Welcome to PHALANX Online, the electronic complement of the premier quarterly MORS Bulletin.
The Summer of 02 is now over and with that vacations, picnics, and the 70th MORSS. We are now one year from 9-11, and
many changes have occurred and more may occur. With that in mind, the MORS President,
Ted Smyth, has selected “Military Operations Research for Tomorrow’s Warrior” as this year's
MORS theme. It will also be the theme for the 71st MORSS to be held 10-12 June 2003 at Marine Corps Base, Quantico, VA. So start planning now, both for responding to the
upcoming call for papers as well as attending the Symposium next year.
Lee Dick, PHXOE
New Techniques: A Better Understanding of their Application to Analysis
When: 19-21 November 2002
Chair(s): Dr. Roy Rice, PP, and Dr. Bob Sheldon, PP.
Background
MORS previously held a Workshop on Warfare Analysis Complexity, 15-17 September 1997, at Johns Hopkins
University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL), Laurel, Maryland, with 165 people attending. As stated in
the report, "The primary goal was simply to familiarize participants with the new sciences and to encourage
discussion about their relevance to military operations research."
The purpose of this mini-symposium of Tutorials is to further the professional development of our members by
offering educational sessions on the most current scientific topics in our military OR profession. By having
a Special Meeting that is nothing but Tutorials, we can ensure more analysts attend and gain a solid
understanding of new techniques. A message resounding from several of our senior leaders in military OR
is that OR analysts need a better understanding of current developments in new techniques such as these as
they apply to military OR. The target audience for this mini-symposium includes both OR analysts and OR
managers, since they also need a good solid understanding of current developments in these new techniques.
Type of Special Meeting
Tutorial #1 - Agent-Based Models (ABM) and Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
The format of each Tutorial will be theoretical presentations in the JHU/APL Kossiakoff Center auditorium
interspersed with hands-on exercises in the adjacent classrooms.
Please, visit our website, www.mors.org and submit your application to
attend. Come join us in a voyage of discovery.
Where: Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Technical Chair: Lt Col Greg McIntyre (USAF)
In the past several years, the organizing committees for the MORS annual symposia have had many potential
topics for Tutorials but found that scheduling them to get maximum attendance is difficult because of so
many conflicting events at the symposia. Compounding this problem is the fact that it's hard to cover
Tutorials on scientific applications in one hour. The state-of-the-art of our profession in terms of tools
and techniques are advancing rapidly and so many of our members need an opportunity to catch up on the latest
topics and techniques.
This will be a three day Mini-Symposium. Each day will focus on a distinct Tutorial topic. The Tutorials will
be on specific analytical techniques
Tutorial #2 - Optimization Heuristics - (e.g., Genetic Algorithms (GA), Simulated Annealing (SA), Tabu Search
(TS), Evolutionary Programming (EP))
Tutorial #3 - Statistical Resampling (SR) and Data Mining (DM)
Individuals, who, because of their significant contributions to the Society, are elected by the Board of
Directors, and are designated Fellows of the Society. For outstanding and dedicated service to the Society,
the Board of Directors has bestowed upon: Mary G.B. Pace, Vincent P.
Roske, Jr., and Jerry A. Kotchka the
honor and title of Fellow of the Military Operations Research Society, dated June 18, 2002.
Military operations research contributes effectively to the nation's security to the degree that it meets the evolving needs of defense in a timely manner. To grant recognition to individual practitioners who have authored a technical paper that initiated or contributed to technical analytical understanding and that was judged to be the best published in Military Operations Research during the previous calendar year, the Military Operations Research Society and Military Applications Society have jointly established the MOR Journal Award. The Directors of the Military Operations Research Society and the Military Applications Society Council have chosen to present the award to two papers in 2002. Recipients are: Norman D. Curet, for his paper entitled The Network Diversion Problem in MOR Volume 6, Number 2, and Alan R. Washburn & Ryusuke Hohzaki for their paper entitled The Diesel Submarine Flaming Datum Problem , in MOR Volume 6, Number 4. Awards were presented on 3 June 2002 at the 5th Annual MAS Conference.
The MORS Monterey Student Chapter was officially established May 28, 2002 when Wayne P. Hughes, Jr.,
Dean of the Graduate School of Operational and Information Sciences at the Naval Postgraduate School,
and MORS Past President and Fellow of the Society approved the Organization Document for the Chapter.
The officers of the Chapter are Maj Bill Hallahan, USMC, President; Maj Britt McNeill, USMC, VP
for Activities; and LCol Drew Jensen, USMC, VP for Finance and Admin.
Presented to Michael F. Bauman
Mr. Michael F. Bauman is recognized as the 2002 Military Operations Research Society Vance R. Wanner Laureate for
his exceptional contributions to the military operations research profession. As Director, US Army TRADOC
Analysis Center, his actions have covered the most important aspects of the profession, from tireless
development of today's junior analysts into tomorrow's leaders, continuous pursuit of new technologies as
enablers of improved analytical capabilities, application of these resources to the most important problems
of the military, and presentation of the products of the profession-insights, to the leadership in a timely
manner in terms they understand. His contributions to MORS through his own activities and those of TRAC
personnel across all MORS functions are outstanding. His broad ranging accomplishments as an innovator,
entrepreneur, and service-oriented leader in improving the capabilities of the Army's greatest asset, the
soldier, reflect great credit upon the military operations research profession, the Society, and the US Army
Training and Doctrine Command.
18 June 2002 at the 70th MORSS, Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas
Presented to Dr. Gregory S. Parnell, FS
Dr. Gregory S. Parnell, FS is presented the Clayton Thomas Award in recognition of his distinguished technical
contributions and service to the military operations research community. Dr. Parnell's operations research
theory development, decision support tools implementation, and successful applications have directly enhanced
the image of military operations research with DoD and Intelligence Community leaders. As editor, he and his
associate editors have made the Military Operations Research journal the premiere journal in our field. As an
educator, he is responsible for the increasing use of multiple objective decision analysis techniques to
support DoD and the Intelligence Community decision makers.
18 June 2002 at the 70th MORSS, Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas
Presented to Prof Alan R. Washburn
Military operations research contributes effectively to the nation's security to the degree that it meets the
evolving analytical needs of defense in a timely manner. To grant recognition to individual practitioners, who
have authored a technical article that initiated or contributed to technical analytical understanding and
judged to be the best published in PHALANX during the previous calendar year, the Military Operations Research
Society has established the John K. Walker, Jr. Award. The Directors of the Military Operations Research
Society have selected, for this award in 2002, Professor Alan R. Washburn, "Bits, Bangs or Bucks? The Coming
Information Crisis" Part I - Sep 2001 and Part II - Dec 2001.
There is a crisis approaching for military operations research, centered on the role of information on the
battlefield. It is clear to military professionals that information is becoming increasingly important, but
the OR profession's ability to measure the contribution of information is still primitive. We are not even
sure how information should be measured - is it measured in bits, bangs, bucks, or what? This article,
published in two parts, highlighted the approaching crisis by surveying techniques currently available for
measuring information.
18 June 2002 at the 70th MORSS, Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas
Awarded to Branford J. McAllister
F-15/AIM-120 AMRAAM Weapons Envelopes: A Unique Application of Operations Research During Operational Testing
Air-to-air combat often is characterized by tradeoff decisions involving lethality and survivability. For
example, the choices of radar mode and shooter maneuvers that are best for the success of a missile (lethality)
place the shooter at greater risk to a successful engagement by his adversary (survivability). This paper
documents the results of an operational test and evaluation (OT&E) assessing these tradeoffs using operations
research tools. The test had two objectives: (1) assess the lethality of the AIM-120 air-to-air missile and
the validity of F-15-computed envelopes and displays as a function of radar mode and shooter post-launch
maneuvers, and (2) evaluate the effects of pot-launch maneuvering on survivability during air-to-air
engagements. There were three noteworthy aspects of this evaluation. The use of Design of Experiment (DOE)
and statistical techniques to plan the test, execute flight missions and simulations, and analyze results.
The second was the marriage of open-air flight test and simulation models to obtain realistic and tactically
sound test data. The third was a set of conclusions and recommendations pertaining to the tactical decisions
(tradeoffs) regarding radar mode and shooter maneuvers, and the impact of those decisions on engagement
success.
18 June 2002 at the 70th MORSS, Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas
Last fall Navy announced plans to award junior officers with technical undergraduate degrees a subspecialty
code. Navy uses the subspecialty code to fill critical billets both at sea and ashore with officers who have
requisite knowledge in certain areas not specifically related to their designator (e.g., surface, aviation,
submarine). The Chief of Naval Operations' Assessment Division (OPNAV -- N81) capitalized on this opportunity
to create award an undergraduate subspecialty in Operations Analysis (OA). Currently this code is called the
0042E code (soon to be redesignated as the 3211E code). This program will support the Navy's need for officer analysts who are in critically short supply. It is designed to identify qualified officers early in their career and encourage them both to pursue graduate studies in Operations Analysis and to apply their undergraduate degree in analyst positions throughout the Navy. Navy needs many more officers with Operations Analysis skills to improve decision-making, develop new warfighting tactics, support systems integration, and many other challenging analytical assignments.
The course requirements for a midshipman to be awarded a 42E code can be found at
http://www.usna.edu/MathDept/website/Mids/OA0042ECode/OASubSpecialty.htm.
At the Naval Academy both Mathematics majors and Quantitative Economics majors can fill the requirements by
making appropriate choices of elective courses. The intent of the requirements is that a person awarded a
42E code will be well prepared to enter the OR masters degree program at the Naval Postgraduate (PG) school
and has the educational preparation to be useful as a junior analyst assigned to an OR team before going to
the PG school.
CDR Keith Kowalski (HQ N81), the program manager for the Operations Analysis Subspecialty Codes
announced the entry-level subspecialty code in OA at the Naval Academy in November 2001. A ceremony to
recognize the first midshipmen to be granted a subspecialty code based on their undergraduate studies was held
on 26 April 2002. At this ceremony Rear Admiral Lewis W. Crenshaw, Director of the Navy's Assessment
Division, explained importance of this new program. Then the first group of midshipmen certified by the
Mathematics Department of the United States Naval Academy as having met the requirements were given
certificates by the Chair of the Mathematics Department, Professor Mark Meyerson, and presented to
Admiral Crenshaw. The midshipmen, commissioned as officers in the naval service on 24 May 2002, who earned
the undergraduate subspecialty code in Operations Analysis are:
Name Service Selection Major
1. Robert William Niemeyer Surface Warfare Quantitative Economics
2. Cole W. Muller Submarines Math with Honors
3. Alexander Earle Goodno USMC Pilot Quantitative Economics
On Thursday, May 23, 2002, the Center for Army Analysis (CAA), at Ft Belvoir VA, held a ceremony dedicating
one of it's two map rooms in memory of Mr Chester J. Jakowski, Jr, one of it's distinguished analysts.
Presiding at the ceremony was Colonel Michael Abreu, the Chief of Staff at CAA and Mrs Onalee Jakowski,
Mr Jakowski's widow.
CAA is an analysis organization that supports the Department of the Army and Major Army Commands worldwide.
One of its principal areas of expertise is the analysis of land warfare and theater-level operations.
The map rooms, containing military maps and computer screens, are the focal points for this type of analysis.
Mr Jakowski, who passed away at his home in Baltimore, on August 27, 2001, served for nearly 20 years with the
US Army at the Concepts Analysis Agency in Bethesda, Maryland, prior to its redesignation as the Center for
Army Analysis in 1998, and relocation to Fort Belvoir, Virginia, in 1999. During his federal service,
Mr Jakowski performed highly classified military campaign analyses in support of US National Policy and the
National Military Strategy. His work impacted senior-level decisions in the Department of the Army and the
Department of Defense.
Chester J. Jakowski Jr. was born in Baltimore, Maryland on 20 August 1946. He was raised and educated in the
city of Baltimore, before attending and graduating from Loyola College with a Bachelor of Arts degree in
English and Philosophy. He later went on to earn a Master of Science degree in Probability and Statistics
from John Hopkins University. In 1987 he was ordained a permanent Deacon in the Roman Catholic Church, and
devoutly served the congregation of Saints Phillip and James Church and the Dioceses of Baltimore.
Don Bates, a MORS Director, also has served as President of the Washington Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (WINFORMS) over the past year. At a meeting on May 20, 2002, he turned over the reins of that organization to Sean Vessey. Sean and Don are both MORS Members, and we are happy to see them so involved in our sister society. Those of you in the DC area who have not joined WINFORMS are missing out on some outstanding evening programs and great camaraderie. For more information, visit http://winforms.chapter.informs.org.
How Agent Based Models can be Utilized to Explore and Exploit Non-Linearity and Intangibles Inherent in
Guerrilla Warfare
Since the end of WWII, a host of groups and states have pursued their interests in the Low Intensity Conflict
(LIC) environment. One of the characteristics of LIC is that it is executed mostly by the rules of asymmetric
war or guerrilla warfare. In essence, guerrilla warfare often determines the shape of the battlefield in Low
Intensity Conflict environments and it remains a potent weapon for which armed forces increasingly must be
prepared. One of the best examples of guerrilla warfare has been occurring in Turkey-where conventional
Turkish Forces, with more than 100,000 soldiers, have been continuously fighting against approximately 10,000
PKK terrorists for more than 15 years. During this conflict, more than 30,000 people have been killed,
including about 4,000 Turkish soldiers.
Recently, many analysts have questioned whether conventional Operations Research tools based on precise
mathematical equations and detailed physical descriptions of combat can provide a realistic picture of the
complex and dynamic situations in which many military operations, and particularly guerrilla-type operations,
are conducted. With the advent of a complexity theory and its application to warfare studies, some researchers
are viewing warfare as a complex adaptive system (CAS) in which agents (soldiers and guerrillas) adapt, evolve
and co-evolve within their environment. From this perspective, a guerrilla force behaves like a complex
system, not only interacting with its environment, but also with dynamic (and often non-linear) interactions
among components of the forces. The interactions among different command levels and their subordinates, as
well as the commanders with the enemy are of particular interest. Agent-based models offer an opportunity to
analyze how guerrillas interact with each other and regular forces by concentrating on the behaviors of and
interactions of the participating entities.
This thesis utilizes the recently developed agent-based model Map Aware Non-Uniform Automata (MANA) to explore
non-linearity and intangibles inherent in guerrilla warfare. An infiltration scenario is developed based on
the author's experiences fighting guerrillas in the mountains of South East Turkey. To simultaneously
investigate the effects of as many as 22 input variables, recently developed Near Orthogonal Latin Hypercube
Designs and Fractional Factorial Designs are used. Utilizing a personal computer and the computational
capabilities of supercomputers run by Mitre for the Marine Corps Combat Development Center (MCCDC),
approximately 200,000 MANA runs were completed. The data are analyzed and graphically displayed using S-Plus,
Clementine, Ggobi, and Netica Software packages. Several statistical models are developed and compared using
a variety of diverse statistical techniques, including Cluster Analysis, Neural Networks, Regression Trees,
Linear Regression, and Bayesian Networks.
Interesting findings of this study include:
• More cohesive guerrilla forces who do not stay with their injured and form big groups when
attacking the enemy get better outcomes in an infiltration operation.
Biography
Arif Ipekci, First Lieutenant, Turkish Army
• Guerrillas obtain the best results in terms of enemy casualties by being aggressive,
attacking enemy vehicles/commanders and repelling enemy infantry. But this personality also causes them more
casualties.
• In this specific infiltration scenario, the Red side can negate the Blue side's advantage
in firepower and number by using 19 to 27 guerrillas in each infiltration team.
• Regression Tree models, enhanced with MART, and Bayesian Network models are the most
valuable analysis tools in this study. Specifically, they have the best visual representations of the data
that are easy to interpret. Moreover, they provide at least as good predictive power as all other models.
Arif Ipekci was born in Mersin, Turkey, in November 1974. He entered the Turkish Army Academy, located in
Ankara, in August 1992, and graduated in August 1996 with a Bachelors of Science in Systems Engineering.
Upon completing Infantry School in July 1997, he was commissioned as a platoon commander in the 19th Infantry
Brigade of the Aegean Army. He served there as an infantry platoon commander until July 1999. His next
assignment was a tank-infantry platoon commander in the 20th Armor Brigade of 2nd Army, which was located in
the southeast of Turkey. In this assignment, he led his platoon in combat against PKK terrorists. In June
2000, he was assigned to the Naval Postgraduate School to study for his Masters degree in Operations Research.
Upon returning to Turkey, this June, he will serve as a logistics analyst for the Turkish General Staff in
Ankara.
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• Collecting the FACTs on Military Operations in Urban Terrain (MOUT)
Introduction
US forces must increasingly prepare for full spectrum operations in an urban environment. However, current
capabilities to explore advanced concepts; develop new tactics, techniques, and procedures; refine materiel
and force structure requirements; and train forces and staffs in a simulation supported urban environment are
remarkably deficient.
The Army's Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center in Monterey, California (TRAC-Monterey), is
leading a Focus Area Collaborative Team (FACT) to facilitate the representation of urban operations in both
legacy and objective simulations. The Military Operations in Urban Terrain (MOUT) FACT, established November
2001, is co-chaired by both the Army and the Marine Corps. Though it is an Army sponsored program, Marine
Corps participation is vital to its success. The Marines have led the way in urban training and in the
development of tactics, techniques and procedures. The Marine Corps level of commitment to the MOUT FACT is
seen in their assignment of an active duty USMC officer to TRAC-Monterey. This officer will serve as the
Marine Corps action officer in support of this crucial modeling and simulation effort.
The Army Model and Simulation Office (AMSO) recently established a series of FACTs, to create a systematic,
deliberate approach to prioritizing and conducting modeling and simulation research. FACTs are designed as
Army-wide focus groups used to research, identify and coordinate simulation technology projects, in line with
identified Army Transformation critical issues and high-payoff areas. They emphasize cross-domain
collaborative teaming arrangements in developing an enterprise approach for what are currently identified as
the modeling community's most significant shortfalls.
The principle function of the FACTs is to assemble a community of expertise in a given area and to develop
the Army roadmap for investment in M&S technologies and enablers for specific modeling and simulation focus
areas. By formulating, documenting and publishing a coherent plan of research, the FACT approach should
identify M&S technology needs, help ensure duplication is avoided and facilitate a more economical use of
limited funds.
Continued in the Printed Edition
LTC Eugene P. Paulo, TRAC-Monterey, eppaulo@nps.navy.mil
CPT(P) Scott Crino, TRAC-Monterey, crinos@trac.nps.navy.mil
• Predicted FLIR Scene Technology Aids Aviation Warfighters
Introduction
"The winner of an engagement will usually be decided by the soldier or aircrew that gains surprise, acquires
the target, and accurately fires the fastest." This quote from FM 1-112, Attack Helicopter Operations
(U.S. Army 1997), unequivocally expresses the importance of "visual acuity" on the battlefield and shows Army
Aviation's foresight into what has evolved into two key enablers of the Objective Force: Information Dominance
and Situational Awareness.
At the tactical level, Army warfighters in such systems as the AH-64 Apache Helicopter, M1-Abrams Tank, and
M2/M3 Bradley Fighting Vehicle visualize the battlefield most often through thermal sensors. Forward Looking
Infrared (FLIR) sensors are used by soldiers to navigate, to orient on Engagement Areas (EA), and to acquire
and identify targets prior to ordnance release. Yet, at the tactical level, the Army does not have a fielded
system capable of predicting FLIR performance or even the capability of providing predictive FLIR imagery of
the battlespace. Warfighters using FLIR systems must rely on their own visual interpretation of the
battlespace based on two-dimensional topographic maps and low-resolution visual animations.
Weather conditions and target-terrain relationships significantly enhance or degrade FLIR sensor performance.
Degraded FLIR images make navigation, target detection, and target identification more difficult to the
warfighter who must visually acquire and identify enemy threats. Generally, weapons effective ranges exceed
the warfighter's ability to visually identify vehicular threats in FLIR. The inability to predict FLIR sensor
performance (due to weather, line-of-site considerations, and target-to-background terrain relationships)
further compounds the problem. This situation increases time required to detect and identify targets, exposure
time and often decreases the advantages of standoff. Achieving situational awareness in FLIR is a most
challenging endeavor.
Continued in the Printed Edition
Stephen T. Milton, Stephen.T.Milton@erdc.usace.army.mil,
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
• Simulation Supports Security Plans for Army Football
The events of September 11, 2001 led to significant changes in security procedures at United States military
installations throughout the world. After the initial maximum security procedures were relaxed, installations
were required to maintain heightened security requirements on a continuous basis. At a minimum, visitors
attempting to enter military reservations were questioned and their vehicles searched. The historic reservation
at West Point, New York, home of the United States Military Academy (USMA) was no exception. Prior to September
11, visitors flocked to West Point on a daily basis to enjoy the breathtaking views of this scenic location
along the Hudson River and to view the plethora of activities in which the Academy's cadets participate. Under
new security conditions, visitor access was severely limited.
Academy decision-makers were faced with an impending dilemma caused by running its Division I National
Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) football program while the installation was enforcing heightened
security procedures. The Army team was due to host its next home game at West Point on October 6 with an
expected crowd of 30,000-plus fans. To aid the security planning process for the upcoming home football
games, two questions were posed:
Given the lead-time required to plan and implement increased security procedures, Academy decision-makers
wanted quantifiable answers to these questions in a matter of hours.
The Department of Systems Engineering at West Point was tasked to perform an analysis of these issues to
provide quantitative input to the decision making process in a timely manner. Discrete-event simulation was
chosen as the modeling tool due to the extremely tight timeline given and the complexity of the problems.
The lead times required to adjust security plans for the upcoming home football game meant there was a real
time value for analysis. This rest of this paper provides a very brief overview of queuing theory and how it
is applies to this analysis. The assumptions and development of parameters used in modeling both of these
problems are also described. The simulation models built are discussed along with the results and
recommendations communicated to decision-makers. Simulation modeling proved effective since useful analysis
was provided in time to impact the security planning and decision-making process.
Continued in the Printed Edition
Major Michael Nowatkowski, Michael.Nowatkowski@usma.edu,
et al, US Military Academy
• What will be the impact on the surrounding road network just prior to a home football
game due to vehicles awaiting search at the gates of West Point?
• Can 30,000 fans be processed through metal detectors prior to entering the stadium in
approximately three hours?
• Outputs Should Not Equal Inputs
Dr Patrick D. Allen, Technical Senior Manager, General Dynamics Electronic Systems, pat.allen@gd-es.com
Abstract
This article briefly describes two types of problem that are commonly appearing in new models designed to
address Information Age issues: First, models in which the inputs have a direct cause-and-effect relationship
to the outputs, and second, models in which the inputs are labeled to appear as outputs. Our intent is to
describe these problems so potential model users can be aware of, and look for, these types of problems in the
models they consider.
Continued in the Printed Edition
Authors
Ms Annette C. Ratzenberger, Chief, Experiment Engineering Division, Joint Futures Lab, Joint Forces
Command, ratzenbergera@je.jfcom.mil.
• Heritage Paper for Phalanx
"My dear Warren,
Your letter of 10 Oct 90 has been forwarded to me by a long route including Lynn Jones! What an excellent and
charitable idea you have; it is one that is bound to be much appreciated by Wilbur's family. I'm afraid I have
nothing that can remotely match your anecdote.
I vaguely remember first meeting Wilbur at ORO in the early 50s. Of course, we were both young then and
relatively unimportant in organizational terms. Those were the good old days when relatively large numbers
from ORO, the Canadian Army Operational Research Group, and the Army Operational Research Group (UK) used to
meet in each other's countries at least once or twice a year. I think Ellis Johnson was a prime mover of the
idea of our meeting to discuss work-this was the time when many of the now standard OR techniques were first
seeing the light of day and was a very stimulating one in OR circles. But our meetings also regularly included
UK and Cda playing US at softball, and UK playing US and Cda at cricket. I can't remember if Wilbur was in any
of the teams or not-the criterion of choice I hasten to add was invariably 'inexpertize' in the sport!
But it was really much later that I got to know Wilbur well. He always found time to meet me when I visited US
from the Royal Military College of Science, and I remember with pleasure the many discussions we had on topics
of mutual interest-such as the inadequacies of our techniques of modelling combat and the terrain environment.
He regularly attended my annual International Symposium on Military Operational Research at Shrivenham, and
never failed to make a valuable (and often provocative) contribution to our discussions. The paper I enclose
which he presented in 1988 illustrates more fully than I can his perspicacity and independence of thought,
laced throughout by inevitable good humour.
On a more personal note, I directly owe the fact that I am now working virtually full time in the US to the
various introductions he gave me as a result of my work on the history and studies of OR during WWII. I shall
never be able to express my appreciation of his help for this in a sufficient manner. Like the rest of the OR
community, I have lost a valued and trusted friend.
With kind regards,
We are publishing the paper (originally presented at 5 ISMOR [International Symposium on Military Operational
Research], 1988, Royal Military College of Science, Shrivenham, UK) by the late Wilbur Payne, FS after the 70th
MORSS at Fort Leavenworth for two reasons. First, because Wilbur made significant contributions to the analytic
capability of TRADOC during the latter part of his career; second, because of the ever-timeliness of his views
on analysis and data.]
Continued in the Printed Edition
[The following paper was transcribed from an unpublished pamphlet titled With Love and Remembrance.
A Collection of Anecdotes and Writings About and By Dr Wilbur Payne, prepared by his friends and colleagues,
25 December 1990, actually compiled by Warren K. Olson, who, with many others, remembers Wilbur as a mentor.
The particular paper was provided by the late Professor Ronnie Shephard in response to a call from Warren.
The paper was accompanied by the following note, written by hand and dated 7 November 1990:
Ronnie"
Prize Criteria - To be eligible for the award, a paper must, at a minimum 1) be original and a self contained
contribution to systems analysis or operations research; 2) demonstrate an application of analysis or
methodology, either actual or prospective; 3) prove recognizable new insight into the problem or its solution;
and 4) not previously been awarded either the Rist Prize or the Barchi Prize.
To view the David Rist Prize Call for Papers go to the MORS website at http://www.mors.org/awards/RIST.html.