2002 RIST PRIZE CALL FOR PAPERS Reminder

MORS offers two prizes for best papers - the Barchi Prize and the Rist Prize. The Rist Prize will be awarded to the best paper in military operations research submitted in response to a Call for Papers.  For more information go to the MORS website (http://www.mors.org) or Volume 7 Number 1 of the MOR journal (pg 78).

David Rist Prize: Papers submitted in response to this call will be eligible for consideration for the Rist Prize. The committee will select the prize‑winning paper from those submitted and award the prize at the 70th MORSS. If selected, the author(s) will be invited to present the paper at the 71st MORSS and to prepare it for publication in the MORS journal, Military Operations Research. The cash prize is $1000. To be considered, the paper must be: 1) Mailed to the MORS office and postmarked no later than 26 September 2002; and, 2) Cannot be more than 10,000 words OR 40 pages (including graphics).  (Please send the original, six copies and an electronic copy.)

To be considered, the criteria that must be met are professional quality (problem definition, analysis of data and sources; sensitivity of analyses (where appropriate); citation of related work; description of approach; statement of assumptions; explanation of methodology; logical development of analysis and conclusions; and, summary of presentation and results).  The paper must also have a contribution to military operations research (importance of problem; contribution to insight or solution of the problem; power of generality of the result; and, originality and innovation).         

Get Ready for Albuquerque!

 MORS Workshop on Test & Evaluation, Modeling and Simulation and VV&A: Quantifying the Relationship between Testing and Simulation
October 15-17, 2002
Held at the Energy Training Facility on Kirtland AFB
MORS Hotel: Albuquerque Radisson (505) 888-3311

MORS Proponent: Mr Walt Hollis, Deputy Under Secretary of the Army (Operations Research) and Co-chairs by Dr Marion Williams and Ms Annie Patenaude. This workshop seeks to develop a set of recommended best practices derived from collecting and synthesizing policies, procedures and lessons learned to assist the Service and Agency Test Communities.

Background

As the use of models continues to become more prevalent in system design, expectations are that they will also become a more central tool supporting system developmental and operational test and evaluation.  In many cases, models or simulations could be expected to become a primary evaluation tool for addressing Operational Requirement Documents (ORDs) and Critical Technical Parameters (CTPs), and for resolving Critical Operational Issues (COIs).

With this increased reliance on M&S in systems acquisition, VV&A of M&S becomes even more critical.  While there have been considerable advances in M&S technology, there has been limited comprehensive research and review of VV&A methodology.  Most VV&A is accomplished with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) who review simulation predictions and test results, and provide a subjective opinion on the adequacy of the model.  There are few examples of an objective process or quantitative criterion that allows the decision maker to fully understand why the model is or isn’t good enough for the particular application. Furthermore, in many instances, there is inadequate definition of the intended application of the model – a critical element in any accreditation.

While SMEs play an important role in the accreditation process, test and evaluation data resulting from the use of real equipment and systems should provide a major source of data for V&V of M&S.  Statistical tests comparing test results and model results, and perhaps even some overall measure of “goodness of fit”, should be able to provide the analyst with a means of quantifying the validity of model results and assessing the degree to which models can support weapon system evaluation.

An issue of concern to the analyst and decision-maker in using models to supplement field-testing is the lack of credibility of the model in predicting outcomes outside its validated domain space.  While testing all aspects of a model is not typically economically feasible, validating a model in the center of the envelope and using it to predict performance at the edge of the envelope is not practical or valid. 

Workshop Goals and Objectives

This workshop has three interrelated, though distinct, objectives: to explore guidance and develop recommendations related to the:

1. Experience of the M&S community in the use of test and evaluation (T&E) data to support the VV&A of M&S.

2. Experience of the T&E community in properly using verified, validated, and accredited M&S to support both Developmental and Operational T&E processes.

3. Experience of the T&E and M&S communities in Accreditation Thought Processes and implementation.

The overall goals of this workshop are to:

·        Develop a set of recommended Best Practices derived from collecting and synthesizing:

1. Existing policies and procedures,

2. Previous or known barriers to implementation

3. Lessons learned in these two areas.

·        Determine gaps in the associated policies, procedures and practices that would be fruitful areas of future investment that would benefit the T&E and/or M&S communities.

For registration and more information go to http://www.mors.org

How you can help!

Do you think you have a case study and lessons learned that could assist the DoD T&E Community?

We want to hear from you!

We are looking for case studies and presentations that highlight V&V and Accreditation  Issues and Resolutions in T&E.  We want to hear both when you think you did it right, and if you had difficulties in the process.  This could be from the DoD Services and Agencies, other government agencies (e.g. NASA, DOE), Industry, and Academia.

Contact Annie Patenaude: apatenaude@northropgrumman.com

 

Henningsen Receives Defense Distinguished Civilian Service Award

 On December 4, 2001, Dr. Jacqueline R. Henningsen, FS, Director, Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency and MORS Fellow of the Society received the Department of Defense’s highest civilian accolade, the Defense Distinguished Civilian Service Award.  Highlighted in the citation were her achievements as associate director for Air Force Modeling, Simulation and Analysis.  The citation recognized her development of “inspiring collaborative solutions to challenging problems that reach beyond Air Force lines while ensuring the full power of Air Force modeling and simulation supports Air Force readiness.”  In a subsequent interview, Dr. Henningsen praised the members of both Air Force and DoD-wide teams that are focusing on development of common/joint synthetic battlespaces to enhance warfighting and training architectures.  She noted that it is critical that these efforts feature seamless integration of interoperable, persistent and reusable systems and components.

The DOD Distinguished Civilian Service Award is presented by the secretary of defense to employees whose careers reflect exceptional devotion to duty and who have made extremely significant contributions that cover a broad scope and lend efficiency, economy or other improvement to DOD operations.  Fewer than 50 Air Force civilians have received this award in its 46-year history.

Barker Elevated to AFSAA Technical Director

 An appointment ceremony was held on February 8, 2002, elevating Mr. Daniel P. Barker into the ranks of Senior Level (SL) member and into the position of Technical Director, Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency (AFSAA).   Glenn A. Kent, Lieutenant General, USAF, retired, and former Assistant Chief of Staff, Air Force Studies and Analyses, presided over the ceremony and Dr. Jacqueline R. Henningsen, Director of AFSAA, hosted.  Also participating was Dr. Robert Sheldon, former AFSAA Chief Analyst and former president of MORS, who provided family and guests with memories of AFSAA Chief Scientist Clayton Thomas, who was one of the original MORS Fellow and inspiration for the annual award presented by MORS in his name.  The SL grade replaced GS-16 through 18 supergrade positions with many protocol equivalencies to a military 07 rank. 

Mr. Barker, is a long-time member of Military Operations Research Society and chaired the 1992 annual symposium as well as the 1997 special symposium on Analysis of DoD Infrastructure.  During his career he has served as a naval officer, as well as an Air Force, Army and Office of the Secretary of Defense civil servant.  He has been involved in every major defense review since the first Base Force.  With the Army, he worked on combined arms analyses that focused on advancing the nation’s deployment of Theater Ballistic Missile Defense and Directed Energy Weapons.  In OSD, he managed the Infrastructure Map and conducted Readiness Assessments for the Defense Review Board.  Mr. Barker’s Air Force career encompasses base level, major command and department-level service.  He has worked functionally with command and control, manpower and logistics, along with programming the Future Years Defense Program.  As an analyst, he worked at the campaign level developing operational art and at the force structure level developing strategy options.

In his new position as AFSAA Technical Director, Mr. Barker evaluates cutting-edge developments in science, technology and testing in order to enhance AFSAA’s capability to inform the decisions and risk mitigating options of Air Force senior leadership.  He also conducts high priority, quick-look analyses for senior leadership decisions and mentors agency analysts in their analytic endeavors.

 

Leaders' Notes

Opening Up Military Analysis: Exploring Beyond the Boundaries, Vincent P. Roske, FS..............1

MORS President ¾ Focus on the Decision Maker, Dr Tom Allen...............................................3

MAS President ¾ OR to the Defense of the Homeland, Dr J.P. Ballenger................................. 4

Veeps Peep ¾ Meetings Reflect the Analysis for the Future, Annie Patenaude............................5

70th MORSS ¾ LTG Benjamin S. Griffin is Keynote Speaker..................................................18 

Features

Analyzing the OODA Cycle, Dr Terry Moon, Dr Ed Kruzins and Dr Greg Calbert....................9

The Key to a Revolution, LTC Michael Kwinn, MAJ Jay Beckerman
and 2LT Clinton Dodson....................................................................................................14

Workshop Report: Tackling the Space Community’s Analytical Challenges, 
Lt Col Suzanne Beers..........................................................................................................21

Spatial Operations Research: The Use of GIS in Military Operations Research at CAA,
Belinda Scheber, Mark Ricks and Gale Collins...................................................................26

Conducting Analysis of Alternatives: A Critical Thinking Approach, Dr Larry Rainey................30 

Departments

Standard Deviations ¾ Transformation of the Airborne Division, Anthony Zimmerman...............6

MORS Presidential Platforms...................................................................................................17

Meeting Announcements — Get Ready for Albuquerque...........................................................20

The Last Word........................................................................................................................36