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How Risk Assessments Inform National Security Decision Making

A Joint MORS/
SARMA Workshop
14 - 17 October 2014
DoD Mark Center, Alexandria, VA


Agenda and Participants Guide

Participants Read These Important Instructions!

Phalanx Article About This Workshop

Please join us for  “How Risk Assessments Inform National Security Decision Making,” 14-17 October 2014 at the DoD Mark Center in Alexandria, VA.  This workshop sponsored by the Military Operations Research Society (MORS) and the Security Analysis and Risk Management Association (SARMA) will enable a better understanding of how risk is used to inform national security decisions throughout the government including many applications in the Department of Homeland Defense (DHS) and the Department of Defense DoD).  Key participants will include the defense, intelligence, and homeland security communities as well as practitioners from industry and academia.  

The workshop will provide participants with a better understanding of the different ways risk analysis is used to support decisions across the US government with an emphasis on:

  • Understanding existing risk analysis methods and how they are used, including the relationships among the various methods with guidance on when to use each method.  
  •  Insights into best practices, limitations and lessons learned.
  • Deep dives into global logistics supply chain risk, product integrity risk.
  •  How risk is used to support the national intelligence mission set.  
The plenary will be an unclassified session and the Working Groups will take place at the Unclassified, Secret and higher levels.  The meeting is open to US and “Five-Eye” citizens.  Attendees without a clearance are welcome to attend the unclassified sessions as indicated below.

Working Group (breakout sessions) include: 

  • WG 1: Portfolio Risk Management (by invitation only – special clearance required)
  • WG 2: Risk Analysis in Product Integrity for Acquisition (Secret)
  • WG 3: Logistics Supply Chain Risk (unclassified)
  • WG 4: Risk Analysis in Support of National Security Decision Making (unclassified)

Tutorials and Short Course Offerings 

The first day, Tuesday, 14 October is optional and will focuses on educating participants on basic concepts of risk analysis and includes tutorial sessions on a variety of risk analytic topics.  These tutorials range from foundational basics of risk analysis to recent advances in modeling the adaptive adversary, terrorism risk modeling and challenges in validating risk models that deal with unobserved or extremely rare events.
An optional course with Continuing Education Units (CEUs) titled “Security Risk Analysis Using Oracle’s Crystal Ball”  will be offered on Tuesday and will contain instruction on risk analysis methods used by risk and decision analysts with an emphasis on practical modeling and simulation.  It will include hands on training using examples and techniques inspired from real world events such as terrorism risk modeling, improvised explosives devices, and adaptive adversary modeling.  Example models and course materials will be provided to the students.  The course will be equivalent to 8 hours of classroom education (0.8 CEUs) with course certificates provided to students that complete the course.  The instructor is Dr. Barry Ezell, President SARMA and Chief Scientist, Virginia Modeling Analysis and Simulation Center, Old Dominion University.  

Registration Fee:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Early/After Sep. 10
US Federal Government MORS Sponsor - MORS or SARMA Member $320/$400
US Federal Government MORS Sponsor - Non-Member                         $380/$475

US Federal Government -                              MORS or SARMA Member     $360/$450
US Federal Government -                              Non-Member                         $420/$525

All Others -                                                       MORS or SARMA Member      $400/$500
All Others -                                                       Non-Member                         $460/$575

Optional Tuesday CEU Course                   MORS or SARMA Members             $100
Optional Tuesday CEU Course                    Non-Member                                     $150                                
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