Campaign Analysis Workshop

Campaign Analysis Workshop

No workshops are currently scheduled for this topic but if you would like to set up a private workshop for your organization, please contact the MORS Staff at morsoffice@mors.org with any questions.

Campaign Analysis Workshop
0800 to 1800 EST 

Event Menu

Overview

This Workshop will be held at the SECRET/NOFORN level.

The dress for the campaign workshop is UOD or business casual.

Motivation: With the rise of peer competition, campaign analysis has taken a central focus in analyses across the government, industry, and research laboratories. The defense community is increasingly using campaign analyses to examine force structure, concepts / doctrine, and operational planning questions. The community is entering into a new era of campaign analyses that leverage federated simulation environments, volumes of data, and increased operational complexities. As a result, new and old issues have surfaced that has necessitated a community-wide review of the purpose, processes, and tools required to conduct campaign analyses.

Objective: To assist the campaign analysis community advance the state of the art by fostering discussion and collaboration across the community to jointly address the challenges we face in this new era of campaign analysis. These challenges include:

1.Maintaining and building a trained workforce in the application of best tools, analyses, and practices

2.Developing and maintaining collaboration between organizations (e.g. US Gov stakeholders, research labs, think tanks, industry, and allies)

3.Credibly incorporating new or non-integrated effects into campaign analysis (e.g. logistics, SOF, cyber, information warfare, JADC2, ISR, BMC2, space, other non-kinetic effects)

4.Learning from past successes and failures while preserving and building on the progress of successive workshops and community advancements

5.Defining the characteristics for the next generation of campaign analysis and providing suggestions to achieve stated goals

Structure: Each participant will work with a working group for this workshop. These working groups are designed to be a balance between presentations and discussion to enable its participants to make progress towards the problems that face our community. At the end of the workshop, each working group will provide a summary of what was learned, identified challenges, and identified solutions.

Keynote Speaker

Dr. Steve Stoddard
Dr. Steve Stoddard

Dr. Stoddard was appointed to the Senior Executive Service in July, 2013, and currently serves as the Director of the Center for Army Analysis (CAA) and the Army Modeling and Simulation Office (AMSO). Dr. Stoddard is responsible for directing the Army's primary study program to inform strategic and operational decisions for the Army's senior leaders. As Director of AMSO, he is responsible for the Army's M&S strategy, governance, and policy.

Tutorials

As circumstances change and new threats emerge, the Department of Defense is required to evaluate and refine capability development, force sizing, emerging warfighting concepts, and innovative approaches to these new environments.  What began in 2019 as the 2030 Joint Force Operating Scenario (JFOS) has since become a recurring process run by the Services to develop a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) paired with a given scenario influenced by Defense Planning Scenarios (DPS).  These provide the level of detail and context needed to conduct wargaming, modeling and simulation, and other analysis to inform senior military leaders, Program Objective Memorandums (POMs), force structure decisions, concept development, and follow-on studies.  To create a JFOS, the Joint Working Group (JWG), consisting of planners and analysts from the six Services, intelligence community, and several supporting commands and organizations, takes existing scenarios and CONOPS, updated threat information, and future capabilities and capacities and leverages them to develop a robust scenario and associated CONOPS set in a future time frame.  The JFOS development process is guided along the way by a panel of two-star Flag and General Officers and SES equivalents representing all Services and supporting organizations.  The scenario and CONOPS are approved at the various stages of development by a separate three-star level committee with a voting member representing each Service.

The JFOS process is now in its third iteration.  It has continued to gain support among the various Service analytical organizations and myriad other stakeholders.  The completed JFOS products have been used as the basis for analysis across the DoD including: the Chairman’s Global Integrated Wargame 21, inter-Service collaborative simulation databases, Service specific wargames and analysis, mission level modelling, and campaign modeling excursions.

Combat Forces Assessment Model (CFAM) is a mixed-integer linear program that pits a set of aircraft and weapon loads against “enemy” targets at the campaign level. The goal of the model is to destroy the targets as quickly as possible, subject to several constraints, such as the number of aircraft, how far they can fly on a full load of fuel, how fast they fly, their susceptibility to being shot down, how effective a given weapons loadout is against the targets, the aircraft beddown plan (basing) in relation to target locations, the quantity of weapons of each type, and many, many other constraints. As a campaign-level model, CFAM takes inputs from other models such as STORM (target data), TAMS (attrition data), Brawler (attrition and effects data), and the Air Force Research Labs WEAPS office (for weapons effects). Originally formulated in the 1990’s, CFAM has undergone dozens of major updates, and now CFAM 3.1 is available for users to install and run on Windows 10 machines or a Linux cluster (High-Performance Computer). This CFAM 3.1 tutorial provides a broad overview of the latest enhancements to the model and presents to the viewers the modeling techniques in place to add increased levels of resolution for quickly measuring the value of change to single or multiple parameters.

The Joint Integrated Contingency Model (JICM) is a theater campaign model currently used by the Center for Army Analysis for campaign-level assessment of military plans to include warfighting, strategic mobility, and logistics. JICM is joint by design to provide a balanced representation of service capabilities and can model multiple theaters. JICM is a deterministic model that can yield quick estimates of expected outcomes. This JICM tutorial provides an overview of the theater campaign analysis methodology and an overview of the inputs, outputs, strengths, and limitations of JICM. It describes the model implementation with several screenshots showing exactly what a JICM analyst sees when running the model.

Campaign analysis has been criticized for being slow, rigid in strategy, and restricted to a small set of experts to access. We are not proposing that all of these criticisms will go away with the introduction of BEAM, but these criticisms are some of the motivations for BEAM. What if campaign analysis could give an answer faster at a lower resolution? What if the interaction between the true SME’s who need to inform the scenario and the analysts who are building it could be sped up? What if strategy changes could be explored quickly? What if campaign analysis could be used across a broader spectrum of analysis, instead of in specialized shops? BEAM provides an opportunity to break the paradigm of how campaign analysis has been used across the analytic landscape.

During this tutorial we will illustrate BEAM in a live demonstration. We will walk through the tool showing the level of aggregation (high) that allows for this kind of broad but flexible analysis. We will demonstrate how to add regions and assets, define strategy, and explore results. We will show how to perform analysis with BEAM and what kind of insights one would hope to derive. We will discuss what kinds of problems BEAM is best suited to address and which ones it is not. Finally, we will discuss where we are in the process of BEAM development and which features are planned for future versions.

Campaign analysis of ground operations across different theaters and timeframes requires a model that produces consistent and reproducible combat samples for use in theater-level models to adjudicate campaign outcomes. The Center for Army Analysis (CAA) has put forth considerable effort to capture the most significant, tangible effects of ground operations in the combat samples for theater-level models produced by the Combat Sample Generator (COSAGE). The combat samples produced by CAA are for use in all Attrition Calibration (ATCAL)-based, theater-level models (e.g., Joint Integrated Contingency Model (JICM) and Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM)). This tutorial provides a comprehensive overview of COSAGE, summarizes CAA’s recent efforts to enhance the quality of the COSAGE combat samples, and explains the process to request the production of combat samples.

Simulation models are integral to modern scientific research, national defense, industry and manufacturing, and in public policy debates. These models tend to be extremely complex, often with thousands of factors and many sources of uncertainty. To understand the impact of these factors and their interactions on model outcomes requires efficient, high-dimensional design of experiments. Unfortunately, all too often, many large-scale simulation models continue to be explored in ad hoc ways. This suggests that more simulation researchers and practitioners need to be aware of the power of designed experiments in order to get the most from their simulation studies. Data farming is a descriptive metaphor that captures the notion of generating data purposefully to maximize the information “yield” from simulation models. Large-scale designed experiments let us grow the simulation output efficiently and effectively. We can explore large input spaces, uncover interesting features of complex simulation response surfaces, and explicitly identify cause-and-effect relationships. In this tutorial, we demonstrate the basic concepts important for designing and conducting simulation experiments, and also provide our perspective on the unique challenges and opportunities associated with applying to complex campaign models.

This tutorial will begin with a bit of history of games, game theory, and artificial intelligence to provide context on the relationships between them. It will then provide a game theory primer for gamers to highlight elements of game theory that affect game outcomes and should be considered in game design. It will then turn to the role of games in advancing artificial intelligence and the implications of game theory for classes of problems where artificial intelligence will out perform human intelligence, and classes of problems where that is highly unlikely.

Working Groups

Classified Session

The entire Campaign Analysis Workshop will contain classified discussion and/or classified briefings. In order to attend, you must have a clearance. Please submit your clearance as soon as possible using the following instructions:

Purpose - Campaign Analysis Workshop: Monday-Thursday, 25 - 28 April 2022
Level: SECRET
SMO Code: 6A286
Technical POC: Mr. Derek Pelham 703-933-9073

Location

SPA Freedom Center

2001 N. Beauregard St.
Alexandria, VA 22311
703.931.3500
Get directions

Transportation Information

Parking is available in the SPA parking garage for a daily fee of $15. The parking is located across the street from the main entrance.

There is an open-air parking lot a short walk down Beauregard Street from SPA. Parking is free and is first come, first served. The lot is behind Clyde's restaurant located at 1700 N. Beauregard Street.

U.S. Government can attempt to park at the Mark Center, or use the Metrobus 7M from the Pentagon (free to CAC holders.)

Nearest Metro Stop: Van Dorn Street

Hotel

MORS Room Block:

A small block of rooms has been reserved at the Hilton Alexandria Mark Center, located across the street from SPA. You may reserve a room here or call 703-845-1010 and use the code MORS22 when booking. Please reserve no later than 11 April 2022. Rate: $188 (per diem for April is $258)

This rate includes parking at the Hilton.

Should you have trouble booking a room, please contact Shelbie Jenkins at shelbie.jenkins@mors.org.

Meals/ Social

Lunch

Deli lunch will be provided on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday (ex: Panera) for $10 each day.

No-Host Social

There will be a No-Host Social Tuesday, 26 April at the Clyde's at Mark Center ( 1700 N Beauregard St, Alexandria, VA 22311).

Registration

The "Invoice Me" option can only be used for the registration fee. This option won't appear if you have social tickets, CEU courses or tutorials in your cart. If you need assistance registering please contact Ms. Sarah Madonia, sarah.madonia@mors.org.

Employer   Early
Ends 3/11/22
Regular
Starts 3/12/22
Ends 4/8/22
Late
Starts 4/9/22
MORS Government Sponsor*
Includes Optional Tutorial
Member $450 $500 $550
MORS Government Sponsor*
Includes Optional Tutorial
Non-Member $550 $600 $650
U.S. Federal Government
Includes Optional Tutorial
Member $500 $550 $600
U.S. Federal Government
Includes Optional Tutorial
Non-Member $600 $650 $700
National Research Partner (IDA Only)
Includes Optional Tutorial
Member $523 $573 $623
National Research Partner (IDA Only)
Includes Optional Tutorial
Non-Member $618 $668 $718
All Others
Includes Optional Tutorial
Member $550 $600 $650
All Others
Includes Optional Tutorial
Non-Member $650 $700 $750

*Government Sponsor organizations include Center for Army Analysis, HQDA/DCS Program G-8; Marine Corps Combat Development and Integration; Naval Operations, N81; SAF/SA, Studies and Analysis; OSD, A&S; and DHS S&T/OSE/ORA