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MOR Journal Abstracts
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Towards a Formal Theory of Aggregation (Bruce W. Fowler)
The problem of aggregation is addressed from the standpoint of symmetry preservation, thus defining a formal approach to aggregation. Two methods for aggregating from the heterogeneous Quadratic Lanchester formalism to the homogeneous Quadratic Lanchester formalism are presented. Intensive aggregation, which is independent of the Force Strength components, is appropriate for situations where the Attrition Rate Coefficient tensor is dense and irreducible. Extensive aggregation, an approximate methodology which is dependent on the Force Strength components, may be used when these conditions are not satisfied. An example of aggregation to either the heterogeneous or the homogeneous formalism from platform level simulation results is presented and supplemented with an explicit script of a symbolic algebra program exercise. Finally, the Formal Aggregation methodology is compared with the Amti-Potential Potential method. (Pg. 5)
The Generation, Use, and Misuse of "Pks" in Vulnerability/Lethality Analyses (Dr. Deitz and Dr. Starks)
During the mid-1980's ballistic live-fire legislation focused attention not only on full-platform testing but vulnerability simulation tools as well. Juxtaposing test results and model predictions revealed substantial model limitations and areas for improvements. These insights led to a series of new V/L models which delineate platform damage, platform capability and platform utility, as well as the way in which these metrics are linked, one to another. This paper reviews the philosophical underpinnings of this work and emphasizes the problems and possible solutions of the linkage between vulnerability models and force-on-force models. (Pg. 19)
Scheduling Simulation-Based Training (Michael L. McGinnis and Robert G. Phelan Jr.)
In the future, the United States Army will train thousands of soldiers each year in simulation facilities such as the Close Combat Tactical Trainer (CCTT). In many respects, training success depends upon effective scheduling that maximizes the use and utilization of training resources. In the past, manual methods were used to schedule training scenarios and training resources over the schedule horizon. This paper presents an automated heuristic approach for scheduling training scenarios and resources for simulation training centers. We describe the scheduling problem, present a mathematical formulation of the problem, and discuss implementation of a heuristic procedure in a decision support system (DSS) for scheduling. Computational results for the heuristic illustrate the method provides "good" solutions based on several performance measures: training quality, resource utilization, and scheduling time. (Pg. 35)
Implementing Information Warfare in the Weapon Targeting Process (Kenneth P. Haertling and Richard F. Deckro)
Information warfare and information operations are becoming increasingly critical considerations in defense planning and execution. A key step in integrating the use of information warfare weapons into the targeting process is to begin to model their implementation.
In this study Ken Haertling, Dick Deckro, and Jack Jackson presents a "first cut" at incorporating soft-kill weapons into the targeting process. Doctrine in information warfare is reviewed. A series of screening procedures based on the six pillars of information warfare coupled with mission objectives are then built. A mathematical programming based methodology is developed for allocating a mix of information warfare and conventional weapons to a target set to accomplish specific operational goals. (Pg. 51)
An Application of Exploratory Analysis: The Weapon Mix Problem (Arthur Brooks, Bart Bennett and Steve Bankes)
Often, model-based military analysis consists of examining the effect of a policy within the context of plausible, best-estimate current or future scenarios. A great deal of time is spent precisely defining all of the data items that make up the scenario. Initial model runs are used to help "tune" the data and establish the base-case. Concern about variations in the data lead to sensitivity analyses to better understand the impact on result measures. Unfortunately, these sensitivity analyses often produce troubling results: Changing the input conditions slightly causes some output values to change dramatically and erratically–and frequently in non-intuitive ways. Analysts and decisionmakers often interpret these outcomes as indicative of errors in the model or data, which sometimes leads to discrediting the model (and the analysis) altogether. In this paper, we show by example that the model and data may not be at fault; rather, the problem may be with how the model is used. In the example, we walk through a traditional analytic approach to the weapon mix problem, yielding the trouble just described. We then perform a different analysis on the same problem, model, and data based on a large number of computational experiments. We show that this kind of analysis provides deeper insights into the problem and greater information for the decisionmaker. We define this new kind of analysis as "Exploratory Analysis," describe it more generally, and discuss its benefits to the decisionmaker and analyst. We also review the requirements for routine use of this methodology. (Pg. 67)
Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Oral History Project Interview with Mr. Clayton J. Thomas, FS (Gene Visco, FS and Robert S. Sheldon)
Interview with Clayton J. Thomas, conducted by Gene Visco, FS and Robert Sheldon. (Pg. 7)
The "Knee of a Curve" - Useful Clue But Incomplete Support (Clay Thomas, FS and Bob Sheldon)
This paper describes the concept of the "knee of a curve" as used to illuminate trade spaces for resource investment decisions. The knee is generally considered to be the point beyond which the curve flattens out, meaning the return on investment is diminishing. Although the concept of the knee seems quite intuitive, it can be ambiguous when applied to generic cost-performance functions. This paper presents two distinct mathematical interpretations of the knee using Calculus and Analytic Geometry: first, the point of maximum curvature; and second, a derivation using the area between the curve and the curve’s upper bound. This paper concludes that the knee can provide useful clues in the Analysis of Alternatives, but is by no means conclusive. (Pg. 17)
Course Scheduling and Timetabling at USMA (Hanif D. Sherali, Patrick J. Driscoll)
In 1997, the U.S. Military Academy at West Point began the complete replacement of its antiquated information management system with a new corporate database system. This system is intended to support all academic and installation activities. Hanif Sherali and Pat Driscoll developed an integer linear programming model to replace the predominantly manual scheduling and timetabling system with an automated system capable of generating student academic schedules and analyzing "what if?" scenarios in a reasonable amount of time. Using the results of this study, the time required for the Registrar’s Office to produce conflict free academic schedules for the entire student population was reduced from several weeks to several hours. (Pg. 25)
A Methodology for Evaluating and Enhancing C4 Networks (Christine C. Davis, Richard F. Deckro and Jack A. Jackson)
The need to deploy and enhance C4 networks is a key operational problem for today's military and our nation's industries. With the ever-increasing demand for computer and communications resources, the need to enhance existing systems and to design new capabilities is a paramount concern. In this study Christine C. Davis, Richard F. Deckro and Jack A. Jackson presents a systematic methodology for evaluating and expanding a C4 network system. The methodology incorporates expert opinion and military operational requirements. The methodology supports assessment of C4 network systems expansion options through the use of network flow, value assessment, and expansion models. Through the use of mathematical programming, network flow analysis, and value focused thinking, the approach provides insight into the tradeoffs that can be made when enhancing a system and the driving factors behind the systems scores. (Pg. 45)
Response Surface Modeling of Campaign Objectives Using Factor Analysis (James B. Grier, T. Glenn Bailey and Jack A. Jackson)
Decisions and recommendations on weapon system acquisition require objective measures of effectiveness to determine how such programs support the Defense Planning Guidance. Unfortunately, such force structuring decisions are difficult to evaluate in a comprehensive framework that includes all of the major functional areas of a joint environment. Furthermore, such evaluations should, if possible, link alternative force structures to theater-level campaign outcomes in an explicit and impartial manner. In this paper Jim Grier, Glenn Bailey, and Jack Jackson present a new modeling approach to link budget expenditures to campaign objectives. The key idea is to use the technique of factor analysis to reduce the large output dimensionality of a theater-level warfare simulation to a reduced number of factors that represent understandable campaign objectives. When combined with standard experimental design and response surface methods, the authors demonstrate how this approach can generate a simple low-order polynomial that identifies the marginal impact of a change in the availability of a particular aircraft or weapon on the simulation model’s prediction of campaign-level outcomes. (Pg. 61)
Master Scheduling and Tracking Aircraft Upgrades (David L. Kelley)
This decision support tool automates what traditionally has been an unwieldy, time consuming, complicated planning task. It is a spreadsheet-based integer programming methodology for creating and periodically updating master schedules needed for major aircraft upgrades and for implementing engineering changes. By explicitly including funding constraints, production constraints and requirements, opportunities for economies from common installation setups, and degradation of fleet operational readiness due to scheduled aircraft downtime, it effectively integrates the interests of the four principle stakeholders in the master scheduling process. (Pg. 71)
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Route Selection Using Reactive Tabu Search (Joel L. Ryan, T. Glenn Bailey, James T. Moore, and William B. Carlton)
In recent years the Air Force has begun employing unmanned systems, such as the Predator unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), on surveillance and reconnaissance missions in the Balkans and Southwest Asia. The typical mission profile often involves fifty or more targets during a 24-hour period, where each individual target requires that overhead surveillance begin within a specified time of the day. Furthermore, the amount of reconnaissance time required for each target is unknown in advance, and surface-to-air threats can exist both enroute and at certain targets. Consequently, these conditions present a major challenge to UAV operators and mission planners when deciding how to sequence a mission’s targets. In this paper Joel Ryan, Glenn Bailey, Jim Moore and Bee Carlton present a reactive tabu search (RTS) heuristic within a Monte Carlo simulation to solve such routing problems for UAVs. Their formulation models this problem as a multiple traveling salesman problem with time windows, with the hierarchical objective of first maximizing expected target coverage, then minimizing total travel time. The authors demonstrate their technique on a notional Bosnia scenario using an object-oriented implementation of this approach. (Pg. 5)
An Historical Perspective on Operations Research in the United States Air Force (Edited by Carl M. Harris and Frank Trippi)
The following paper is an electronically scanned version of an in-office manuscript prepared by Dr. LeRoy A. Brothers in September 1952, at which time he was Chief of the Operations Analysis Division in the Office of the Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations. The paper provides a complete discussion of the origins, development and successful application of operations analysis in the Air Force up to the middle of the Korean War. Roy Brothers' formal career in OR only spanned the brief period 1943-1958, taking him from the faculty at Drexel Institute first into operations analysis dealing with targets and weapons for the war in the Far East and the U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey operations in Japan, and then to civilian time as a coordinator of strategic, tactical and defense studies at Air Force Headquarters in Washington, D.C. Dr. Brothers returned to Drexel in Fall 1958 as Dean of the School of Science and Engineering. But, despite his relatively short career in OR, his contributions to OR were significant. Throughout his time with the Air Force, he showed outstanding insights regarding the role of quantitative methods in national defense decision making, and was an exemplary leader of the kinds of interdisciplinary teams of civilian and career staff so necessary for military problem solving. In 1955, LeRoy A. Brothers served as the fourth President of the Operations Research Society of America, and his term was marked by special foci on understanding the major ingredients of successful OR project work and the development of appropriate paradigms for OR education. We believe that Dr. Brothers' words are especially germane for today's community of practicing military operations research analysts. (Pg. 25/26)
Modelling The Mobile Land Battle: Combat Degradation and Criteria for Defeat (L.R. Speight And D. Rowland)
This article reviews some of the evidence concerning what is known about the degradation of combat skills in battle. It puts forward a scheme for the representation of this effect in battle models, and then links this to the odds of ‘victory’ or ‘defeat’ in mobile land warfare. The historical evidence suggests that, in mortal combat, only a modest proportion of weapon crews can be relied on to make a fully active contribution to the battle. Of the remainder some will make only an intermittent contribution, and some no contribution at all. It appears that there are relatively stable differences in these proportions from one army to another. The evidence also suggests that the contribution of the less effective is likely to be somewhat more in the attack than in the defence. The article shows how this phenomenon could affect the form of mathematical models and predictions commonly used to represent combat attrition. Historical analysis also suggests that, at the tactical level, successful resistance to attack depends less on attrition than it does on maintaining the spatial integrity of the defence. Clearly, this integrity is more likely to be compromised as the proportion of non-contributing defenders increases. A simple modelling scheme is therefore proposed. That sector in which the attacker intends to break through is designated as the ‘critical point’. If, when the attacker reaches this ‘critical point’, the number of his survivors equals or exceeds a pre-determined multiple of the active surviving defenders in this sector, then the attack will be deemed to have ‘succeeded’. Although simplistic, and obviously in need of refinement, this scheme does provide a plausible explanation for some observed operational relationships: that armies which characteristically impose low casualty rates on their attackers tend to surrender when their own casualty rates are low, and also tend to retreat at a faster rate as a function of local force ratio. (Pg. 45)
Environmental Factors in Amphibious Operations (Donald R. Del Balzo, Paul A. Vodola and Jerry D. Beveridge)
This article provides an overview of an effort to quantify the impact of environmental factors on amphibious operations. Two primary objectives of the analysis are summarized:
| Develop a methodology to rank-order environmental factors in proportion to their impact on warfare effectiveness. |
| Demonstrate the operational impact of the environment using methods and measures employed in high-level studies as part of the Navy assessment and budgeting process. |
A decision-theoretic methodology was developed to rank-order a complete spectrum of 36 environmental factors. The study determined that factors such as visibility and terrain that impact fundamental capabilities such as sensing, mobility, and targeting, would top the list in most scenarios. The ranking of individual factors within those and other broad categories is sensitive to scenario, season, and to the anticipated concept of force employment. The operational analysis demonstrated how adverse conditions could defeat a mission plan and used a high-level measure of effectiveness to indicate the resulting impact on mission success. The rank-ordering methodology provides a big-picture operational perspective to researchers in environmental science, modeling, and data collection. The high-level impact analysis puts environmental research and products on the same footing as traditional research, development, and procurement of combat systems from the perspective of program planners and decision-makers. Such analysis highlights the extent to which operational assessment analysis depends on the environmental context and allows environmental programs and products to be traded off against sensors, weapons, and platforms. These methodologies could be adapted to assess environmental impacts on additional naval warfare missions and even, joint warfare operations. (Pg. 63)
Depot-Level Maintenance Planning for Marine Corps Ground Equipment (Christopher A. Goodhart)
Life cycle management of military equipment represents the integration of force structure decisions, current and future operational needs for equipment, modernization, fielding and retirement plans, and supply and maintenance support. The Marine Corps traditionally has regarded each of these activities separately from the others, and has treated them independently in planning and programming. In an increasingly resource competitive environment, integrated life cycle management must become more clearly evident in the planning and programming processes that ultimately provide resources for these activities. This paper presents a mixed-integer linear program used by the Marine Corps to develop two- to six-year depot-level maintenance plans for its ground equipment in consonance with other life cycle management activities. The model presented explicitly considers established fielding, modernization and retirement plans while maximizing the aggregate value of available equipment each year, ensuring that an adequate number of each asset type is available when needed and that annual budget limits are observed. Results obtained for fiscal years 2000-2005 helped achieve a 40% increase ($30M) to depot-level maintenance funding for fiscal year 2000 and dramatically reduced the plans’ preparation time while producing a balanced mix of equipment to address operational needs. (Pg. 77)
An Historical Perspective on U.S. Army Operations Research (Carl M. Harris and Andrew Loerch)
The following paper is an electronically scanned version of an article that appeared in the Saturday Evening Post (italics) issue of February 23, 1952, nineteen months into the Korean War. The Operations Research Office of The Johns Hopkins University had already been serving as the United States Army's civilian-run contract research center for four years by that time, with a special focus on providing the Army with independent, objective, and scientifically sound operations research studies of national security and defense issues. Together with its successor organization, the Research Analysis Corporation, the organization served in this capacity for a total of 24 years, a time during which the Nation went through some of the darkest periods of the cold war. We believe that the story told here has a timeless quality, and its story of the role of civilian advisors in improving military operational effectiveness is especially germane for today's practicing OR analysts. It would probably also be fair to say that the combined contributions of ORO and RAC played a large role in establishing operations research subsequently as a major paradigm for rational decision making throughout both the public and private sectors. (Pg. 5)
Improving Single Strike Effectiveness for Network Interdiction (Philip S. "Bud" Whiteman)
The interdiction of complex infrastructure networks is a critical element in modern warplans. Improving the effectiveness of each strike on an interdiction target set has inherent benefits to warfighting efficiency. The author proposes a comprehensive OR approach to planning network attacks which was developed for employment at U.S. Strategic Command. An integer programming formulation is used to select efficient target sets. Stochastic methods are combined with linear programming to evaluate and improve target set effectiveness in a single strike. Improved MOEs are suggested to enhance the warfighter’s confidence in the plan. (Pg. 15)
Information Loss Due to Target Mobility (Jon Shupenus and Donald Barr)
Entropy can be used as a measure of effectiveness to quantify a commander’s uncertainty, or information level, about his potential adversary. When surveillance of a detected target is interrupted, information about its current location starts to decrease as a result of the target’s ability to move. In this paper, Jon Shupenus and Don Barr develop a stochastic model of target motion and an approximation that admits easy implementation in spreadsheet applications. The approximation is then used to investigate the rates at which target information decays when subjected to various terrain constraints. (Pg. 31)
Adapting Statistical Process Control to Incorporate Demerit Systems as a Surveillance Tool for Hepatic Dysfunction (Bryan D. Richardson, Kenneth W. Bauer, Jr., David J. Louis and Jack A. Jackson)
Many health care organizations (military and civilian) collect large quantities of clinical information without much thought to subsequent application. In this paper, a screening technique based on standard quality control methods to help manage this situation is proposed. A military installation in the mid-western United States with 76 work zones was analyzed using up to six years worth of blood test data. Work zones, occupational areas with common exposures, were analyzed using statistical process control (SPC) methods; both standard control charts and demerit control charts were used to make a comparison of different graphical displays for medical surveillance. (Pg. 45)
A Model for Evaluating UAV Sensors with a Bosnia Sensor-To-Shooter Case Study (Paul A. Castleberg and William Dunaway)
In 1999, Serb forces were able to hide tanks and artillery from NATO surveillance by using foliage and camouflage, just as they had done in Bosnia five years earlier. To counter these deception techniques, The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has begun a program to develop hyperspectral sensor technologies that will have the capability to recognize these targets as distinct from the natural background. In this paper, Paul Castleberg and Bill Dunaway develop an analytical probability model and apply it in a Bosnia case study. The results from this study were used to demonstrate military utility of the new program and set initial requirements on sensor development. (Pg. 53)
Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) Aircraft Effectiveness (George Thompson)
Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) is inherently reactive: planners do not know a priori, the numbers, locations, and dispositions of the personnel that must be recovered. Given these uncertainties, is it possible to measure the relationship between CSAR aircraft performance and mission effectiveness?
In this paper, George Thompson presents a framework for measuring the impact of aircraft speed, unrefueled range, survivability, and reliability on CSAR effectiveness in major conflict scenarios. The method is applied to a comparison of the H-60 helicopter and V-22 tiltrotor.
This approach is potentially applicable to other challenging analysis problems; for example, comparing alternatives for attacking time-critical, pop-up targets. (Pg. 65)
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