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Analyzing the Impact of Emerging
Societies on National Security

Argonne National Laboratory
Argonne, IL
14-18 April 2008

Terms of Reference

(Last Updated 18 February 2008)

OVERVIEW

Societies confront a wide range of nontraditional threats, including an occupation, major changes in energy supply and demand, introduction of new technologies, regime changes, natural or human induced catastrophes, and assimilation of new cultures. The reaction by a society to internal and external disruptions is a complex interaction of social, economic, political, environmental, and technological processes. These interactions operate in a synergistic fashion with one factor potentially triggering feedback loops between them. The result can be the emergence of a new societal state.

The concept of an “emerging society” refers to a change from one social state to another – not just a change from an “old” society to a “modern” one, as is often portrayed in the popular press. Very often, we only focus on “terrorists,” “non-state actors,” and failed states.” In this meeting, we will examine a large array of factors that can create emerging societies, such as exogenous shocks to the environment (e.g., changing climate, weather patterns, and desertification), pandemics, shifts in cultural identify, economic factors, the assimilation of new cultures, etc.; and how these factors can have a National Security impact. Being able to characterize an emerging society and develop an appropriate response requires a deep understanding of these factors, as well as the history of the society.

GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

The overall goal for this special meeting is to address the factors, methods, and tools that are currently available or need to be developed that will enable operations research analysts to understand the complex interactions in emerging societies and their impacts on National Security. Some of the specific goals for this meeting will include:

  • Summarizing at a high level the characteristics of emerging societies and the tools needed to describe them,

  • Identifying the modeling and simulation tools that are available to address the issues associated with emerging societies,

  • Discussions on how these modeling resources can and cannot be appropriately used,

  • Identifying the data sources that can be used to support these tools,

  • Developing the necessary processes to verify and validate these tools, and

  • Building bridges between the operations research and social modeling communities.

To be successful, each working group must bring together individuals from the services, DoD and other government agencies, and the research community. Only through sharing the insights of all these different components of the analytical effort will we be able to provide the community with the best possible insights from this special meeting.

APPROACH

The format of the proposed special meeting is a workshop. Three working groups will consider the methods and tools available now and proposed for understanding a society and modeling its complex interactions. Each working group will have a series of presentations followed by a discussion of the issues. A synthesis group will integrate the results of the working groups into a coherent assessment of the technologies and present a high-level strategy for their application to the national need to anticipate emerging challenges and adversary decision making. The working groups for the meeting and some of their individual goals are:

WG 1 - Characterizing Emerging Societies (Chair – Dr. Michael Vlahos, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory)

This working group will address two key themes – 1.) What are the factors that can give rise to emerging societies that may become an issue from a National Security perspective and 2.) What kind of strategies that can be developed to respond or reshape them? To address the first theme, we shall present historical examples of significant events that have impacted transitional societies and resulted in a national security impact. As an example, we shall discuss the role of shifting or migrating identities in the emergence of new communities and the role of resistance and conflict as a central strategy in the realization of new identities. We will also identify other factors, internal and external, that could be a trigger for creating an emergent society. In addressing the second theme, we will discuss approaches and concepts on how to engage transitional societies to achieve international goals, develop proactive strategies to assist transitional societies, and rescue failing states from potential disintegration.

WG 2 - Modeling Tools and Approaches (Chair - Dr. Charles Macal, Argonne National Laboratory)

This working group will consider four themes related to Users, Societal Processes, Models and Algorithms, and Applications. The Users theme will examine how to translate user requirements for information into requirements for modeling. Under this theme we will address questions such as, what information do end users want that a model could provide, what spatial scales and time frames are needed, and how are decisions being made now such that modeling might make a value-added contribution, how could models support the overall business processes?

The Societal Processes theme will work to identify and understand the real world processes that are amenable to modeling. Under this theme we will address questions such as, what are the relevant disciplines with a stake in the emerging society issue, can the main driver concepts and underlying social processes be identified, and how do social scientists think of these issues?

The Models and Algorithms theme will address how to developing models and algorithms that when applied to the real world answer real world questions. Under this theme we will address questions such as, what modeling techniques are promising and applicable for modeling emerging societies, how does data availability constrain the prospects for modeling, and how are models of societal processes to be validated?

The Applications theme will address how we can learn from our modeling failures and successes. Under this theme we will address questions such as, what applications are being successful, what are the criteria for success, and what are the limitations of modeling learned through the applications?

WG 3 - Social Networks (Chair - Dr. David Sallach, Argonne National Laboratory and University of Chicago)

Social networks describe how information propagates through a society. This Working Group will focus on understanding and describing social networks and how they are a key factor in understanding a society’s reaction to an event. We will begin by examining the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of social networks. Examples of applications of social networks will include the international discourse and covert networks in nuclear proliferation, repurposing solidary networks for adversarial objectives, and collective reasoning in C3I networks. Working Group 3 will consist of 4 break-out sessions that will be centered on an invited presentation followed by a general discussion. The current structure of the break-out sessions is:

  • Session 1: Fluidity and Structure in Strategic Networks, Invited Speaker: Les Gasser, University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign
  • Session 2: Repurposing Networks for Adversarial Objectives, Invited Speaker: Kathleen Carley, Carnegie Mellon University
  • Session 3: The Social Dimension of Networks, Invited Speaker: Noshir Contractor, Northwestern University
  • Session 4: Integrating Network Modeling with Other Analytical Tools, Invited Speaker: Not yet confirmed

Call for Contributed Papers

The majority of papers presented will be by invitation, but we are soliciting contributed papers for the three working groups. Individuals interested in submitting a paper are encouraged to contact the working group chairs to discuss their paper concepts. The contact information for the working group chairs is below.

TENTATIVE AGENDA

ATTENDEES

Attendance will be by invitation only. Attendees will include invited experts from OSD, all Services, the Joint Staff, University Affiliated Research Centers, Federally Funded Research and Development Centers, operational commanders, DoD contractors, Department of Homeland Security, US Northern Command, and others, including representatives from our Allied / Coalition Analytical Communities. Workshop chairs will control membership of their sessions in conjunction with the Organizing Committee. Attendance will be limited to 200 people.

PRODUCTS

Several products will be generated from the workshop:

  • An Executive Summary in the form of a text document and a scripted briefing for the MORS Sponsors addressing the workshop objectives, findings, conclusions and recommendations will be offered within 30 days.
  • A proceedings document containing summaries of all sessions and annotated copies of appropriate briefing slides and presentations.
  • An article summarizing the meeting and its findings will be produced and submitted to PHALANX in time for the next deadline after the meeting.
  • A general session presentation will be made at the 76th MORSS.

MEETING VENUE

The meeting will be held at the Argonne National Laboratory, a Department of Energy National Laboratory, located outside of Chicago, Illinois. The specific venue will be the Advanced Photon Source (APS) Conference Facilities.

Argonne is conveniently served by two Chicago airports, O’Hare and Midway. The Argonne Guest House, located on the Argonne campus and within walking distance of the APS facilities, has a block of rooms reserved for the meeting. There are additional hotels located off the Argonne campus site, as well.

RECOMMEND READING LIST

The list of recommended readings listed by the working group for which the topic is relevant.

WG 1

“The Beginner’s Guide to Nation-Building,” James Dobbins, Seth G. Jones, Keith Crane, Beth Cole DeGrase, RAND Corporation, National Security Research Division, 2007. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG557/ (Also available commercially.)

“Ignoring the Innocents,” Yuna Huh Wong, RAND Corporation, Pardee Rand Graduate School, 2006. http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD201/.

“National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,” Center for Naval Analysis, 2007, http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/.

“Fighting Identify: Why We Are Losing Our Wars,” Michael Vlahos, http://usacac.leavenworth.army.mil/CAC/milreview/English/NovDec07/VlahosEngNovDec07.pdf

PLANNING AND ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

General Co-Chairs
Dr. John Hummel, Argonne National Laboratory, jhummel@anl.gov
 Dr. Ted Bennett, Naval Oceanographic Office, Theodore.j.bennett@navy.mil

WG 1 – Characterizing Emerging Societies
Chair: Dr. Michael Vlahos, Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Lab, michael.vlahos@jhuapl.edu
 Mr. Matthew Berry, Argonne National Laboratory, mberry@anl.gov
 Dr. John Hummel, Argonne National Laboratory, jhummel@anl.gov

WG 2 – Modeling Tools and Approaches
 Chair: Dr. Charles Macal, Argonne National Lab, macal@anl.gov
 Dr. Bruce D. Wyman, Northrup Grumman, bruce.wyman@ngc.com
 Prof. Kathleen M. Carley, Carnegie Mellon University, Carley@cmu.edu
 Lt Bryan R. Tannehill, USN, Bryan_Tannehill@yahoo.com

WG 3 – Social Networks
Chair: Dr. David Sallach, Argonne National Lab
 Mr. Richard Avilla, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Richard.Avilla@jhuapl.edu
Maj Laura K. Garrett, USAF, US Strategic Command, garrettl@stratcom.mil
Dr. Richard F. Deckro, Air Force Institute of Technology, richard.deckro@afit.edu

Synthesis Working Group
Dr. Dan Maxwell, Innovative Decisions, Inc., dmaxwell@innovativedecisions.com
 Dr. Thomas Baldwin, Argonne National Laboratory, Baldwint@anl.gov
Michael Samsa, Argonne National Laboratory, msamsa@anl.gov

Administrative Coordinators
Brian Engler, MORS, 703-933-9070, brian@mors.org
 Colette Burgess, 703-933-9070, colette@mors.org
 Kathy Ruffatto, Argonne National Laboratory, kruffatto@anl.gov

MORS Bulldog: Mr. Roy Reiss, FS

Sponsor/Service Reps
Air Force: Mr. Balf Callaway, Studies and Analyses (HQ USAF/A9), Balf.Callaway@pentagon.af.mil

Army: Mr. David M. Markowitz, Center for Army Analysis (HQDA/DCS Programs, G-8), david.markowitz@us.army.mil

Navy: Mr. Herbert S. Cupo, Office Chief of Naval Operations (N81), Herbert.cupo@navy.mil

Marine Corps: Col Joseph Smith, Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC), james.g.smith@usmc.mil

Joint Staff: Mr. Robert Orlov, The Joint Staff (J8), Robert.orlov@js.pentagon.mil

OSD/PA&E: Mr. James Bexfield, FS, James.Bexfield@osd. mil

ADMINISTRATIVE

Name: Modeling the Impact of Emerging Societies on National Security

Dates: 1 4-18 April 2008

Location : Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL

Fees:

Mini-Symposium Only:
All Non-MORS Members $325
All MORS Members $375

Entire Workshop:
Non-Government Non-MORS Member $575
Non-Government MORS Member $640

Government Non-MORS Member $675
Government MORS Member $750

Attendance: ~ 200 people, by invitation

Classification: Unclassified

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Last modified: February 20, 2008