Overview
The Emerging Techniques Forum (ETF) is driven to improve analysis and understanding throughout the defense community by seeking out novel and leading-edge approaches, methods, and techniques - wherever they are conceived. By sharing and incorporating the latest (and in-progress) developments across government, academia, private industry, and enthusiasts, the ETF aims to support and maintain relevant, timely, and early comprehension of lessons learned that may grow to have an outsized impact on the community at large.
2020 ETF seeks advancements in tools and techniques that enable decisive action in complex environments. Our tracks explore how information aggregation, processing, and computation can improve predictions of future needs and risk assessments of complex investment and operational strategies. Many of these efforts have seen rapid maturation and evolutionary leaps in analytic capability borne from recent global crises. By applying innovative experimental designs, methodologies and cross-domain techniques to analyze data, “digital reasoning” should increase the quality, context, value, and comprehension of real-time information that’s effectively delivered to the people and places where it’s needed most.
Keynote Speakers:
Dr. Kathleen M. Carley
Dr. Carley is a Professor of Computer Science in the Institute for Software Research, IEEE Fellow, and Director of the Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) and Director of the center for Informed DEmocracy And Social-cybersecurity (IDeaS) of the Center for at Carnegie Mellon University. She joined Carnegie Mellon in 1984 as Assistant Professor Sociology and Information Systems. In 1990 she became Associate Professor of Sociology and Organizations, in 1998 Professor of Sociology, Organizations, and Information Technology, and in 2002, attained her current role as Professor of Computation, Organization, and Society. She is also the CEO of Carley Technologies Inc. aka Netanomics.
Registrants will need to download and install a free-trial version of software prior to the class. Versions will be available for both Mac and Windows.
Dr. Victoria Coleman
Dr. Victoria Coleman is the 22nd director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Most recently, Coleman was a senior advisor on microelectronics technology policy to the director of the Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society (CITRIS) at the University of California, Berkeley.
Before her time at Berkeley, Coleman was the CEO of Atlas AI P.B.C, a Silicon Valley startup that sought to apply AI solutions to sustainable development initiatives. By combining satellite data with other data sets, Atlas AI’s proprietary deep learning models helped create actionable insights for clients across governments, NGOs, and commercial companies.
Ms. Deborah C. Gordon
Ms. Deborah C. Gordon is an independent consultant providing consulting services to several small technology companies. Ms. Gordon is an Advisor to Rhombus Power, Inc. She serves on the Board of Directors of the Arms Control Association, Probability Management, Inc., The Institute for Security and Technology, Council on Strategic Risks, Peninsula Volunteers, Inc., Peninsula Volunteers Properties, and the Fort Ross Conservancy. She is an Affiliate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University from which she retired in August 2019 after 22 years as the Executive Director of the Preventive Defense Project. She is the former Mayor of Woodside, CA and served 17 years on the Town Council.
Dr. Daniel J. Ragsdale
Dr. Daniel “Rags” Ragsdale is the Principal Director for Cyber, in the Office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (Research & Technology). In that role, Dr. Ragsdale is responsible for coordinating cyber modernization efforts across the Department of Defense, with specific responsibility for the establishment of policies and for supervision over cyber modernization research and engineering, technology development, prototyping, experimentation, developmental testing, and transition activities. He is also responsible for making recommendations concerning the allocation of resources and alignment of efforts across the Department.
Major General Rich Staats
Major General (MG) Rich Staats is the Commanding General for the 75th Innovation Command, responsible for leveraging the civilian education, skills, experience and certifications resident in the US Army Reserve. As a two-star general command, the 75th is the senior military headquarters in the fourth largest city in the U.S. He has been involved in the Military Operations Research community for over forty years.
MG Staats' holds a Ph.D. from the Electrical Engineering Department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where he studied as a Hertz Fellow, as well as a Masters in Strategic Studies from the US Army War College.
Keynote Speakers:
Dr. Kathleen M. Carley
Dr. Carley is a Professor of Computer Science in the Institute for Software Research, IEEE Fellow, and Director of the Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) and Director of the center for Informed DEmocracy And Social-cybersecurity (IDeaS) of the Center for at Carnegie Mellon University. She joined Carnegie Mellon in 1984 as Assistant Professor Sociology and Information Systems. In 1990 she became Associate Professor of Sociology and Organizations, in 1998 Professor of Sociology, Organizations, and Information Technology, and in 2002, attained her current role as Professor of Computation, Organization, and Society. She is also the CEO of Carley Technologies Inc. aka Netanomics.
Registrants will need to download and install a free-trial version of software prior to the class. Versions will be available for both Mac and Windows.
Dr. Victoria Coleman
Dr. Victoria Coleman is the 22nd director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Most recently, Coleman was a senior advisor on microelectronics technology policy to the director of the Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society (CITRIS) at the University of California, Berkeley.
Before her time at Berkeley, Coleman was the CEO of Atlas AI P.B.C, a Silicon Valley startup that sought to apply AI solutions to sustainable development initiatives. By combining satellite data with other data sets, Atlas AI’s proprietary deep learning models helped create actionable insights for clients across governments, NGOs, and commercial companies.
Ms. Deborah C. Gordon
Ms. Deborah C. Gordon is an independent consultant providing consulting services to several small technology companies. Ms. Gordon is an Advisor to Rhombus Power, Inc. She serves on the Board of Directors of the Arms Control Association, Probability Management, Inc., The Institute for Security and Technology, Council on Strategic Risks, Peninsula Volunteers, Inc., Peninsula Volunteers Properties, and the Fort Ross Conservancy. She is an Affiliate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University from which she retired in August 2019 after 22 years as the Executive Director of the Preventive Defense Project. She is the former Mayor of Woodside, CA and served 17 years on the Town Council.
Dr. Daniel J. Ragsdale
Dr. Daniel “Rags” Ragsdale is the Principal Director for Cyber, in the Office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (Research & Technology). In that role, Dr. Ragsdale is responsible for coordinating cyber modernization efforts across the Department of Defense, with specific responsibility for the establishment of policies and for supervision over cyber modernization research and engineering, technology development, prototyping, experimentation, developmental testing, and transition activities. He is also responsible for making recommendations concerning the allocation of resources and alignment of efforts across the Department.
Major General Rich Staats
Major General (MG) Rich Staats is the Commanding General for the 75th Innovation Command, responsible for leveraging the civilian education, skills, experience and certifications resident in the US Army Reserve. As a two-star general command, the 75th is the senior military headquarters in the fourth largest city in the U.S. He has been involved in the Military Operations Research community for over forty years.
MG Staats' holds a Ph.D. from the Electrical Engineering Department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where he studied as a Hertz Fellow, as well as a Masters in Strategic Studies from the US Army War College.
Notable Speakers:
Dr. Gregory Avicola
Dr. Gregory Avicola joined DARPA in May 2019 as a program manager in the Tactical Technology Office. Areas of expertise include remote sensing (focus on maritime applications), undersea systems, and naval warfare. He is particularly interested in naval logistics, developing capabilities to exploit undersea mobility, improving both manned and unmanned undersea systems, and enabling undersea autonomous systems.
Dr. Robert L. Bassett
Dr. Robert L. Bassett is an Assistant Professor of Operations Research at the Naval Postgraduate School. His research interests include both theoretical and computational aspects of data-driven decision making, with emphasis on defense applications. He received his PhD from UC Davis with a dissertation on optimization methods in statistics. Before joining NPS, Dr. Bassett worked with Sandia National Laboratories and as a research mathematician for the US Department of Defense.
Ms. Christine Cowsert Chapman
Ms. Christine Cowsert Chapman is the Vice President of Asset Management and System Operations at Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E). Christine has been with PG&E for eighteen years serving in various natural gas engineering and human resources functions. In her current role, Christine provides strategic and operational leadership to the team that manages risk to PG&E’s gas assets, system, and business in real time and long term through asset management, integrity management, gas control, gas system planning, regulatory strategy, compliance, and innovation. This includes the 24/7 operations of PG&E’s Gas Operations Center, as well as managing the PG&E’s California Gas Transmission business.
Dr. Scott Nestler
Dr. Scott Nestler joined Mendoza College of Business as an associate teaching professor subsequent to his retirement from the U.S. Army after more than 25 years of service. Most recently, he was the Force Strategy Division Chief at the Center for Army Analysis. Previously, he taught at the Naval Postgraduate School and the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. He has served as an analyst and leader of analytic teams in a variety of locations, including the Pentagon and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq.
Nestler has a Ph.D. in management science from the University of Maryland – College Park, a master’s in strategic studies from the Army War College, a M.S. in applied mathematics from the Naval Postgraduate School, and a B.S. in civil engineering from Lehigh University. Additionally, he is active in the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) as part of the Analytics Certification Board (ACB), which oversees the Certified Analytics Professional (CAP) program and the INFORMS SpORts (Operations Research in Sports) Section.
Dr. Andrew Nuss
Dr. Andrew Nuss joined DARPA in November 2017 as a Program Manager in the Tactical Technology Office. His current focus areas include unmanned maritime systems, robotic naval systems, advanced maritime architectures and their rapid fielding, and novel approaches to increase platform survivability. Dr. Nuss has also served as a professional lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Naval Construction and Engineering program.
Dr. John Paschewitz
Dr. John S. Paschkewitz joined DARPA as a program manager in 2015. He is interested in new paradigms and foundational approaches for the design of complex systems and system-ofsystems (SoS) architectures. Dr. Paschkewitz’s background includes both industrial product development and R&D in thecorporate, DOE National Laboratory and Air Force S&T environments.
Dr. Sam L. Savage
Dr. Sam L. Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, PG&E, Wells Fargo, Kaiser Permanente and others, and Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics was a founding board member. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012), is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University and a Fellow of Cambridge University's Judge Business School. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University.
Mr. Harrison Schramm
An Operations Research Professional with experience in Government, Industry and Academia. He is a past Vice-President of MORS and has served in a number of professional roles, to include Chair of the Analytics cluster of INFORMS, Chair of the inaugural Emerging Techniques Special Meeting, and past Chair of the EPD as well as serving on the Edelman Prize Committee of INFORMS. He is a regular contributor to Phalanx and has a recurring column "The Five Minute Analyst" in INFORMS/Analytics Magazine. He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA). He holds professional accreditation as a statistician from both the American and Royal Statistical Societies. He is a Certified Analytics Professional of INFORMS.
Instructors
Dr. Kathleen M. Carley
Professor of Computer Science
The Institute for Software Research
Dr. Carley is a Professor of Computer Science in the Institute for Software Research, IEEE Fellow, and Director of the Center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) and Director of the center for Informed DEmocracy And Social-cybersecurity (IDeaS) of the Center for at Carnegie Mellon University. She joined Carnegie Mellon in 1984 as Assistant Professor Sociology and Information Systems. In 1990 she became Associate Professor of Sociology and Organizations, in 1998 Professor of Sociology, Organizations, and Information Technology, and in 2002, attained her current role as Professor of Computation, Organization, and Society. She is also the CEO of Carley Technologies Inc. aka Netanomics.
Registrants will need to download and install a free-trial version of software prior to the class. Versions will be available for both Mac and Windows.
Dr. Arch Turner
Senior Homeland Security Consultant
Whitney, Bradley and Brown, Inc.
Presently a Senior Homeland Security Consultant with Whitney, Bradley and Brown, Inc. Arch retired from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) in 2019, completing more than fifty years of service in support of U.S. National Security. At DHS S&T Arch served as Operations Analysis Chief; Senior Operations AnalysisTechnical Adviser; Acting Executive Agent for the DHS Federally Funded Research and Development Centers; and as a Co-Chair of the Department’s Risk Analysis and Modeling Executive Steering Committee.
MAJ Dusty S. Turner
Operations Research Systems Analyst
Data Science
MAJ Dusty Turner is an Operations Research Systems Analyst at the Center for Army Analysis. He works in the Operations Analysis division doing data science in support of current operations. His recent projects include COVID-19 modeling in support of Army senior leader decision making and leading the Introduction to R Course taught to members of the Department of Defense. He was formerly an Assistant Professor at The United States Military Academy at West Point, where he taught “Advanced Introduction to Probability and Statistics” and “Statistical Methods.” MAJ Turner is a member of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS) and The American Statistical Society (ASA). He has a M.S. in Integrated Systems Engineering with a Graduate Minor in Applied Statistics from The Ohio State University, a M.S. in Engineering Management from the Missouri University of Science and Technology, and a B.S. in Operations Research from the United States Military Academy at West Point.
Dusty enjoys his kids’ little league baseball games, watching The Price is Right during COVID isolation with his family, and going for runs with his wife.
Mr. Robert Ward
Operations Research Analyst
Operations Analysis Division
Mr. Ward is an Operations Research Analyst in the Operations Analysis Division at the Center for Army Analysis. Since 2018, he has helped organizations across the Army collect, analyze, and visualize data to support better-informed decisions, as well assisting with efforts to train analysts to use R and spread modern data science capabilities throughout the defense OR community. Most recently, Robert has worked on CAA’s COVID-19 forecasting and analysis. He holds a Master of International Affairs in International Security Policy from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a B.A. in Political Science and English from the University of Chicago.
Tutorials
Introduction to Bayesian Networks
Taught by Dr. Arch Turner
his talk will introduce participants to Bayesian Networks (BN). BN’s are graphical representations of the probabilistic relationships that exist among a set of variables. The session will begin with a brief introduction to Bayesian Probability, a review of conditional probability and Bayes Theorem and its uses. BN’s, their characteristics and uses will then be introduced and discussed. Several simple but illustrative BN’s will be presented and talked-, walked- and worked-through in class.
Two methods for developing BN’s using the “R” free-ware statistical software BNLEARN package will be presented:
- By inputting subject matter expert conditional probability inputs that describe the probabilistic relationships among domain variables,
- “Learning” a BN and its conditional probability tables from collected data.
Deterministic Modeling with Differential Equations in R and Collaboration with Git
Taught by Mr. Robert Ward and MAJ Dusty S. Turner
In this tutorial, you will explore using differential equations for modeling in R and how to work collaboratively as a team using Git and GitHub. While R is better known for its statistical modeling capabilities, R users also have access to powerful and easy-to-use differential equation solvers that can be used to build deterministic models, such as the SIR model commonly used in epidemiology. We will provide an introduction to these modeling tools and walk students through the process of setting up Git, initializing a local repository, sharing it with others via GitHub, and taking advantage of Git's highly effective tools for tracking, de-conflicting, and merging you and your collaborators' work in order to understand differential propagation models of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Learn how to:
- Get GIT configured on your computer (link, clone, push, pull, and resolve conflicts among a team)
- Apply basic differential equations in R to describe viral impacts
Technical Requirements:
- R 3.6.x or newer
- RStudio 1.2.x or newer
- Git
- Git Bash (included with Git for Windows) or another command-line application of your choice capable of using Git
Prior to class, students can download course material at an online repo we host (and we will show the students how to access this as part of the course). As a backup plan, students can manually download the repo from the website.
Dynamic Network Analytics for Influence Campaign Assessment
Taught by Dr. Kathleen M. Carley
Description: "In this tutorial, participants will use specialized software for network analysis to discover hidden patterns of disinformation and influence within social media content. Participants will need to install a software application called ora-PRO prior to the tutorial. A free trial (30 day) version is expected to be available. This course will require the participant to download and analyze social media data on their computer. For this and for ease of software install and use, we strongly recommend the use of a personal computer. For those opting to use a government computer, any and all computer, data, and network restrictions and guidance should be handled prior to the tutorial."
Visco Prize
Eugene P. Visco
1927-2019
MORS Eugene P. Visco Prize for International Collaboration in Operations Research
Established 2019
The purpose of this prize is to promote collaboration between the international operations research community and MORS by providing a high quality presentation selected at the annual Emerging Techniques Forum (ETF) to the International Symposium on Military Operational Research (ISMOR) every year. This prize will provide a Junior Analyst the opportunity to present at the ISMOR, held in the United Kingdom every summer. The selected presenter will be provided admission to the ISMOR along with housing and travel expenses.
This prize was established in March 2019 to honor and to memorialize Gene Visco, FS, who was an ardent supporter of collaboration within the international operations research community and for years represented MORS during the ISMOR. Gene was also a constant supporter of MORS junior analysts and a champion for quality presentations.
Participant Information and Links
Important: For ALL recorded sessions, the audio of the presentation defaults to mute. Be sure you turn the audio up by hovering over the recording and clicking the volume control bar. Also, when a presenter shares their slides, you can enlarge the slides by pressing the green circle button in the lower right corner.
Welcome! We thank you for your participation in the 2020 Emerging Techniques Forum!
Overview
We look forward to your participation next week, 7-10 December, at the MORS Emerging Techniques Forum (ETF)! We will be starting at 1000 EST on Monday, 7 December 2020 with a keynote presentation from Major General Richard Staats, followed by tutorials.
The workshop will be held via a new platform, JUNO Live. JUNO will be sending all registered participants an email with a temporary password asking you to create a profile on their site (you may want to check your junk email.) We anticipate the email being sent to you later today or tomorrow. We suggest you log onto the site and create your profile, enter a new password and take a look at the site prior to the meeting next week.
Please review the Agenda here. We strongly encourage you to review the instructions and links we’ve provided here, particularly if you are presenting during the ETF. There is an opportunity to practice using the controls on JUNO’s website, along with other training information. The MORS Staff is also hosting JUNO Training Sessions. Dates and times are listed below.
Pro Tips: JUNO
- Chrome is the preferred browser and best supports JUNO (ensure browser is up to date.)
- Clear cache and cookies before logging on to JUNO.
- Disable browser extensions: https://support.google.com/chrome_webstore/answer/2664769?hl=en
- Test your internet speed: https://www.speedtest.net/.
If you are a presenter, it is strongly encouraged that you disconnect your VPN before and during your presentation. You should not have trouble being connected to your VPN and on JUNO simultaneously if you are not presenting.
Steps for accessing the MORS ETF site on JUNO
- You will receive an email from JUNO with a link to create a profile. Please be sure to check your junk box. If you do not receive an email, please contact Shelbie Jenkins at shelbie.jenkins@mors.org.
- Click on the link in the email to set up your profile in JUNO. Your username is your email address and JUNO will assign you a temporary password. Create a new password and fill out the remaining questions.
- Upon entering the site, click on the circle in the upper right corner to complete your profile (i.e. add your photo, add in the times you are available to visit with colleagues, etc.) IMPORTANT: Be sure to enable the “Allow members to contact me” if you wish to be contacted by other registered attendees.
- You are now in and have access to the ETF site!
- Should you misplace your email, access the MORS ETF site here: https://etf.junolive.co/live.
- IMPORTANT: The email address used for JUNO must be the same email address used when you registered for ETF.
Recorded vs. Live Presentations
Important: Important: For ALL recorded sessions, the audio of the presentation defaults to mute. Be sure you turn the audio up by hovering over the recording and clicking the volume control bar. Also, when a presenter shares their slides, you can enlarge the slides by pressing the green circle button in the lower right corner.
- Recorded presentations will auto-play at the time the presentation is scheduled to begin, so please enter early or on time. Attendees should type their questions in the Q&A box on the right panel.
- When the recording concludes, the moderator AND presenter(s) should unmute, enable their cameras and begin facilitating the live Q&A portion.
- Microphone and camera icons can be found on the bottom left side of the screen:
- When they are red, they are LIVE/ENABLED.
- When they are white, they are MUTED/DISABLED.
Special Instructions: MODERATORS
-
- All sessions will have a green room open and available 30 minutes prior to the start of the session. Please encourage your speakers to join early to test their microphones and cameras and practice sharing their screens if they are presenting live. To enter the green room, click on the session in the schedule. As a speaker or moderator, the system will recognize you and admit you into the green room.
- Tutorials and breakouts are sessions configured so that audience members have the ability to enable their microphones and cameras. At the start of these sessions, please welcome everyone as they join and ask that they mute their microphones and keep their cameras off (the default when they join is for both to be disabled.) Encourage the audience to ask their questions in the Q&A section located on the right panel of the screen.
- General Announcements, Keynote Presentations and the Panel Discussion are configured so that the audience does not have the ability to enable their microphones and cameras.
Q&A: As the moderator, it is your call on whether you would like the audience members to audibly ask their questions. If so, please call on them and ask that they unmute themselves by clicking on the microphone symbol on the left side of the screen.
Special Instructions: PRESENTERS
Please read through the instructions above. The key items to remember are:
- Enter your session early to test the various controls
- If you recorded your presentation, it will auto-play at the time your presentation is scheduled.
- When your recording has concluded, turn on your microphone and camera (if you are presenting live, make sure they are enabled for the duration.)
- Red icons = LIVE/ENABLED
- White icons = MUTED/DISABLED
JUNO Training Sessions and Help Desk Hours
The MORS staff is here to support you with the JUNO platform. Our help desk will be open during the below days/times at this Zoom location: https://zoom.us/j/99903186990?pwd=UkpXOUl1T2YyUWo0V2p5MWErdjI3QT09
Meeting ID: 999 0318 6990
Passcode: 2020
One tap mobile
+13017158592,,99903186990#,,,,,,0#,,2020# US (Washington D.C)
+13126266799,,99903186990#,,,,,,0#,,2020# US (Chicago)
We can also be reached at 703-933-9071 and 703-933-9076.
Tutorial Software Requirements
If you plan on attending either of the below tutorials on Monday, please make sure you have the required software:
- Deterministic Modeling with Differential Equations in R and Collaboration with Git
- R 3.6.x or newer
- RStudio 1.2.x or newer
- Git
- Git Bash (included with Git for Windows) or another command-line application of your choice capable of using Git
- Dynamic Network Analytics for Influence Campaign Assessment
- Participants will need to install a software application called ora-PRO prior to the tutorial. A free trial (30 day) version is expected to be available.
Further License Keys for Downloadable software here.
This course will require the participant to download and analyze social media data on their computer. For this and for ease of software install and use, we strongly recommend the use of a personal computer. For those opting to use a government computer, any and all computer, data, and network restrictions and guidance should be handled prior to the tutorial.
For the Windows 10 user: Microsoft Windows 10 defaults to not allowing installation of software from unknown companies. However, you can change the security settings to allow installation of software from unknown sources. Once that is set, Windows will provide a warning that the software is from an unknown source, but will not block its installation.
Classified Sessions via DCS
All U.S. Citizens planning to attend virtual classified sessions via DCS must submit a visit request to MORS via JPAS.
MORS JPAS SMO Code: 6A286
Visit Dates: 10 December 2020
MORS POC: Taniesha Sims
Phone: 703-933-9073
Email: taniesha.sims@mors.org
Purpose: Emerging Techniques Forum (ETF)
To attend classified sessions, participants will need to use a SIPR URL: https://disa.deps.smil.mil/org/dcs or https://conference.apps.smil.mil to access DCS on SIPR.
DCS test sessions:
7 Dec 2020
8:30 – 9:15 and 12:00 – 12:30
Attendees will receive further instructions once your clearance has been received. If you have any questions, please contact Ms. Taniesha Sims at taniesha.sims@mors.org.