The Global War on Terrorism: Analytic Support, Tools and Metrics of Assessment

30 November - 2 December 2004
US Naval War College
Newport, Rhode Island

Terms of Reference
(Last Updated 13 September 2004)

1. Background

The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon have thrust the United States into the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT).  As a result the U.S. has joined the rest of the world by entering into a new age of instability.  Combating these terrorist threats has demanded that our armed forces conduct operations simultaneously across the full spectrum of conflict – from conventional combat in major contingency operations as in OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM to peace operations such as OPERATION JOINT FORGE.  Subsequently, the value of analysts who support the warfighter has and will continue to be a significant combat multiplier in these efforts.

Recent experiences in providing analytic support to the combatant commanders in the prosecution of the GWOT have brought to the fore several areas that are of major importance and interest to the warfighter.  These include:

2. Sponsor Interest

All MORS Sponsors have expressed a strong interest in this workshop.

3. Goals and Objectives

The proposed meeting will provide a forum for discussing analytic support, tools and metrics of assessment in the Global War on Terrorism.  The workshop will bring together analysts and decision-makers from within DoD (e.g., Services, Combatant Commands, and associated Agencies), from other Departments (e.g., State and Homeland Security), as well as Allied countries.  The goal is to gain insight on operational assessment techniques and capabilities to better support the Global War on Terrorism.

The Global War on Terrorism: Analytic Support, Tools and Metrics of Assessment (GWOT: ATM) workshop will be organized into six working groups and one synthesis group.  The six working groups will address the key following issues; 1) forecasting nation state and regional instability, 2) analytic support to stability operations, 3) analytic tools to support the GWOT, 4) metrics of assessment in the GWOT, 5) homeland defense, and 6) GWOT problem definition. These working groups are not mutually exclusive, and this is deliberate.  Explicitly introducing overlap between the working groups provides synthesis points for integrating the conclusions from each, and reduces the probability that major ideas will “fall through the cracks” between the workshop topics.

WG-1 Forecasting Nation State and Regional Instability — Identify analytic skills, tools, models, methods and metrics for forecasting instability at the national and regional level that can be exploited either by global terrorists or by those waging war on them.  This working group will focus on measuring and forecasting:

WG-2 Analytic Support to Stability Operations — Identify analytic skills, tools, models, methods and metrics for supporting stability operations in nations and regions after military intervention by the U.S.  This working group will focus on:

WG-3 GWOT:  Tools, Data & Decision Support — Identify tools, models, methods and metrics for combating global terrorists. This working group will focus on support and measures for:

WG-4 Metrics for Assessing Military Effectiveness in the GWOT — Identify useful measures of effectiveness to monitor and improve military effectiveness in the Global War on Terrorism.  This working group will focus on military responsibilities, decisions, and activities in the GWOT. 

Considering the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of warfare, this working group will explore the metrics that would be useful in providing insight to decision makers within these areas.  For each identified metric the group will determine methods and sources of data to obtain these measures.

WG-5 Homeland Defense — Identify the issues associated with 1) traditional military operations and 2) civil support of HLD and will identify useful decision support tools, models and metrics for quantifying the broad range of issues facing HLD decision-makers.  This working group will also organize these tools, models and metrics into focus areas for a potential separate workshop in 2005.  The focus areas for this working group will consist of:

WG-6 GWOT Problem Definition — Identify the differences in terminology, assumptions on the cause, and the nature of the threat that lead to confusion and misdirection of efforts.  This working group will focus on defining:

Synthesis Group — The synthesis group will bring together the work of the six working groups and develop the overall recommendations from the analysis community to the individual service operations analysts.  As well, this group will provide inputs and recommendations on development of analytic support to the GWOT.

4. Deliverables

The MORS Synthesis Group will provide documentation listing actionable items to pursue that will facilitate the ORSA community in supporting the Global War on Terrorism. This will be in the form of a report and a briefing to the MORS Sponsors that lists state of the art assessment methods.  These methods will include empirical data collection techniques leading to the development of usable models for forecasting national and regional instability (e.g. structural equation modeling).   A summary of the report will be published in PHALANX and will be briefed at the 73^rd MORS Symposium in June 2005.

Each working group will present a recommended analysis approach for each of their topics, including a course of action for implementing the approach.  These suggested approaches will identify current tools, models, methods and metrics that may be used in assessing the effectiveness of the GWOT, for example: How successful are we at disrupting the financial flows of terrorist organizations? How do we measure the progress of stability operations?  This will provide a basis for building a library of appropriate assessment tools.

Further, recommendations for future workshops and working group meetings that will concentrate on specific areas will be proposed for Sponsor consideration.

5. Chairs

Program Co-Chairs
Dr. Lynee Murray, NAVSEA Newport NUWC, MurrayLD@npt.nuwc.navy.mil, 401-832-3543
Dr. Stephen Downes-Martin, WGD NWC, downess@nwc.navy.mil, 401-841-6933

Technical Chair: Dr. Forrest Crain, Army G3, William.F.Crain@us.army.mil, 703-614-9120

WG 1 Chairs: Dr. Sean O’Brien, obrien@caa.army.mil, 703-806-5361
Mr. Tim Hope, thope@alionscience.com, 703-998-1611
Mr. H. J. Orgeron, orgeronhj@mccdc.usmc.mil, 703-784-0434

WG 2 Chairs: Dr. Karsten Engelmann, engelman@caa.army.mil, 703-806-5532
MAJ Rob Kewley, kewley@caa.army.mil, 703-806-5562

WG 3 Chairs: Dr. Dean Hartley, DSHartley3@comcast.net, 865-425-9752
Mr. John Cipparone, Jcipparone@drc.com, 571-226-8765

WG 4 Chairs: Dr. John Borsi, john.borsi@pentagon.af.mil, 703-588-8198
Lt Col Robert Rosedale, Robert.rosedale@pentagon.af.mil, 703-588-8818

WG 5 Chairs: Mr. Thomas Denesia, Thomas.denesia@northcom.mil, 719-554-9680
Mr. Glen Roussos, glen.roussos@northcom.mil, 719-554-9767

WG 6 Chairs: Dr. David Markowitz, david.markowitz@osd.mil, 703-696-9360
Mr. Curt Doescher, Curt.Doescher@hqda.army.mil, 703-692-6960

Synthesis Chairs: Dr. Greg Parnell, FS, Gregory.Parnell@usma.edu, 845-938-4374
Col Jerry Diaz, jerry.diaz@pentagon.af.mil, 703-588-6969

6. Organizing Committee

Plus All Working Group Chairs (listed above)

7. Location and Dates

United States Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island, 30 November – 2 December 2004.

8. Fees

Full Workshop: US Federal Government: $225/All Others: $450
One Day Only: US Federal Government: $115/All Others: $230

9. Classification

The Tuesday Plenary Session, Thursday Working Group Report-Out Session and two working groups (1 and 3) will be at the UNCLASSIFIED level, with all papers Approved for Public Release. One working group (2) will be at the UNCLASSIFIED level, except for one session.  Three working groups (4, 5, and 6) will be at the SECRET/NOFORN level.

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Last modified: October 14, 2004