Analyzing the Impact of Emerging
Societies on National Security
Argonne National Laboratory
Argonne, IL
14-18 April 2008
Dear Colleague:
Societies confront a wide range of nontraditional threats, including an occupation, major changes in energy supply and demand, introduction of new technologies, regime changes, natural or human induced catastrophes, and assimilation of new cultures. The reaction by a society to internal and external disruptions is a complex interaction of social, economic, political, environmental, and technological processes. These interactions operate in a synergistic fashion with one factor potentially triggering feedback loops between them. The result can be the emergence of a new societal state.
The concept of an “emerging society” refers to a change from one social state to another – not just a change from an “old” society to a “modern” one, as is often portrayed in the popular press. Very often, we only focus on “terrorists,” “non-state actors,” and failed states.” In this meeting, we will examine a large array of factors that can create emerging societies, such as exogenous shocks to the environment (e.g., changing climate, weather patterns, and desertification), pandemics, shifts in cultural identify, economic factors, the assimilation of new cultures, etc.; and how these factors can have a National Security impact. Being able to characterize an emerging society and develop an appropriate response requires a deep understanding of these factors, as well as the history of the society.
The overall goal for this special meeting is to address the factors, methods, and tools that are currently available or need to be developed that will enable operations research analysts to understand the complex interactions in emerging societies and their impacts on National Security. Some of the specific goals for this meeting will include:
- Summarizing at a high level the characteristics of emerging societies and the tools needed to describe them,
- Identifying the modeling and simulation tools that are available to address the issues associated with emerging societies,
- Discussions on how these modeling resources can and cannot be appropriately used,
- Identifying the data sources that can be used to support these tools,
- Developing the necessary processes to verify and validate these tools, and
- Building bridges between the operations research and social modeling communities.
To be successful, each working group must bring together individuals from the services, DoD and other government agencies, and the research community. Only through sharing the insights of all these different components of the analytical effort will we be able to provide the community with the best possible insights from this special meeting. Three working groups will consider the methods and tools available now and proposed for understanding a society and modeling its complex interactions. A synthesis group will integrate the results of the working groups into a coherent assessment of the technologies and present a high-level strategy for their application to the national need to anticipate emerging challenges and adversary decision making.
The three working groups for the meeting are:
- WG 1 - Characterizing Emerging Societies (Chair – Dr. Michael Vlahos, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory)
- WG 2 - Modeling Tools and Approaches (Chair - Dr. Charles Macal, Argonne National Laboratory)
- WG 3 - Social Networks (Chair - Dr. David Sallach, Argonne National Laboratory and University of Chicago)
This workshop will be held 15 - 17 April 2008 at the Argonne National Laboratory, Advanced Photon Source (APS) Conference Facilities Argonne, IL. The Argonne National Laboratory is conveniently served by two Chicago airports, O’Hare and Midway.
HOTEL: We have reserved a block of rooms at the Argonne Guest House, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Building #460, Argonne, IL 60439, phone 630/739-6000. The Argonne Guest House is located on the Argonne campus and within walking distance of the APS facilities. The r ate is $70 + tax and the cut-off date for reservations is 1 April 2008. Reservations can be made by calling 1-800-632-8990 or 630-739-6000. Please refer to the “MORS Emerging Societies” workshop when making your reservation.
APPLICATION: An appli cation form to attend the workshop is enclosed. Please complete all requested information and return, via fax, to the MORS office at (703) 933-9066. For ONLY Foreign Visitors, a Visit/Assignment Request is required. Please complete (Part A) and fax or scan and e-mailed directly to John Hummel at ANL. FAX to: 630-252-6073, E-MAIL to: jhummel@anl.gov.
REGISTRATION: Registration will be held at the Advanced Photon Source (APS) Conference Facility which is walking distance from the Argonne Guest House starting at 0700 on Tuesday, 15 April.
FEE STRUCTURE: Conference registration fees are:
One-Day Only (15 April)
All MORS Members: $325
All Non-MORS Members: $375
Entire Workshop (15 - 17 April)
US Federal Government – MORS Member: $575
US Federal Government – Non-Member: $640
Non-US Government – MORS Member: $675
Non-US Government – Non-Member: $750
MEALS: A continental breakfast will be available each day. There will be a catered buffet lunch each day. The cost of lunch is $15 per day. Please include payment for lunches with your registration fees if you want them.
For more information about this workshop, you can visit the MORS web site at www.mors.org or contact the MORS office by phone at (703) 933-9070, by FAX at (703) 933-9066, or by email at morsoffice@mors.org Terms of Reference
All foreign visitors must submit a Visit Request form to Argonne. Standard DoD Visit Request forms are not required for US citizens.
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Last modified: May 1, 2008 |
