Modeling Complex Warfare Workshop

24-26 March 2020
U.S. Air Force Academy
2304 Cadet Dr. 
U.S. Air Force Academy, CO 80840

Overview

This Workshop will be bi-continental, held in Melbourne (AU) and Colorado Springs (U.S.) from 24-26 March 2020 at the unclassifed level. AU and U.S. meetings will overlap for four hours per day, plus one hour for the synthesis teams.  U.S. and AU alternative 4 hour shifts will also take place, making for 13 hours of actual meeting worktime per day. There will be two or three tracks formed out of the following four analysis “need areas:” 

  • Modern and Future MDO
  • Campaign models and modeling approaches, engineering approaches, or agility in Force Design
  • Gray Zone or Conflict Short of War (CSOW) environments
  • Analysis contributions from AI and Autonomy for MDO, CSOW, and Wargaming

Complex warfare in our world is no longer an exception, but the norm.  From contamination of our weapons through “normal markets,” to election corruption from foreign or corporate entities, to the use of technical innovation to subvert good intentions to become colossal threats, to the drugging of communities that were once productive.  Only in “Western” nations are the expert military limited in how it can interact with portions of its own government to protect its nation and persons.  The national security and homeland defense community needs analytical methods to assess whether the Allied forces are designed to match and overmatch the dangers and implications of adversary intentions with their sovereign levels of capabilities and combined resolve.

MORS and its FVEY community possess the intellect and infrastructure to conceive and construct novel ORSA concepts and high efficacy techniques to model complex warfare, of which M&S is one technique and MDO is one area of military application.  The intent is to provide a brainstorming of the types of forces that are needed in 10-20 years, a sufficient review of the types existing analytical methods to assess the military utility of modern/future JIIM forces and operations, a clear understanding of gaps in our current frameworks, and an understanding of why these needs remain unfulfilled. 

At this point of departure from traditional models, MORS can elevate new model outcome ideals and sketch critical paths forward for force structure ideals and modeling requirements therein. 
One such point of departure comes from a FVEY refocus away from traditional weapons system tradespace towards looking for a new force design: 

“a revolution in defense Operations Research to better handle the interaction of complex geopolitical, social, technological, economic and cultural factors for employment of the current force and design of the future force. It represents a shift in problem choice rather than a search for better solutions to known problems. Force design is decision making about future operational capability components and interactions under conditions of high uncertainty. The MCW SRI aims to address the force design and employment problems simultaneously at two levels: firstly, by both drawing from the growing science of complexity and uncertainty and forwarding this research across traditional fields of study, to shape the development of a better overall solution to the force design problem as a whole; and secondly, by developing new methods for Operations Research to support force design and employment decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.”[1]

This outline is “mission critical” for allied thinking, in order to understand geopolitical and warfare boundaries beyond those operational today.  It is also required for a world in which the information age is expected to jumpstart a paradigm shift of warfare that includes international powers based on innovations, e.g., in biological sciences, not previously conceived.[2]  Analysis techniques that can build from a rich but lacking framework into one that optimizes to adjust the actual force design from which it operates may depend on the incorporation of the following at a minimum.  (this list is the AU list – it can be updated)

  1. Machine Discovered Behaviors
  2. Simulation-based concept exploration
  3. Force design data culture
  4. Concepts for complexity-enabled warfare
  5. Capability decision evaluation under uncertainty
  6. Modelling complex human systems
  7. Modelling unknowns
 

[1] Verbatim from the initial Concept Paper for this MORS Special Meeting, drafted by the Defence Science and Technology Group within the Australian Department of Defence, who initiated a Strategic Research Initiative (SRI) into Modelling Complex Warfighting (MCW). 

[2] Dr. Jay Schnitzer (MITRE) spoke at the ETF in 2017 about dangers foreseen in the areas of DNA writing, biomimic natural pathogens, germ-line embryos, materials that are programmable, and more.

Payment Options

The "Invoice Me" option can only be used for the registration fee.  If you need assistance registering please contact Ms. Tina Yan, tina.yan@mors.org.

U.S. Federal Govt.  
MORS Sponsor

Member

$450

U.S. Federal Govt. 
MORS Sponsor 

Non-Member 

$550  

U.S. Federal Govt.

Member

$500

U.S. Federal Govt.

Non-Member

$600

IDA Employees Only*   

Member

$523

IDA Employees Only*

Non-Member

$618

All Others

Member

$550

All Others

Non-Member

$650

Contacts

Synthesis Chairs:
U.S. - Dr. Lisa : Oakley-Bogdewic, loakley@mitre.org
AU - David Cox 

Track Leads:
U.S. - Chris Linhardt 
U.S. - MAJ Joey Hoecherl 

Event:
Ms. Jennifer Ferat, jennifer.ferat@mors.org or (703) 933-9074

Registration:
Ms. Tina Yan, tina.yan@mors.org or (703) 933-9076