, to
include decision making in advance of hurricanes, allocating resources to prepare and respond to
disruptions, and supply chain risk management.
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Associate Professor, Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Iowa State
University
Dr. Cameron MacKenzie is an associate professor in the Industrial and Manufacturing
Systems Engineering Department at Iowa State University. He publishes frequently on
risk analysis topics, to include decision making in advance of hurricanes,
allocating resources to prepare and respond to disruptions, and supply chain risk
management. He helped design the web-based Hurricane Decision Simulator, which the
Marines Reserve Forces in New Orleans use in their hurricane preparedness training.
Cameron served as Chair of the Security and Defense Specialty Group and the
Engineering and Infrastructure Specialty Group in the Society for Risk Analysis. At
Iowa State University, he teaches graduate courses in engineering risk analysis and
decision analysis and undergraduate courses in simulation and engineering economics.
Before coming to Iowa State, he was an assistant professor in the Defense Resources
Management Institute at the Naval Postgraduate School. He also worked at the
consulting firm led by former Defense Secretary William Cohen.
Dr. Arch Turner
Consultant
Arch Turner is a retired career Naval Aviator. While on active duty he piloted carrier-based
fighter/attack aircraft over a period of fourteen years and served in a variety of aviation related
technical positions. Following Navy retirement Arch worked in the defense and U.S. National Security
domain. He completed a fifty year full-time professional career as Operations Analysis Chief and
Technical Director in the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate.
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Arch Turner is a retired career Naval Aviator. While on active duty he piloted
carrier-based fighter/attack aircraft over a period of fourteen years and served in a
variety of aviation related technical positions. Following Navy retirement Arch worked
in the defense and U.S. National Security domain. He completed a fifty year full-time
professional career as Operations Analysis Chief and Technical Director in the
Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate. Arch presently
teaches data analytics courses at the University of Richmond and serves as volunteer
research and data analysis chief for the non-profit American Veterans Vote veterans
advocacy organization. Arch’s educational background includes a BS in Aerospace
Engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy and Master Degrees in Operations Research (U.S.
Naval Postgraduate School) and Information Systems Technology (The George Washington
University). Arch earned a Ph.D. from The George Washington pursuing his interests in
technology development and management. Arch is a member and Fellow of the Military
Operations Research Society and a member of The Society for Risk Analysis. Arch resides
in Williamsburg Virginia with his wife Joyce.
Registration
The "Invoice Me" option can only be used for the registration fee. This option won't appear if you have
social tickets, CEU courses or tutorials in your cart. If you need assistance registering please contact Ms.
Karla Lee-Riviere,
karla.lee-riviere@mors.org.
| Employer
|
Member
|
Non-Member
|
| MORS Government Sponsor*
|
$2,700
|
$2,800
|
| U.S. Federal Government
|
$2,800
|
$2,900
|
| National Research Partner
|
$2,755
|
$2,850
|
| All Others
|
$2,900
|
$3,000
|
*Government Sponsor organizations include: Center for Army Analysis, HQDA/DCS Program G-8; Marine Corps
Combat Development and Integration; Naval Operations, N81; Secretariat of the Air Force, Studies and
Analysis SAF/SA; and OSD, A&S.