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Analytic Dynamics of
Deterrence and Non-proliferation
19-22 March 2012 | APL Crystal City Office (APL Collaborative Analysis Center)
2461 S. Clark Street, Suite 1200, Arlington, VA
> Facility Map, Driving and Parking Information
Background and Workshop Vision
“The landscape of U.S. strategic prevention operations has changed dramatically over the past generation. That landscape change presents a formidable challenge to decision makers and raises questions for the analytical community – namely, how can analysis illuminate the range of issues related to prevention, and its subsets of deterrence, non-proliferation, and counter-proliferation? How does our Cold War experience inform deterrence and prevention in a post-Cold War world? This workshop will focus on exploring that range of questions and how analysis can inform them: How do we evaluate our efforts to sustain deterrence, and to sustain the Nuclear Enterprise as a whole? How do we provide insights to the QDR/NPR/NSS/NMS, and how can those insights inform policy and strategy? What are the approaches that illuminate non-proliferation and counter-proliferation? What role does arms control play, and how does analysis inform arms negotiations? What is the role of analysis in illuminating these questions, potential insights, and relevant courses of action?
Theories of deterrence are not new – in fact, a bibliography on Cold War era deterrence is too voluminous to list here. But while deterrence thinking and analysis in a world where the United States faced a single nuclear challenge is not new, the corresponding thinking and analysis of a twenty-first century world is far less extensive. We now live in a world in which the two pre-eminent nuclear powers are reducing their nuclear stockpiles rather than increasing them; in which the number of nuclear powers, which has been stable for decades, may be on the verge of increasing – in short, in a world in which the distribution of nuclear arms is as unfamiliar as anything we have so far confronted.
Tutorials
In an effort to involve the broadest community, especially academia, Monday tutorials will be open to US Citizens without clearance. If you are only attending the unclassified Monday session, you must submit verification of your United States citizenship to the MORS Office by March 15, 2012. Acceptable proof of citizenship includes a copy of one of the following documents: • Birth Certificate • US Passport • Certificate of Naturalization
Learn with these Four Important Topics
- Foundations and Definitions of Combating WMD and Deterrence
- History and Practice of Cold War Deterrence
- Foundations of Arms Control and Recent History
- Guided discussion at end, to capture insights and comment
Security - This Meeting is SECRET//NOFORN – All participants attending Tuesday – Thursday sessions must submit a personal security form 226A/B by 12 March 2012.
Form 226A for Contractors | Form 226B for Government
Working Group 4: Analytic Support to the U.S. Nuclear Enterprise will only be open to those registrants with access to CNWDI. If you do not have access to CNWDI at the time you submit your personal security form 226A/B you will not be permitted to attend that working group; you will be able to attend working groups 1, 2, and 3.
Networking Event - Join your colleagues on Tuesday evening from 1700 – 2000 at Jaleo, 2250A Crystal Drive, for complimentary hors d'oeuvres and a cash bar.
Registration Fees
Non-Government/Non-Member: $750
Non-Government/Member: $675
Government/Non-Member: $650
Government/Member: $575
Monday Only – Unclassified: $75 Member; $100 Non-Member
Presentation Disclosure Forms are required for presenters. Please complete and return these forms by 14 March 2012.
Form 712A for Contractors | Form 712B for Government
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Attendee Information
Terms of Reference, with
- Meeting Agenda
- Tutorial Information
- Working Group Topics
- Meeting Leadership
- Other Meeting Information
Hear these distinguished speakers:
Keynote Address:
Dr. Ted Warner (bio)
Secretary of Defense Representative to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) Negotiations
Plenary Address:
Amy F. Woolf (bio)
Specialist, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service at the Library of Congress
Hotel - The Hilton Crystal City is just across the street from the meeting site. MORS has NOT reserved a block of rooms.
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