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2021 Vol. 26, #1 - Military Readiness Modeling: Changing the Question from “Ready or Not?” to “How Ready for What?”
We present an actionable data framework to improve military readiness reporting systems using stochastic scenario libraries that permit calculation of the probabilities of military readiness for specified missions at uncertain future times. Specifically, the scenario libraries contain sets of vectors of stochastic realizations and metadata called stochastic information packets (SIPs) applied in a readiness context that convey the probabilities that combinations of military assets will be capable of performing specified missions if called upon. Furthermore, the framework allows lower-level readiness reports to be generated in a decentralized manner and “rolled up” into higher level reports across unit types and military branches. It is based on the concept of auditable, stochastic scenario libraries long in use in financial engineering and the insurance industry. In the military context, the vectors would comprise the coherent trials of simulation outputs generated by existing or future readiness simulations on any platform. These representations of uncertainty are cross-platform and could be used across military services to inform collaborative modeling that permits the specialization of labor. If implemented by the military, such a framework could allow better readiness estimates to better communicate “how ready for what” combinations of military assets are.
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