Chance-Informed Decisions

Chance-Informed Decisions Course

3-Day Course

2, 4-5 February 2027

1400 to 1800 ET 

Online (Zoom)


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Overview

Agenda

Instructors

Registration

Overview

This course will span 3 half-days, occurring on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday afternoons. There will be no class on Wednesday, but homework will be assigned to improve material absorption.

National security decisions involve significant uncertainties. Averages mask chances, leading to the Flaw of Averages. AI and Stochastic data quantify uncertainty and enable chance-informed decisions.

This MORS Probability Management Community of Practice sponsored course is built around class projects by individuals or groups of two, ideally based on actual work decisions involving uncertainties. Students will learn how to explicitly address chance using stochastic data and AI. Participants are encouraged to submit simplified examples from the workplace in advance.

Each project will address:

  • Basic Principles
  • Analytical Methodologies
  • Stochastic Data for Representing Uncertainty
  • Cross-Platform Interoperability
  • Interactive Applications to Communicate Experiential Understanding

AI will be applied at multiple levels.

Download Syllabus

Course Software: ChanceCalc is used in this course for the following reasons:

  1. It is free and open-source
  2. It is an Excel add-in and runs on Mac and PC
  3. Interactive, ChanceCalc models run thousands of trials per keystroke as opposed to requiring a Run command.
  4. Models built with ChanceCalc are pure Excel without macros and can be run as a Dashboard without the add-ins installed.
  5. ChatGPT can write code to convert such applications to Python or web application.

STUDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO INSTALL CHANCECALC PRIOR TO THE COURSE.

Agenda

Coming Soon

Instructors

Dr. Sam Savage

Dr. Sam L. Savage is the Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012) and Chancification: Fixing the Flaw of Averages (2022). He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty, and an Adjunct in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. He has a PhD from Yale University.

Dr. Gregory Parnell

Professor of Practice in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas and a ProbabilityManagement.org board member. Research interests include decision and risk analysis and systems engineering. Co-editor of Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, (3rd Ed, 2022), lead author for the Handbook of Decision Analysis, (2 nd Ed, 2025), and editor of Trade-off Analytics: Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace, (2017). He has a Ph.D. from Stanford University. Retired Air Force Colonel.

Mr. Philip Fahringer

Strategic Modeling Engineer Fellow with Lockheed Martin. Over 37 years combined experience in the military and industry. Master’s degrees in operations research and strategic studies, from the US Naval Postgraduate School and the US Army War College respectively, and an undergraduate degree in Business Logistics from Pennsylvania State University. Leads Lockheed Martin Corporation Strategic Modeling and Decision Support Community of Practice and Co-chairs the Military Operations Research Society probability management Community of Practice. Active with ProbabilityManagement.org since 2013.

Dr. Karen Gutierri

Associate Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, specializing in national security. She brings experience across defense education and research institutions including the Army Cyber Institute at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, Air University, and the Naval Postgraduate School. Her roles have included research leadership, curriculum development, faculty leadership, and cross-sector collaboration at the intersection of technology, security, and policy. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of British Columbia and is affiliated with Janos LLC and Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation.

Mr. Connor McLemore

Chair of National Security Applications at ProbabilityManagement.org since 2014. Former Naval Postgraduate School Military Assistant Professor and Operations Research Program Officer. Graduate of the United States Navy Fighter Weapons School (Topgun) with numerous operational deployments during 20 years of naval service. Has taught SIPmath at the Naval Postgraduate School and co-authored several articles and models displayed on the nonprofit’s Military Readiness page.

Mr. Matthew Raphaelson

Technical Director of ProbabilityManagement.org. For 25 years Matthew was the CFO for a large financial services business unit with broad experience in finance, data science and risk management. He is currently advising the California Public Utilities Commission on upgrading its Risk Decision Framework by tying together the concepts of risk management, financial discipline, and chance-informed decisions. He has been involved with Probabilitymanagement.org since its inception over 10 years ago and is the director of financial applications. He holds a BA from the University of Michigan and MBA from Stanford University.

Registration

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The "Invoice Me" option can only be used for the registration fee. This option won't appear if you have social tickets, CEU courses or tutorials in your cart. If you need assistance registering please contact Ms. Karla Lee-Riviere, karla.lee-riviere@mors.org.

Employer

Member

Non-Member
Sponsor $810 $840 
Federal Government $840 $870 
National Research Partner $827 $855 
All Others $870 $900 


*Government Sponsor organizations include: Center for Army Analysis, HQDA/DCS Program G-8; Marine Corps Combat Development and Integration; Naval Operations, N81; Secretariat of the Air Force, Studies and Analysis SAF/SA; and OSD, A&S.