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Richard H. Barchi Prize

The Richard H. Barchi Prize, named in honor of CDR Richard H. Barchi, USN (a former Director) and first presented in 1983, is awarded to recognize the best paper given at the MORS Symposium (MORSS).

Each year the Barchi Prize winner is selected from among presentations given at the previous year’s Symposium. Each Working Group, Composite Group and general session selects one presentation from all those presentations given during the three-day period. The presenter is then asked to submit his or her presentation in paper format. Once each group’s nominee has submitted a paper (or has chosen not to) the judging is held and the winning paper is announced at the following MORSS. The winner is awarded a $1,000 cash prize.
 

Nominees

2013 Nominees selected as the best paper in their working, composite or other sessions at the 80th MORS Symposium

Winners

2013 - Improving Integrated Air & Missile Defense in the Pacific Area of Responsibility
Christopher Pitcher, Mark Reid, Roxann Oyler, Kimberly Shenk, Doug Hellinger, and Christopher Hergenreter
 
Abstract: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s November 2011 announcement of the United States’ Pivot to the Pacific spelled out four lines of action for which the US military would be responsible or play a major part:  (1) strengthening our bilateral security alliances, (2) deepening our working relationships with emerging powers, (3) engaging with regional multilateral institutions, and (4) forging a broad-based military presence in the region.  As Commander US Pacific Command (CDRUSPACOM) builds strategies and capabilities to achieve these national goals, Commander Pacific Air Forces (COMPACAF) in his role as the PACOM Area of Responsibility (AOR) Area Air Defense Commander (AADC) is challenged to develop a new PACAF Strategy and a new AADC’s Integrated Air & Missile Defense (IAMD) strategy.  COMPACAF must make decisions on acquisition, deployment and employment of forces, allocation of resources, and recommendations to CDRUSPACOM on new Concept Plans and Operations Plans for the new environment.  PACAF/Aj9 has conducted or co-operated in an orchestrated series of subjective and objective analytic events (PACOM AADC’s IAMD Summit, the Battle of the Inner-Island Chain Campaign Analysis, creation of the AADC’s IAMD Strategy, COMPACAF’s Resilience Analysis Deep Dive, and IAMD Wargame IV) to provide quantitative, substantiated, facts-based information upon which to base the new strategies and plans.

2012 - PEO GCS Modernization Analysis Tool
Shatiel Edwards and Brett Haas

2011 - Optimal Transmitter Placement in Wireless Mesh Networks
Captain Paul Nicholas and Dr. David Alderson

2010 -  Whole Soldier Performance: A Value-Focused Model of Soldier Quality” 
MAJ Rob Dees, LTC Rob Kewley, US Military Academy, LTC Kelly Ward from the Department of Systems Engineering, and LTC Scott Nestler from the Department of Mathematical Sciences.

2009 – “Optimized Routing of Unmanned Aerial Systems for the Interdiction of Improvised Explosive Devices,” Johannes O. Royset and Maj Daniel N. Reber, USMC

The paper describes an optimization-based tool for selecting routes that will best employ unmanned aerial systems (UASs) for the purpose of detecting improvised explosive devices (IEDs) or related activity. The routing tool uses preprocessing procedures, an integer linear program, and an IED prediction model to direct UASs to sectors of the area of operations with high IED activity, while accounting for factors such as winds, aircraft de-confliction, and blue force activity. Initial evaluation of the routing tool through field experiments with actual UASs suggests that the tool produces realistic routes, which can be flown in the allocated amount of time, even under windy conditions.
 
2008 - “A Decision Support Tool for Optimizing Mine Roller Allocation to Counter the Improvised Explosive Device Threat in the Al Anbar Province of Iraq,” CAPT Joseph A. Mlakar
 
2007 - “Planning Intra-Theater Airlift for Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom,” LTC John W. Brau, Jr, Gerald G. Brown, W. Matthew Carlyle and Robert F. Dell
 
The Air Tasking and Efficiency Model (ATEM) plans intra-theater airlift of passengers and cargo pallets. United States Central Command (CENTCOM) provides theater-wide logistics support, including airlift, for Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan, and other operations in surrounding areas and the Horn of Africa. For OIF, CENTCOM decides daily how to use about 35 cargo airplanes of up to five different types, based at five different airfields, to move passengers and cargo pallets between many origin-destination pairs from a set of about 20 airfields. Daily, each airplane and aircrew should fly no more than a maximum number of hours, must refuel within a limited number of hours at an airfield where fuel is available, and can make no more than a maximum number of landings overall and no more than a maximum number of landings “in the box” (i.e., in a combat area). ATEM plans this intra-theater airlift by optimally selecting for each airplane a configuration — a layout of seats accommodating a number of passengers and of pallets — and assigning a route that, in concert with all other airplane configurations and routes, moves as many passengers and pallets as possible between origin and destination airfields. CENTCOM planners have used ATEM to design monthly channel schedules for OIF and OEF, choose airplane bed-down airfields, optimize fleet mix of airplane types, determine where to fuel airplanes, and schedule daily catch-up operations. ATEM has helped move more with fewer airplanes.
 
2006 - "Strategic Mobility: Building a Stochastic Critical Path Model," Stephen Nolan and Robert Stevenson

Abstract: In 2004 the Mission Area Analysis (MAA) Lab, Marine Corps Combat Development Center (MCCDC) was asked the question “What does it take to move the 2015 Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB) to the Strait of Hormuz in 14 Days?” A series of models of increasing scope and complexity were built to answer this question, culminating in “Project Arnold”, a stochastic Critical Path Model (CPM) with 5 parametric and 8 stochastic variables. Project Arnold resulted in over 690,000 model runs, from which critical insights are being drawn for the Marine Corps leadership.
 
This paper describes the “spiral” development of the series of models from brainstorming sketches on a white board through an Excel-based CPM, integration of Microsoft Access, the decision to move to stochastic variables, and the use of multiple PCs to process the data. With each loop in the spiral, more questions arose yielding greater scope, which in turn demanded greater capability from the model and innovation from the analysts. The thoughts, problems and work-arounds through each cycle in the process are the focus of this paper, with results and insights included.
 
The Air Tasking and Efficiency Model (ATEM) plans intra-theater airlift of passengers and cargo pallets. United States Central Command (CENTCOM) provides theater-wide logistics support, including airlift, for Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan, and other operations in surrounding areas and the Horn of Africa. For OIF, CENTCOM decides daily how to use about 35 cargo airplanes of up to five different types, based at five different airfields, to move passengers and cargo pallets between many origin-destination pairs from a set of about 20 airfields. Daily, each airplane and aircrew should fly no more than a maximum number of hours, must refuel within a limited number of hours at an airfield where fuel is available, and can make no more than a maximum number of landings overall and no more than a maximum number of landings “in the box” (i.e., in a combat area). ATEM plans this intra-theater airlift by optimally selecting for each airplane a configuration — a layout of seats accommodating a number of passengers and of pallets — and assigning a route that, in concert with all other airplane configurations and routes, moves as many passengers and pallets as possible between origin and destination airfields. CENTCOM planners have used ATEM to design monthly channel schedules for OIF and OEF, choose airplane bed-down airfields, optimize fleet mix of airplane types, determine where to fuel airplanes, and schedule daily catch-up operations. ATEM has helped move more with fewer airplanes.
 
"That I have hoisted sail to all the winds, which should transport me farthest from your sight." Shakespeare, Sonnett
 
2005 - “Reducing Aircraft Down for Lack of Parts with Sporadic Demand,” Tovey C. Bachman
Abstract: In the military aerospace environment, certain repair parts are infrequently demanded, but stocked because they are essential to maintaining a weapon system critical to the war-fighter. Because of their sporadic demand, it is difficult to decide when to buy these items and in what quantities. As systems become more reliable and failure rates decrease, the number of these infrequently demanded parts is likely to grow. Earlier studies for the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)—organizations that manage parts inventories for repairing complex systems—found the Peak ordering policy the author invented significantly reduced wholesale wait-time and backorders. Rigorous new experiments confirm the benefits of the Peak policy, and show it can reduce retail wait-time and backorders as well. By considering the distribution of retail backorders, or “holes,” over an aircraft squadron, we estimate the resulting reduction in the number of aircraft down for lack of parts. We also analyze the policy’s near-term effect on inventory value and procurement workload, showing that the Peak policy can reduce both within a few years of policy initiation. After 5 years of development and review, the Peak policy is mature enough for implementation. A live test is underway, and broader implementation is under consideration.
 
2004 - "Unit Manning," Mike McGinnis and Dave Saunders

Abstract: This paper outlines work of the authors in support of the Unit Manning initiative directed by the Secretary of the Army. In this work manning concepts are explained and analyzed, Unit Manning concepts are developed, and a scheduling model that was utilized to analyze the effect of Unit Manning on the Army as a whole is discussed. The heuristic model is rules based and calculates a Unit Manning and Unit Rotation Schedule of the Army’s 33 Brigade Combat Teams. The model conducts two passes over the time horizon, first calculating a rotation schedule and then overlaying a unit manning schedule on those rotations. The rules are adjustable by fourteen inputs, thus allowing the user to determine the effects of policies throughout the 164-month planning horizon. Output of the model consists of a Manning and Rotation schedule that additionally supports analysis of transformation decisions, and identification of friction points in terms of unit availability and personnel requirements.
 
2003 - "Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR)," Sean O’Brien

Abstract: Military planners, defense analysts, diplomats, and legislators need better tools and models to provide them with better insights into where, when and to what extent country instabilities might challenge national security interests so they can anticipate, plan and budget for these possible occurrences in advance. This study draws upon the state strength literature, uses recently developed data-mining tools and draws upon an extensive database that includes annually aggregated data covering political, economic, and socio-cultural domains for some 159 countries over the period 1975-1999 to forecast the likelihood that countries throughout the world will experience a certain level of intensity of instability over the period 2001-2015. The study uses a pattern classification algorithm-Fuzzy Analysis of Statistical Evidence (FASE)—developed by Chen (2000) on behalf of the U.S. Army to identify and analyze the relationships between country macro-structural factors and historical occurrences of instability. A split-sample validation design is used to evaluate the ability of FASE to generate competent predictions, using the standard performance metrics overall accuracy, recall and precision. The results demonstrate the potential capability of the model to accurately forecast not just the occurrence, but also the level of intensity of country instability six years in advance with about 80% overall accuracy. The forecasts generated through the year 2015 suggest that South Asia and East Africa will continue to harbor highly unstable states. However, most of the states expected to improve their prospects for greater stability are also located in these regions.
 
2002 - "F-15/AIM-120 AMRAAM Weapons Envelopes: A Unique Application of Operations Research During Operational Testing," Branford J. McAllister
 
Abstract: Air-to-air combat often is characterized by tradeoff decisions involving lethality and survivability. For example, the choices of radar mode and shooter maneuvers that are best for the success of a missile (lethality) place the shooter at greater risk to a successful engagement by his adversary (survivability). This paper documents the results of an operational test and evaluation (OT&E) assessing these tradeoffs using operations research tools. The test had two objectives: (1) assess the lethality of the AIM-120 air-to-air missile and the validity of F-15-computed envelopes and displays as a function of radar mode and shooter post-launch maneuvers, and (2) evaluate the effects of pot-launch maneuvering on survivability during air-to-air engagements. There were three noteworthy aspects of this evaluation. The use of Design of Experiment (DOE) and statistical techniques to plan the test, execute flight missions and simulations, and analyze results. The second was the marriage of open-air flight test and simulation models to obtain realistic and tactically sound test data. The third was a set of conclusions and recommendations pertaining to the tactical decisions (tradeoffs) regarding radar mode and shooter maneuvers, and the impact of those decisions on engagement success.
 
2001 - "Troop and Equipment Movement Model," Robert L. Shearer

Abstract: Military planning and analysis of operations on the Korean Peninsula require understanding of the potential North Korean (nK) ground attack. Understanding how these factors interact is essential in developing many products required by both planners and analysts. Unfortunately, many tools currently utilized to gain such an understanding are deterministic, thus failing to take into account the variability inherent in the operation, and time intensive, discouraging sensitivity analysis. The Center for Amy Analysis has developed a network model, the Troop and Equipment Movement Model that provides a stochastic analytical tool to help in understanding how such an attack could occur. The model simulates the movement of North Korean forces from their current garrisons to their respective mobility corridors along the Korean demilitarized zone. As output, the model provides numerous quantitative reports that support joint Army/Air Force decision making processes.
 
2000 - "Dynamic Routing of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Using Reactive Tabu Search," Kevin P. O'Rourke, T. Glenn Bailey, Raymond Hill and William B. Carlton
Abstract: In this paper we consider the dynamic routing of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) currently in operational use with the US Air Force. Dynamic vehicle routing problems (VRP) have always been challenging, and the airborne version of the VRP adds dimensions and difficulties not present in typical ground-based applications. Previous UAV routing work has focused primarily on static, pre-planned situations; however, scheduling military operations, which are often ad-hoc, drives the need for a dynamic route solver that can respond to rapidly evolving problem constraints. With these considerations in mind, we examine the use of a Java-encoded metaheuristic to solve these dynamic routing problems, explore its operation with several general problem classes, and look at the advantages it provides in sample UAV routing problems. The end routine provides routing information for a UAV virtual battlespace simulation and allows dynamic routing of operational missions.
 
1999 - "Upgrading Complex Systems of Systems: A Caiv Methodology For Warfare Area Requirements Allocation," Ronald R. Luman
 
Abstract: The engineering of complex systems of systems has received greatly increased attention in recent years. Although the characteristics and system engineering challenges associated with systems of systems are well understood, effective architecting approaches that enable cost/performance trades are still immature.
 
A systematic approach to considering how best to upgrade specific, complex systems of systems is postulated and demonstrated. Treating cost as the independent variable (CAIV), it seeks to find the "best" point design that may involve upgrading all component systems simultaneously, not just one at a time. The process has been demonstrated on a naval mine countermeasures system of systems representation of sufficient complexity to demonstrate feasibility of the approach. A constrained, nonlinear optimization problem is formulated whose objective function is a representation of the top-level measure of effectiveness (MOE), with constraints represented by functionalized Performance-Based Cost Models, secondary MOEs, and technology-driven bounds on system measures of performance (MOPs). Both closed-form and simulation-based optimization approaches have been demonstrated, including an efficient constrained stochastic optimization method necessitated by the use of simulation to generate MOEs.
 
This quantitative process for developing system of systems upgrade options for very complex situations can result in more effective and comprehensive systems acquisition and technology investment strategies.
 
1998 - "An Application of Exploratory Analysis: The Weapons Mix Problem," Arthur Brooks, Bart Bennett and Steve Bankes

Abstract: Over the last several years, a new approach to model-based analysis has been developed at RAND. This approach, exploratory analysis, greatly expands on traditional analytic approaches in order to enhance understanding of complex problems, provide a wider range of information for decision makers, improve comparison between alternative models, and thereby enable greater comprehension of policy options. This paper reviews the methodology of exploratory analysis and its advantages over traditional analysis in the context of a search for the preferred weapon mix. We begin by walking through a traditional analytic approach and showing the kinds of results that are often observed. We then perform exploratory analysis, requiring a large number of computational experiments-on the same problem, and show that it provides more information and keener insights than we originally obtained. We continue by describing exploratory analysis more generally, and demonstrate its benefits to the decision maker and the analyst. We also discuss what is required for its routine use.This paper provides a model of Soldier performance to address the question “What is a Quality Soldier?”  With Value-Focused Thinking as a philosophical approach, and with the mathematical methodology of multi-objective decision analysis, we present a holistic model of WholeSoldier Performance in the moral, cognitive, and physical domains.  Routinely implemented across the entire force, this model will provide a continuous measure of performance suitable for use as an endstate metric reflecting what we want in Soldiers.   With this information, the Army will be able to better recruit, assign, mentor, train, retain, and promote Soldiers.

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