Welcome to PHALANX Online, the electronic complement of the premier quarterly MORS Bulletin.
Both the Online and Printed version of PHALANX are dedicated to our most honored and beloved First Fellow of the Society, the late Clayton Thomas. I've always contemplated how we could become more active in the Society. The answer is really simple...just follow in the footsteps of Clay. But then, that is a rather Herculean challenge, isn't it? No one could really ever keep up with him! In that vein, you will note the only articles on the front page of this edition are in reference to Clayton, everything else is linked to separate pages. Before moving on, note the new features in this edition. First, the linked table of contents and then the LOG Out feature which is an add on interactive web page to allow readers to enter any comments or feedback from either the online or printed version of PHALANX. L2D
The MORS membership mailing list is used to notify the membership of important information. Has your email address changed lately? If you did not receive the notice that PHALANX Online was posted, you might want to check with the MORS Office to make sure your address is up to date. You do not have to be a card carrying MORS member to be on the list.
In lieu of the usual archive article, this edition features something very special -- An Oral History Interview With Clayton Thomas (featured in Vol 4 No 2 of the MOR journal). This interview is available in PHALANX Online and but is not contained in the printed edition of PHALANX.
Dwelling on the MORSS theme of "Expanding Our
Horizons," LtGen William Begert
provides an Air Force perspective in his article which shares the
lead with MORS Fellow, Gene Visco's Appreciation
to Clayton Thomas in this edition of PHALANX.
General Begert "Expands the Horizon" looking ahead to
QDR 2001.
It's election time again and Immediate Past President Dennis
Baer introduces the slate of candidates for President
Elect who in turn describe their platforms. This years slate is
Vice President for Operations, Tom Allen, Vice
President for Professional Affairs, Julian Palmore
and Vice President for Finance and Management, Brian
Engler.
Vice President for Finance and Management, Brian
Engler, also provides a treatise on the
business end of the Society as well as a nice tribute to retiring
Executive Vice President, Dick Wiles, in
this edition's Veeps Peeps.
Jim Bexfield, FS, provides a report on
the recently held MORS Workshop "Joint Analysis: QDR
2001 and Beyond" and Denis Clements
and Sue Iwanski give a summary of the second
workshop this spring on "Evolving the Practice of
Military Operations Analysis in DoD."
Francois
Melese, Defense Resources
Management Institute (DRMI) gives an economic perspective on
investment in Military Education using the Naval Postgraduate
School as a case study.
Find out the winner of the 2000 Tisdale Award.
The report on the 25TH American, British, Canadian and
Australian Quadripartite Working Group Army Operations Research
Symposium hosted by the Center for Army Analysis is included here as
a Word document to preserve the original colored graphics and
photos.
Captain Wayne P. Hughes, Jr. USN
(Retired), FS, endorses Methods of Operations Research, by
Philip M. Morse and George E. Kimball,
1951, MORS reprinting 1998, 158 pages, $25.00, Search and
Screening, by Bernard O. Koopman, revised
edition, 1980, MORS reprinting 1999, 368 pages, $24.00 and
Naval Operations Analysis, by Daniel H. Wagner, W.
Charles Mylander, and Thomas J. Sanders,
3rd edition, Naval Institute Press, 421 pages, $22.95 in his
Professional Reading column. These should be a part of every
analysts library. Copies of the MORS reprints will be available
at the 68th MORSS.
Plus columns by the MAS President and the MORS President
Elect.
Tributes Spoken at the Memorial Service of Clayton Thomas, FS
Clay Thomas, who can be described most wonderfully as the quintessential operations analyst, is no longer with us. On 16 March Clay passed away, succumbing to cardiopulmonary failure, in the words of The Washington Post of 19 March.
It is difficult indeed to imagine the community of military operations research practitioners without Clay Thomas. He was ever a participant in all MORS functions and programs. He served, with diligence and intelligence, as the Air Force Sponsor’s Representative since July 1975. His sensible and eminently useful contributions to the Society have helped to increase its contributions to the nation’s security and defense in both quality and quantity. Clay has participated in so many MORS symposia, workshops and colloquia as to defy counting. One brief example serves to suggest his stamina and interest in the Society’s well-being. In a few short months of the spring of 1990 MORS conducted four major special meetings. A special t-shirt was designed to commemorate that hectic season, stating ‘I survived MORS spring 1990.’ Only two copies of the shirt were issued to people outside the stalwart MORS staff. One of the shirts went to Clay Thomas. [Modesty prevents me from identifying who got the second shirt.]
For the record, the community is fortunate that Bob Sheldon had the prescience to insist on conducting an oral history interview with Clay late in 1998. The interview gives us at least a smidgen of Clay’s professional experiences to read and re-read, both to cherish and to learn. The interview is published in Military Operations Research, Volume 4, Number 2, 1999, pp. 7-15. In that same issue of the journal of the Society is a paper, co-authored by Clay and Bob, one of Clay’s many significant contributions to our professional literature.
Clay’s history in the Society is one of repeated recognition by his peers and associates. He was president of the Society during 1973-1974. He received the Vance R. Wanner Award, the most prestigious of the MORS awards, in 1988. It is worth emphasizing the nature of the Wanner Award by quoting in part from the purpose of the award: it is ‘…to identify and recognize members of our profession who have advanced beyond mere excellence in individual achievement and have expanded the application of military operations research and raised its standards.’ To repeat: who have advanced beyond mere excellence. That phrase expresses Clay most succinctly. Recently the Society established a new award named the Clayton J. Thomas Award. The purpose of the award, in part, is ‘To set up a tribute to Clayton J. Thomas, a respected colleague who has given and continues to give so much of enduring value to the military operations research community as to merit continuing, dignified recognition.’
An early opportunity for me to have met Clayton was at meetings of a local society called the Washington Operations Research Council (now the Washington Institute for Operations Research and Management Science). Clayton and his good friend Walt Deemer were active in that local society as was I during the late 1950s and early 1960s. I recall a wonderful series of lectures that Clayton presented, to a very large audience at the old Institute for Defense Analyses building on Army Navy Drive; that must have been about 1960 or so. The first time I would have been with Clayton at a Military Operations Research Symposium, as they were called at that time, was at the 18th Symposium in September of 1966; that was the first symposium I attended.
My closest association with Clay came about when I was appointed Army Sponsor’s Representative to the Military Operations Research Society in 1987. Clay was the Air Force Sponsor’s Representative from July 1975. I served with Clay until my retirement from the Department of the Army in March 1997. From the beginning of my appointment, I always arranged to sit next to Clay at the administrative and management meetings of the Society’s Board of Directors, to insure that I heard every comment he made. There was a world of wisdom in his contributions to the Society and his expressions of Air Force and defense concerns in the arena of military operations research. A regular practice at MORS Board meetings was for the President of the Society, when the formal agenda was completed, to call on the Sponsors’ Representatives for comments. Clay, as the senior representative, was usually asked to speak first. It was a delight to follow him in making subsequent comments because he was so complete and comprehensive; it was often that I was able to say, "I fully agree with Clayton’s remarks" and then just sit down, with enough said. On other occasions, being a person of many words when few will suffice, I was able to use Clayton’s comments as points of departure and would expand on them, thus enhancing my own reputation as a ‘thinker and contributor.’
Immediately following the announcement of Clay’s passing, the electronic air was filled with messages. Here, without attribution, are a number of comments abut Clay and the community’s loss.
"Another Giant has left our midst." "I've been trying to recollect a MORS event, meeting, anything MORS related that I have attended in which Clay was not present. I can’t. There are few who have dedicated so much to the Society as Clay, and he did it for us. A Giant among Giants. His legacy will live forever." "Clayton was a truly dear friend, probably the kindest and most considerate person I have ever known. I spent many meetings sitting next to him. I will miss his warmth, consideration, and encouragement. He was and will continue to be an inspiration to us all." "There seemed to be an unusual chill in the air this morning. When I saw this [the announcement of Clay’s death] I understood. A very bright and very warm light has left this world. God be with you, Clay, as you are now with Him." "The halls and corridors of this grand building [the Pentagon] are very quiet this afternoon." "He's already missed." "The spirit of analysis he gave to us will continue to guide us." "We have lost one of our heroes. I am very glad that we didn't wait to honor him until after he died. Too often we don’t express our appreciation for people until it’s too late." [In response to the above sentiment] "Agree with your view...Clay was a pioneer in our field who understood and practiced the concept of scientifically oriented analysis to help decision makers operate their organizations effectively...we all will miss his insights and friendship.’ [Also in response to the sentiment about honoring Clay before he passed away] "Amen and amen." "The analysis community has lost a great mentor- God Bless!" "I'm sure we all feel his loss deeply. Clay set a very high standard, both in his own work and in his willingness and ability to help us as individuals and as a community." "The kind, little man was a GIANT! We will all miss him." "His legacy is the legion of young analysts — now matured — that he touched with his encouragement and wisdom. Our tribute to him will be through our deeds that continue his practices." "Clayton, we miss you already."
In 1989, after considerable analysis, the Society established formal membership criteria and classes of members. Of significance was the Society’s creation of Fellow of the Society as a special category of member. In the Society’s own words: ‘Because of significant, long-term contributions to the Society, certain individuals are selected by the Board of Directors to hold the title of Fellow of the Society. Fellows are elected for life. Selection as a Fellow is intended to be an honor and a recognition of contributions to the Society as opposed to a contribution only to the practice of military operations research…’ We identify the Fellows with the dates on which they were installed as Fellows. It should come as no surprise to you to learn that Clayton Thomas was in the first class of Fellows, elected in 1989. Moreover, we put the Fellows in order, within their classes, according to the dates of their first associations with the Society. It should also come as no surprise to you to learn that Clayton is Fellow Number One.
The Fellows meet once a year at a Colloquium on the Tuesday evening of the annual Symposium of the Society. Certain rituals are carried out at the Colloquia (the colloquium might equally be called a symposium, in the sense of the original Greek meaning of that word, that is, a drinking party — I qualify that with the words ‘in moderation’). The first rule of conduct or by-law of the Fellows is that the rules of conduct are not to be shared with non-participants of the Colloquia. As you can see, I have now violated that rule. The second by-law is that there shall be no by-laws. We do have an underlying principle guiding our actions: If we do it once, it’s innovative; if we do it twice, it’s tradition. An important tradition at the Colloquia is the raising of a toast to the Fellows Yet to Come. Fellow Number One, Clayton Thomas, has regularly led us in that toast, drawing eloquent and wonderful attention to the younger members of the military operations research community who are responsible for expanding the horizons of the practice and for sustaining the Society as an important contributor to national security.
Another tradition of the Colloquia is the raising of a toast to the Fellows Who Are No Longer With Us. Leadership of that toast is the responsibility of the most recently elected Fellows, designated the Junior Fellows. The names of the deceased Fellows, with the classes they came from, are recited in order. I am now going to usurp the role of the Junior Fellow at this time and ask you to join me in a ‘virtual’ toast to Fellow Number One Who Is No Longer With Us. To Clayton J. Thomas, analyst without equal and a friend never to be forgotten.
Clay Thomas was President of MORS when I was elected to the MORS Board for the first time around 1973. The Board took its job seriously, but it was more irreverent in those days. Sweet memory brings to mind Clay’s gravely voice maintaining a small measure of decorum amidst many outspoken Board voices and unrepentant opinions, like as not on any topic except the topic for decision.
Jim Bexfield, FS, John Friel and many others mentored by Clay (Thomas’s Tots?) are in a better position to tell the inside story of what actually transpired at Air Force Studies and Analyses, but my outsider impression was that he was the glue that bonded many generations of Directors into a more-or-less seamless continuity. I held a vision of Clay patiently weaving a pattern in the minds of those strong minded Generals, not to mention some zealous Colonels. It was, I thought, his job to remind them that analytical truth would carry a lot farther outside the Air Force than passionate opinion. I envied the Air Force his towering strength and matchless memories of corporate successes and failures in Air Force analysis.
When I was working on the first edition of Military Modeling in the early 1980s, Clay was a deep well of advice. Not only did he write two chapters, one of which is a classic on validation and verification, but he sent me samples of his own analyses of years gone by. They were clear, associated with an important issue, and compelling. One or two dealt with our core beliefs about how to do good, honest and sophisticated operations analysis in many circumstances. Others were exemplars of tightly drawn, carefully thought out, case specific, and unambiguously expressed advice to an Air Force decision maker who had a problem to solve.
I would love to see the corpus of Clayton Thomas’s best works compiled by one of his analytical offspring. I don’t mean his aphorisms; I mean the collection of his insightful analyses and guides to the analysts who learned best practice under his tutelage. The greatest thing a man can do in life is to find at least two young aspirants with the capacity for professional greatness and nurture their careers. Clayton Thomas understood. And he far exceeded his quota.
Seldom has one person been so loved and admired by so many. The loss of Clayton Thomas, the first MORS Fellow, will have a profound impact not only on his family, but also the Air Force and DoD analysis communities, and the 3,000 plus members of MORS. His gentle humor and keen insight will no longer guide the way.
I’ll never forget my first encounter with Clay. It occurred almost 30 years ago. I had just completed a paper on bomber penetration modeling for General Kent and someone suggested that I give it to Mr Thomas for comments. Did I get comments! But what stood out were their relevance, insightfulness, depth and especially the kind way in which they were presented. Needless to say, from then on everything I wrote went through Clay.
The years 1984-85 found MORS struggling with the financial ramifications of dropping the winter meeting. To help, the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) offered MORS free office space in its building. Almost everyone on the Board and Council were inclined to accept — except Clayton. He worried about MORS being too closely associated with any one Service, wondering, tongue in cheek, whether MORS should change its name to the "Naval" OR Society. Later, his speech to the Board, the most passionate I ever heard him give, carried the day. He had, single-handedly, turned an almost certain acceptance into a near unanimous rejection while retaining good relations with the Navy and CNA. We often think of Clay as a great mathematician, but his common sense and effective use of the King’s English also helped make him a great analyst.
In late 1985 I was selected as the Chief Analyst for AFSAA. My civilian counterpart was the organization’s Chief Scientist, Clayton Thomas. For the next three years, the most enjoyable of my professional life, we worked and traveled together daily. During our trips I learned a lot about Clayton’s earlier life, with his high school years being particularly fascinating. He skipped 10th grade geometry by writing a paper that proved he knew the subject — instead he read calculus and probability books obtained from the local library. During his senior year he joined with two others from his hometown to form a very select club. The entrance requirements were perfect scores on both the English and Mathematics sections of the 1937/38 equivalent of the SATs. I was fortunate to be privy to these tidbits from his earlier life since he rarely talked about himself or his tremendous capabilities.
Another memory from this period concerned a trip to Denver for an ORSA conference. Clayton’s civilian rank often merited Air Force executive jet travel. Many times I was lucky enough to tag along and did on this trip. We left Buckley AFB in Denver with no fanfare and made an intermediate stop for fuel at Offutt AFB. We exited the aircraft at Offutt onto an unexpected red carpet with music from a small band in the background. Clayton was greeted by the three-star vice commander from what was then HQ Strategic Air Command. The General entertained him in the DV lounge during our brief stay and escorted him back to the aircraft. Needless to say, we did not have any air traffic delays on departure. Clayton normally avoided formalities and protocol, but in this case he was caught by surprise, amused by the treatment — and I think he enjoyed it!
As I think of Clayton, I’m reminded of his love of country, love of analysis, great sense of fairness and ethics, and his boundless energy. He wanted to do, and be involved in, everything. I frequently recall the anguish in his eyes when he had to choose between two meetings scheduled for the same time. On the way home from the doctor’s on the same day he had his heart attack he suggested to his wife Jerene that they stop by the office. The doctor had told him not to go to work, but he said, "a couple of hours shouldn’t count." This was so typically Clayton.
An institution is gone. One day over 10 years ago Clayton had one of his meeting conflicts and asked me to sit in for him at a MORS Council meeting as the Air Force Sponsor’s Representative. After my remarks, someone paid me the highest complement — they said I sounded like Clayton. Clay, thanks so very much for your friendship, mentorship and lots and lots of wonderful memories. I already miss you terribly. Bex
My first memory of Clayton goes back to 1971, when, as a newly elected Director of MORS, I attended my first director's meeting. Clay and Jack Walker, FS sat me in between them and proceeded to show me, by their good example, how to contribute as an effective director. In a recent note to me regarding Clay's passing, Natalie Strawn Kelly said that "Clay was such a part of MORS," indeed, Clayton was a part of many parts of MORS; Past President, Director, Fellow, Air Force Sponsor's Representative, Chair of many technical sessions and working groups — including MORIMOC I — and an ever present participant at virtually every MORS Symposium, workshop, mini-symposium and Director's and Executive Council Meetings.
To illustrate, let me recall that Clay was elected MORS President in 1973. Shortly after his term ended, the then Air Force Sponsor of MORS selected Clay as Air Force Sponsor's Representative to MORS. Clay served effectively in this function under numerous Air Force Generals, right up to this time — a period of 25 years. This in itself is a record, and speaks well of the man. A highlight, to me, of each Director's and Executive Council meeting, was when it was time for Clay to comment during the Sponsors' portion of each meeting, he always had meaningful inputs; unique points of view on some of the topics discussed, helpful criticism when needed, and encouragement when a worthwhile new initiative for a MORS function was under consideration.
Clayton was the initiator and chair of the first MORIMOC Workshop — More Operational Realism In Modeling of Combat. To me, an outstanding part of this program was the extensive and directly applicable read-ahead package Clay assembled and provided to each participant. Clay's efforts inspired me to propose and chair MORIMOC's II and III, which dealt with developing better understanding and modeling of the soldier's performance in combat environments. Clay was a session leader in each of these programs. An example of the outstanding support he would provide was his voluntary page-by-page review of the two dozen or so papers comprising the draft final report of MORIMOC II — on his own time.
When Wayne Hughes, FS, became MORS President in 1985, he established a new Ethics Committee, charging Clay, Wilber Payne, Helaine Elderkin, FS, and myself to develop a Code of Ethics for MORS. As we wrestled with the many considerations leading to scoping of the candidate code, Clay supported our team with inputs, guidance and encouragement. To the best of my knowledge, the Ethics Code he helped develop is still the code used by MORS.
In 1990, the first five MORS Fellows were selected; Clay was number one of the group. When Ed Brady, FS, MORS President at the time, asked the group to select candidate Fellows for the succeeding several years, Clay's knowledge of key contributors in the early days of MORS was most helpful, as was his inputs to our efforts to perform fair and impartial evaluation of those being considered as candidates.
These are some of the parts of MORS which, to my knowledge, Clay contributed to. I'm sure there are many others, and those who were involved in them with Clay can speak of his contributions to those parts. Of one thing I am certain — MORS is a better Society because of Clayton Thomas – his influence, his dedication and his initiative — and those of us who worked with him are better persons because of our association with Clay. It was wonderful to have Clay involved in MORS for so many years; truly, he will be missed.