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MOR Journal Abstracts
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Multipolar Nuclear Stability: Incentives to Strike and Incentives to Preempt (Jerome Bracken)
First strike stability, or incentive to preempt in a strategic nuclear environment, underlies many discussions of strategic force structure, posture, and arms control. In the bipolar context it is generally agreed that defenses are destabilizing, particularly at medium to high levels. The impact of additional armed sides on stability, however, is not well understood. The objective of this paper is to shed light on this multipolar stability question, particularly on the stability implications of small-to-medium size defenses. (Pg. 5)
Gain-Sharing, Success-Sharing and Cost-Based Transfer Pricing: A New Budgeting Approach for the Department of Defense (DoD) (Francois Melese)
Once the dust settles and so called "core" DoD support activities are defined, the issue of incentives must be addressed. Do current budgeting systems inadvertently punish cost-savings? Does cost-based "transfer pricing" offer a viable alternative? This paper by Francois Melese offers some answers. It also pioneers the application of an analytical OR approach to budget and incentive problems. A new budgeting proposal is introduced to help govern peace time relationships among operating forces and internal support activities. This new budgeting approach integrates cost-based "transfer pricing" with the popular business practice of "gain-sharing" and a novel incentive program called "success-sharing." The combined budgeting and incentive package is designed to improve the management of financial resources and business operations throughout the DoD. (Pg. 23)
Modeling Loss Exchange Ratios as Inverse Gaussian Variates: Implications (D.H. Olwell)
Loss Exchange Ratios (LER) are widely used as the summary of the results of a simulated battle. We have found from repeated simulations of the same battle that the LER for a given battle varies widely. This has policy and statistical implications. Attacking some of the statistical issues, such as what is a good model for LER and how to estimate its parameters, sheds light on the policy issues, such as how many runs are required and how accurate is the output.
We examine in detail LER from replications of battles simulated on JANUS and CASTFOREM, and propose a new statistical model for this output, based on the Inverse Gaussian distribution. Since this member of the exponential family is not widely known, we include a primer. We make the point that the LER can not be adequately summarized by just its mean; a second parameter is necessary to fully describe the model.
Executives should routinely ask their modelers how many runs of a simulation were conducted in a simulation study, how that number was selected, how the LER (or other summary output) was is best described, and how much improvement has been demonstrated over the controls. This article provides the analyst with powerful tools to answer those questions. (Pg. 51)
Clusterization of Alternatives in the Analytic Hierarchy Process. (R. Islam, M.P. Biswal and S.S. Alam)
Despite the impressive success of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in solving a wide range of discrete multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems, a major drawback of its use to solve a large scale problem is the huge amount of work to make all the necessary pairwise comparisons. R. Islam, M.P. Biswal and S.S. Alam have developed a clustering procedure to solve a large scale MCDM problem by AHP. In order to show the viability of the proposed procedure they have considered the problem of choosing the best transport aircraft from the available twenty alternatives. (Pg. 69)
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Shoot-Look-Shoot Tactics in the Presence of Incomplete Damage Information (Yossi Aviv and Moshe Kress)
The advent of new technologies, and in particular the development of efficient detection sensors, have produced advanced long-range and accurate weapon systems such as HELLFIRE, SLAM, GBU-15 and FOG-M. A common problem that is associated with the operation of these weapons systems is that of Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA). Stating it simply, the question is: how to utilize these weapon systems in the most efficient way when damage information is not complete?
In this paper, Yossi Aviv and Moshe Kress analyze several shooting tactics and show that a certain simple tactic may be best in terms of fire efficiency and operational convenience. This result sheds some light on doctrinal issues that may be related to the operation of these weapon systems. (Pg. 79)
An Integer Solution Heuristic for the Arsenal Exchange Model (AEM) (Daniel J. Green, James T. Moore, and John J. Borsi)
Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency (AFSAA) was using the Arsenal Exchange Model (AEM) to allocate the weapons of various strategic force structures to targets. AEM often allocates a fractional number of weapons to a class of targets and then truncates this number to get an integer allocation of weapons. AFSAA wanted a better approach to obtain integer solutions. In this research Dan Green, Jim Moore, and John Borsi developed a heuristic which finds better integer solutions in less than five seconds. Their heuristic has been incorporated in AEM. (Pg. 5)
On the Principle of "False Ranging" in Weaponry (Israel David)
Suppose you are an army commander who is requested to join a multinational force, complying with others' guns or ammunition. Or suppose a serious "bug" has been detected in a crucial weapon fire control system. Or imagine any other unpredicted situation that arises which calls for an unconventional use of weapons. Is there any methodology that may help in suggesting a relatively handy, simple and accurate means for coping with such problems in times of emergency? -- The present paper clarifies, defines and exemplifies the problem. It discusses the apparently old approach to its solution in simple contexts, coined here "false ranging." Moreover, it shows how modern OR techniques may be used to generalize the principle and to enable its application in larger contexts. (Pg. 17)
RiskNavTM : A Decision Aid for Prioritizing, Displaying, and Tracking Program Risk (C. C. Cho, P. R. Garvey, and R. J. Giallombardo)
This work presents a family of preference models for prioritizing program risk. These models originate from multiattribute utility theory and rank-order project-defined risk events as a function of multiple criteria. Such criteria includes, but is not limited to, a program’s cost, schedule, and technical performance. In addition, the methodology is tuned for quantifying the effects of coupled (dependent) risks. As a decision-aid, these models target where engineering assets are best applied to mitigate potentially crippling areas of risk to a program. (Pg. 25)
The Probabilistic Multiple-Travelling-Salesmen Facility-Location Problem: Space-Filling Curves and Asymptotic Euclidean Analysis (Yupo Chan and David L. Merrill)
All of us need to make decision in uncertainty, particularly regarding the demands that are placed upon our day-to-day operations. The operations have to be executed in real time, and long-term plans have to be made. In the defense community, we face such issues as base closures and fleet requirements to sustain a required mission. When locating the base for a fleet of flight-inspection aircraft, Yupo Chan and David Merrill show how some analysts in the U. S. Air Force went through these decisions. While flight-inspection requirements vary from day to day, the authors offer a robust analysis procedure that can respond to these stochastic demands. Furthermore, the same analysis procedure, when carried out over a sufficient lengthy period of time (such as a year), can suggest basing and fleet size alternatives. Best of all, the procedure can be executed in the field with minimal computational requirements. It offers a fast solution to a highly taxing technical problem in Operations Research, while guaranteeing an error bound to the "quick solution" (a "75 percent solution"). The model reflects a current trend in combinatorial optimization, wherein the best of heuristics with analytical formulation are combined in a single model. (Pg. 37)
Application and Extension of The Thruput II Optimization Model For Airlift Mobility (Richard Rosenthal, David Morton, Steven Baker, Lim Teo, David Fuller, David Goggins, Ayhan Toy, Yasin Turker, David Horton, and Daniel Briand)
Recent advances in computing and model formulation have permitted optimization models to influence airlift mobility decision making. This paper describes the use of a large-scale linear program to provide insight to the C-17 Defense Acquisition Board. For this analysis, we used a variety of airlift fleets under a two Major Regional Contingency scenario. We also describe ongoing efforts to improve the realism and tractability of optimization models for airlift analyses, including model reduction and decomposition techniques, as well as incorporating the stochastic nature of aircraft breakdowns. (Pg. 55)
Relating Weapon System Test Sizes to Warfighting Capability (Mark A. Gallagher, Jeffrey D. Weir, and Wesley D. True)
Military planners use weapon system reliability estimates in creating and evaluating war plans. The accuracy of these estimates is important to ensure our military forces are efficiently planned and effectively employed. Results of annual weapon system flight tests are used by military planners to validate the accuracy and confidence of these reliability estimates. Since each test is expensive, the military needs to trade off the cost of the additional tests against the improved accuracy and confidence of the reliability estimate. Classical statistical approaches that are currently used obfuscate the impact of various testing rates. Gallagher, Weir, and True suggest that the number of tests be determined with regard to the military impact. Using Bayesian statistics they calculate the expected additional weapons lost, given that a reliability degrade of unknown magnitude remains undetected. This methodology allows decision makers and planners alike to assess the impact of a possible weapon system reliability degrade to their war plans. (Pg. 5)
Forecasting and Allocation of US Army Recruiting Resources (P. L. Brockett, B. Golany, J. J. Rousseau, D. A. Thomas, and L. Zhou)
It costs several hundred millions dollars a year to maintain the U.S. Army recruiting effort. Prior to the late 1980s, senior Army planners had no systematic means to assess how efficiently the recruiting resources were used or what could be expected from different levels and mixes of these resources. These issues were the subjects of frequent congressional inquiries, especially during the force downsizing years following the collapse of the Soviet Union. In response to a direct request, the authors developed a computerized interactive system, based on data envelopment analysis and goal programming, for constructing and evaluating alternative programs of recruiting objectives and aggregate resource requirements which were realistic and defensible in the post-cold war time of reduced budgets. (Pg. 13)
Manoeuvre Warfare: Force Balance in Relation to Other Factors and to Operational Success (L.R. Speight, D. Rowland and M. C. Keys) (Pg. 31)
Evaluation of Intelligent Minefields (John A. Marin and Donald R. Barr)
A Wide Area Munition employs acoustic and seismic sensors to detect, classify, track, and engage potential targets. An Intelligent Wide Area Munition exhibits the added capability to communicate with other IWAMs which results in an increased probability of hit in the intersection of the lethal areas. To assess a range of intelligent minefield deployments, to include mine spacing, numbers of mines, mixes of mine types and the lay-down pattern of the mines, we constructed a high resolution, interactive, stochastically based simulation written in Visual Basic. Results from the simulation and mathematical details supporting our conclusions are discussed. (Pg. 47)
Analytical Modeling of Aircraft Sortie Generation With Concurrent Maintenance and General Service Times (Daniel V. Hackman, and Dennis C. Dietz)
The employment effectiveness of a complement of military aircraft is strongly influenced by the sortie generation process. Maj Hackman and Lt Col Dietz develop an analytical model that captures the interactions between aircraft characteristics and base resources to produce system performance measures such as resource utilization levels and the sortie generation rate. The model employs decomposition techniques to accommodate concurrent service activities and known variability in service times. Useful applications of the model include the identification of bottlenecks, sensitivity analysis, and determination of the distribution of resources required for attainment of a target sortie generation rate. (Pg. 61)
Air Force 2025 Operational Analysis (Jack A. Jackson, Gregory S. Parnell, Brian L. Jones, Lee J. Lehmkuhl, Harry W. Conley and John M. Andrew)
The USAF Chief of Staff determined that the long-range planning process within the USAF was broken. To reverse this trend, he initiated a year-long study, Air Force 2025, to generate ideas and concepts on the capabilities the United States will require to possess the dominant air and space forces in the future, to identify new or high-leverage concepts for employing air and space power, and to outline the technologies required to enable the envisioned capabilities. This article outlines the operational analysis, which used Value-Focused Thinking, that supported the Air Force 2025 study. (Pg. 5)
Appraising Warfighting Concepts With Wargaming Simulations (Robert M. Chapman)
Military operations research professionals use analytical simulations to explore a wide range of issues in the acquisition and policy arenas. Many of these analytical simulations, however, are inappropriate for examining warfighting concepts because of their simplistic treatment of human behavior especially decision processes. In contrast, simulations used in battlestaff training programs are designed to accommodate decision processes. There are, however, significant challenges in using training simulations for systematically examining military issues. This paper presents a methodology for using a training simulation to explore a technology-based warfighting concept. The methodology was developed to support JWFC's participation in the 1996 Defense Science Board Summer Study. Although developed and executed in just under two months, it required a significant commitment of resources. The effort, however, was very productive because it produced a methodology that is different from that used in most analytical -simulations-based studies. The methodology used by JWFC blended techniques from training-based wargaming events with those used for analytical experiments. Often people assume there is symmetry between simulation-assisted exercises and analysis if they both use computer models. Such an assumption, which focuses on the tool instead of the task, can lead to flawed methodologies. Understanding the difference, though, can provide a useful tool for military operations research. (Pg. 23)
Concept Exploration on the Virtual Battlefield (Gary Q. Coe)
1996 Defense Science Board Summer Study on Tactics and Technology for 21st Century Military Superiority addressed the challenge of identifying new analytic tools for concepts evaluation, motivated by the evolving "new world order" that changed missions and environments for future war and the increasing Department of Defense investment in information technology for improving future warfighting capability. In support of this effort, an experiment was designed for evaluating new concepts suggested by the Army After Next and Marine Corps Sea Dragon combat development programs and conducted on a future battlefield. The experiment was conducted at the Institute for Defense Analyses using advanced distributed simulation technology including equipment and personnel virtually interacting with a synthetic battlespace. It was supported by the U.S. Army National Guard and U.S. Marine Corps active duty personnel. The Army Research Institute development human performance criteria, provided observers to evaluate human behavior of the individual combatants, and assisted in data analysis from the experiment. (Pg. 39)
The Cost Exchange Ratio: A New Aggregate Measure of Cost and Operational Effectiveness (Bruce W. Fowler and Pauline P. Cason)
Aggregate measures of performance have value to analysts and decision makers alike in comparing alternatives and variations on a common scenario. Traditional aggregate measures have included the Force Exchange and Loss Exchange Ratios. These measures are well defined for single system (homogeneous) scenarios, but require some aggregation methodology for a multiple system (heterogeneous) scenario. Different methodologies have been advanced to perform this aggregation in a purely operational context. An alternative aggregation methodology is cost of the systems and their ammunition. This permits the formation of a Cost Exchange Ratio which combines operational performance and operational cost to provide an aggregate measure of cost and operational performance. Combining this methodology with an operational aggregation methodology permits definition of a Normed Cost Exchange Ratio which permits comparison of the cost and operational performance of an alternative or variation force to an equivalent single system base force,, thus avoiding the difficulty of making cost comparisons across cultures. Together, these two cost ratios provide an aggregate means for assessing cost variation in an operational context, thus facilitating modem acquisition decisions based on such considerations as Cost as an Independent Variable. (Pg. 57)
Airborne and Space-Bourne Reconnaissance Force Mixes: A Decision Analysis Approach ( Terry A. Bresnick, Dennis M. Buede, Albert A. Pisani, Leighton L. Smith and Buddy B. Wood)
Given the importance of joint reconnaissance to today's operational commanders and increasing reliance on reconnaissance for the future, the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) recognized in 1995 that it had no means to make force mix decisions in terms of end-to-end platform capability and cost across all components: manned, unmanned, and overhead. To fulfil this need, the JROC created the Reconnaissance Study Group (RSG) and tasked it to develop and implement a process for making timely and informed reconnaissance force mix decisions. This paper describes an innovative decision analysis methodology for determining the composition of promising reconnaissance architectures at various levels of investment for the 2010 time frame. 'Me results of this study were not developed to feed into any JROC decision making process, but to illustrate a methodology; nonetheless, the results have been utilized by a number of DOD organizations. (Pg. 65)
Navy’s Response to the Quadrennial Defense Review (RADM John W. Craine, Jr., CDR Michael R. Shumaker (Ret)
To help make tough choices about Joint Warfare, C4ISR, Resources, and Readiness, the Department of Defense (DoD) spent the first six months of 1997 focused on what kind of military America needs. What role should military force play in world affairs? What programs, policies, and technology are needed? How do we pay for them? These are just a few of the many questions that Operations Research helped answer. This article takes the reader behind the scenes to find out how Navy approached the first QDR and learn which analytical efforts were brought to bear to support Navy’s participation. Plans for addressing the next QDR conclude this look at analysis-based decision making. (Pg. 5)
A New Paradigm for Measuring Military Readiness (Dr. John F. Raffensperger)
What is readiness? The commander of a unit has the responsibility for his unit, and for deciding whether that unit is ready, so the only irrefutable definition of readiness is the commander's judgement. However, the definition of readiness in the commander's head is not helpful to anyone else unless that definition has been portrayed as a numerical measure. We seek numerical proxies for the commander's judgement, good measures that can be easily explained, easily stored in computers, provide operational guidance, and do not contradict common sense. For low-level units such as a ship or an Army tank battalion, we show that readiness should be measured in units of time. Measuring readiness at unit level is inherently a problem of scheduling those activities that a commander believes must be done in order for the unit to be ready. For higher-level units such as an Army division, we recommend that readiness for a specific operation be measured in dollars. This calculation is inherently a mobility planning problem. (Pg. 21)
Modelling the Mobile Land Battle: Lanchester’s Equations, Mini-Battle Formation and the Acquisition of Targets (Ron Speight)
Since its formulation more than 70 years ago, Lanchester attrition theory has had a pervasive influence in military OR. It has helped to fashion beliefs concerning the likely effects of the concentration of force, and variants of the theory’s mathematical equations are incorporated in many battle models. This study focuses on two features of the tactical battle which may impact on the validity of Lanchester theory: the acquisition of targets, and the tendency of mobile engagements to be fragmented into a network of mini-battles. An appendix sets out a scheme for modelling these two phenomena, and incorporates them in a simulation of a mobile engagement. In the paper proper this simulation is used to estimate the way that casualties may vary as a function of starting odds, detectability of targets and weapon lethality. Conclusions are then drawn as to the bounds which should be placed on the validity of Lanchester theory, and on the form of mathematical equation likely to be of most practical utility. (Pg. 35)
A Methodology for Habitat Suitability Mapping via the Integration of Multicriteria Evaluation Techniques and GIS: A Pilot Study (Anthony A. Ference, Michael L. Shelley, Edward A. Pohl)
In 1994, a little known species (the Little Pacific Pocket Mouse) was discovered aboard Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton. The species was immediately listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and entitled federal protection from training activities such as aircraft bombing, live-fire artillery, and mechanized vehicle and infantry movement. To predict probable species locations to optimize species prevalence sampling costs, Tony Ference, Mike Shelley, and Ed Pohl developed and executed a multicriteria evaluation methodology coupled with the base’s existing GIS data base on ground characteristics to produce a habitat suitability map. The results will help Camp Pendleton develop a cost effective military training and species management strategy in negotiation with federal agencies and demonstrates a general methodology for similar endangered species challenges. (Pg. 63)
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