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MOR Journal Abstracts
Volume 10 (2005)

Number 1
Number 2
Number 3
Number 4

Volume 10 Number 1

Proposed Network Centric Warfare Metrics: From Connectivity to the OODA Cycle (Michael F. Ling, Terry Moon and Ed Kruzins)

The OR profession has been grappling with the problem of developing metrics to evaluate the contribution of NCW to military operations. Measures such as richness and reach have been introduced and provide a qualitative assessment of NCW approaches. Using these concepts, and the well-established concept of the OODA loop, the authors have attempted to define metrics that can be quantitatively and objectively measured. These provide a departure point for further discussion and, hopefully, further development of quantitative measures of NCW. (Pg. 5)

The Bang-Soak Theory of Missile Attack and Terminal Defense (Alan Washburn)

This paper describes a spreadsheet-level model for analyzing attacks by a small, mixed collection of ICBMs, perhaps including decoys, on a set of targets individually defended by terminal ABMs. The central questions are how a fixed supply of ABMs should be divided up among the targets, and the resulting effectiveness of the optimized defense.  All ABMs are assumed perfect in the sense that each ABM eliminates the reentry vehicle at which it is aimed.  Since the ABM assignments are apparent to the attacker, he can “soak them up” by presenting the appropriate number of his least effective reentry vehicles to the subject target.  The target is then vulnerable to any remaining “bangs” among the attackers. (Pg. 15)

Planning Dissimilar Paths for Military Units (Karthik Thyagarajan, Rajan Batta, Mark H. Karwan and  Robert J. Szczerba)

We consider the problem of routing aircraft during mission ingress.  The objective is to avoid mission detection—achieved by developing spatially and temporally different paths for the aircraft.  To apply the methods developed in this paper we first need to use terrain information to develop a network over which the aircraft are routed.  This network development is done using GIS software and some basic rules for link lengths.  The routing methodology itself uses concepts from well-studied problems in the OR literature—the p-dispersion problem and the quadratic semi-assignment problem.  It also uses Tabu search and other heuristic methods for solving these problems.  An example is provided to illustrate the methods and to gain insight into the solutions.  Extensive statistical testing is also performed on a case stud—developed from a section of Tioga County, New York.  Based on the results it appears that the methods are viable in that spatially and temporally different routes can be generated with reasonable computational effort. (Pg. 25)

Evaluation of Mobilization and Deployment Plan of an Armored Battalion (Selim Müslüm and İhsan Sabuncuoğlu)

Being ready for war as soon as possible and with minimum casualties during the crises is the first mission of the troops.  Mobilization and deployment plans arise as the most important tools for Army as they cover all the activities that troops must execute to respond against enemy immediately. In this paper, we study the performance of the mobilization and deployment plans of a Turkish armored battalion via simulation. The proposed simulation model is developed for military operation planners to analyse mobilization and deployment operation of troops early in decision process; perform bottleneck analysis and take necessary actions for the main problem areas. The proposed model can also reduce the risk of military operations before conducting them in actual war conditions. Moreover, it is used to identify the significant factors of enemy threat, detect the most hazardous region and the most hazardous factor for each region, and discover the system boundaries. The simulation model is developed using ARENA simulation system. The output of the model is analysed by the experimental design and ranking/selection procedures. A related bibliography is also provided in the paper. (Pg. 43)

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Volume 10 Number 2

Input-Output Modeling for Assessing Cascading Effects (Mark A. Gallagher, Anthony W. Snodgrass and Gregory J. Ehlers) 

With the advances in modern technology military planners are increasingly being tasked with assessing the broader economic and political impacts of military actions.  In this paper the authors use a classical economic model develop by Wasley Leontief to asses those impacts.  The Leontief input-output model is an extremely simple yet versatile linear program that can model economies at any level from the international to local.  The authors create a scenario using actual region economic data and asses the impact of various military and political actions on that region.  Specifically, the economic impacts of peacekeeping, an embargo and several different attack strategies are assessed.  The attack strategies used traditional conventional attack planning methodology to determine probability of damage and then apply those to determine the impact to the economy. (Pg. 5)

Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis of Critical Information Systems (Donald L. Buckshaw, Gregory S. Parnell, FS, Willard L. Unkenholz, Donald L. Parks, James M. Wallner and O. Sami Saydjari)

Information assurance is critical to future military operations.  This paper describes a value-based information assurance methodology for Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis (MORDA) of critical information systems.  The MORDA methodology was has been successfully applied on seven major Department of Defense risk assessment studies.  MORDA is a quantitative risk assessment and risk management process that uses risk analysis techniques, multiple objective decision analysis models, and portfolio analysis techniques to evaluate information system designs.  The process helps identify best allocation of system design and operation resources that will ensure an operable information system in a hostile and malicious operating environment. (Pg. 19)

Critical Chain Project Scheduling for C-130 Aircraft Isochronal Inspection (Stephen M. Swartz and Daniel D. Mattioda)

The major contribution of this article is a demonstration of a modified Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) algorithm developed by Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt called the “Critical Chain” (CC) method of project scheduling.  The CC rules were applied to a C-130 Isochronal Inspection process, in order to assess the advantages and/or appropriateness of the method.  The research found that while improved performance in project durations were not demonstrated directly, the CC algorithm provides for improved overall project duration estimates.  The improvement in duration estimates can be useful to mission schedulers, who rely on accurate estimations to assign resources to missions. (Pg. 39)

Input Feature Selection For Automatic Target Recognition of Temporal Data (Trevor I. Laine and Kenneth W. Bauer)

Prior to engaging hostile targets, USAF doctrine requires a high level of confidence to “label” each target correctly.  To increase “label” accuracy, combat identification may fuse data from multiple sensors through time.  Automatic target recognition (ATR) algorithms may then be required to fuse sensor data that is highly correlated.  The authors suggest the use of a “one big net” neural network model to fuse all sensor information.  To improve classification accuracy state-of-the art feature selection methods are compared for a temporal neural network.  A reduced set of input features is then observed to reduce classification accuracy variance while retaining the mean classification performance. (Pg. 51)

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Volume 10 No 3

Using Neural Networks for Estimating Cruise Missile Reliability (Maj Donald Hoffman, Prof. Kenneth W. Bauer and Major Stephen P. Chambal)

In an effort to assist Air Combat Command (ACC) in its efforts to improve its current methodology for predicting the reliability of its Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) and Advanced Cruise Missile (ACM) stockpiles; an easy to use and maintain model was developed. The requirements were a model that delivers a 24-month prediction of cruise missile reliability using existing data sources, collection methods and software.  It should be easily maintainable and developed to allow a layperson to enter updated data and receive an accurate reliability prediction. Such a model is presented which allows for the fusion of logistics regression, feed-forward neural networks and radial basis function neural network models. (Pg. 5)

Ship Repair Workflow Cost Model (Michael E. McDevitt, Michael W. Zabarouskas and John C. Crook)

The effect of intermittent work patterns on the costs of ship repair and maintenance were modeled for one San Diego shipyard for proposal development purposes. The system dynamics model allows the shipyard to experiment with different patterns of work, availability schedules, hours, repair availability length and start dates to determine the overall loading of the shipyard’s seventeen trades and four skill levels. Important factors considered are volume, productivity, experience, man-day rate and error rate in generating validated estimates of work to be scheduled, actual work accomplished, workforce used and the cost to the government. The model is still in use and has been updated annually since its inception in 2003. (Pg. 25)

Refinement of Estimates: Using Logistic and Multiple Regression to Predict Cost Growth (Prof Edward D. White III and Maj John Bielecki)

Assessing cost growth for major Department of Defense weapon systems can be a difficult task to accomplish.  Although experience and subjective reasoning has its place, incorporating statistical analysis in this assessment is a valuable tool to consider.  Not only are empirical data and historical trends important for statistical analysis, so is the methodology chosen.  In this study, the authors highlight a two-step regression procedure for predicting the likelihood and expected percentage increase of cost growth.  Using this methodology, they produce statistically significant models highlighting the viability of ordinary least squares regression in conjunction with logistic regression for cost analysts to consider and to adopt for future uses. (Pg. 45)

Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Oral History Project Interview of E.B. Vandiver, III, FS (Michael Garrambone and Dr. Robert S. Sheldon, FS)

No Executive Summary. (Pg. 57)

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Volume 10 Number 4

Equipping Army Distribution Organizations Based On Modeling And Simulation (LTC Gregory H. Graves)

The U.S. Army Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM) has developed an improved methodology to determine container and material handling equipment (CMHE) requirements to support theater distribution doctrine and the Army transformation. LTC Greg Graves shows how spreadsheet models and simulation are used together to determine the type and quantity of CMHE required for a unit to achieve a designated level of throughput. Sensitivity analysis shows the change in the level of performance caused by deviating from the baseline requirement.  This methodology is being used by combat developers at CASCOM to evaluate and improve equipment levels for current and future organizations. (Pg. 5)

Analysis and Visualisation of Surveillance Coverage by Scan Mapping (Patrick Hew)

This paper introduces scan mapping for analysing and visualising surveillance coverage, a technique that provides insight into the collective performance of a surveillance force against a region of responsibility over time. The technique departs from existing methods by its study of operations as conducted, rather than of abstract predictions, and for its study of quality of coverage as distinct from target detection and response.

Scan mapping is built on the modelling of surveillance assets through swaths, geographic regions monitored over intervals of time. The swaths are projected in space to generate a scan history, from which dwell, revisit, and latency can be derived. These constructs are amenable to both quantitative, statistical analysis and qualitative, map-based visualisation. The underlying swath modelling factors out the technological details of individual surveillance assets, and brings out the way that multiple assets complement each other. The outputs can be compared with benchmarks for reporting on effectiveness, can be used to guide the design of operations, and can provide the baseline for correction of observations.

The Defence Science and Technology Organisation has used scan mapping in operations analysis support to Australia’s Northern Command, has suggested it for support to decision-making on equipment acquisition, and has proposed it for integration into Australia’s Joint Command Support System to boost situation awareness. Scan mapping is software intensive and requires good operational data, and thus draws on ongoing advances in scientific software and Knowledge Management. (Pg. 17)

A Stochastic Salvo Model Analysis of the Battle of the Coral Sea (Michael J. Armstrong and Michael B. Powell)

Historians and "armchair admirals" are fond of speculating about how military leaders might have altered history if they had made just one decision differently.  Michael Armstrong and Michael Powell provide a more quantitative approach to such speculation for the 1942 carrier battle that saved Port Moresby from Japanese invasion.  They consider “what-if” questions such as: What if one more USN aircraft carrier had been sent south to the Coral Sea, instead of west to the Doolittle raid on Tokyo?  They do this by combining historical data with a recently developed stochastic model for salvo combat. (Pg. 27)

Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Oral History Project Interview of Saul I. Gass (Gene Visco, FS and Bob Sheldon, FS)

No Executive Summary. (Pg. 57)

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