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Analytic Dynamics of
Deterrence and Non-proliferation 
19-22 March 2012  | APL Crystal City Office (APL Collaborative Analysis Center)

>>Download the final meeting report.

Background and Workshop Vision
“The landscape of U.S. strategic prevention operations has changed dramatically over the past generation.  That landscape change presents a formidable challenge to decision makers and raises questions for the analytical community – namely, how can analysis illuminate the range of issues related to prevention, and its subsets of deterrence, non-proliferation, and counter-proliferation?  How does our Cold War experience inform deterrence and prevention in a post-Cold War world?  This workshop will focus on exploring that range of questions and how analysis can inform them: How do we evaluate our efforts to sustain deterrence, and to sustain the Nuclear Enterprise as a whole?  How do we provide insights to the QDR/NPR/NSS/NMS, and how can those insights inform policy and strategy?  What are the approaches that illuminate non-proliferation and counter-proliferation?  What role does arms control play, and how does analysis inform arms negotiations?  What is the role of analysis in illuminating these questions, potential insights, and relevant courses of action?

Theories of deterrence are not new – in fact, a bibliography on Cold War era deterrence is too voluminous to list here.  But while deterrence thinking and analysis in a world where the United States faced a single nuclear challenge is not new, the corresponding thinking and analysis of a twenty-first century world is far less extensive.  We now live in a world in which the two pre-eminent nuclear powers are reducing their nuclear stockpiles rather than increasing them; in which the number of nuclear powers, which has been stable for decades, may be on the verge of increasing – in short, in a world in which the distribution of nuclear arms is as unfamiliar as anything we have so far confronted.

Hear these distinguished speakers:

Dr. Ted Warner (bio)
Keynote Address - Secretary of Defense Representative to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) Negotiations

Amy F. Woolf 
Plenary Address - Specialist, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional Research Service at the Library of Congress


Attendee Information

Terms of Reference, with
- Meeting Agenda
- Tutorial Information
- Working Group Topics
- Meeting Leadership
- Other Meeting Information

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