Welcome to PHALANX Online, the electronic complement of the premier quarterly MORS Bulletin.
Leaders in the DoD analytic community are calling for an examination of how we perform analyses. They are asking us whether our analysis practices warrant examination to improve their effectiveness.
The keys to effective analysis in DoD are analysts, the knowledge they have access to and the process by which they access knowledge to perform analyses.
We will focus on improving analytical processes by focusing on the innovative management and application of knowledge, both tacit (the knowledge in the minds of the experts) and explicit (the knowledge that is recorded in various ways). There is an explosion of new thinking and new supporting technology to capture and apply knowledge more effectively. This area includes innovation in the discovery, organization and sharing of knowledge. Innovations include: correlation landscapes, data mining tools, virtual information centers and influence diagrams. We need to examine how to:
Create an Intelligent Analytical Enterprise Perform Enterprise Knowledge Management Apply Analytic Knowledge Effectively
The workshop will develop a recommended action plan to bring Knowledge Management practices and technology to bear on the practice of analysis in the Department of Defense. Click here to find out more information.
The annual MORS Education Colloquium will be held 4-5 April 2000 at MITRE, McLean Virginia, with the theme "Expanding the Sciences - The Interdisciplinarity of OR." Priscilla Glasow, MITRE, chairs the Education and Professional Development committee. Click here for more info. Last year's colloquium focused on the junior analyst in keeping with then President Dennis Baer's theme. On of the presenters, Deanna Doan, has provided her presentation for viewing in PHALANX Online. You can view it below and if you would like a hard copy, you can contact Deanna. Her email address is included on the index page.
A C4ISR workshop will be held in late November 2000 at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab (JHU/APL) Kossiakoff Center. RADM Robert Nutwell chaired the previous C4ISR workshop held 27-29 October 1998, at the US Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Carlisle, PA, and is spear-heading the follow-on workshop.
POSITION ANNOUNCEMENT
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT
MILITARY OPERATIONS RESEARCH SOCIETY
POSITION
The Executive Vice President (EVP) manages the day-to-day activities of the Society. This includes interacting with members of the Society, supervising a full-time staff of four individuals, preparing budgets and financial reports, and overseeing the office automation (DBMS, computer network). The EVP frequently interacts with the senior Department of Defense officials who are advocates of Military Operations Research and with other senior official that concern the Society and how its activities can best support military analysis such as the annual symposium, focused workshops, and publications. The EVP is also an official spokesperson for the Society at meetings with sister other societies and other organizations. The EVP negotiates legally binding contracts for the Society.
THE CANDIDATE
The position requires a current final SECRET clearance and experience in leading and performing military analysis. Previous involvement with the Society and an advanced technical degree (e.g., OR, engineering or one of the sciences) is highly desirable but not mandatory. In addition, the candidate should have excellent leadership, communication, and management skills, and a demonstrated ability to work with the public. He/she should be self motivated and have demonstrated an ability to work with military organizations, senior Department officials and the public. Financial/budget and office automation skills are also desirable.
Closing Date: Submit: Submit applications resume with references on or before 21 April 2000 to:
ETC
c/o Military Operations Research Society
Landmark Towers – Suite 202
101 S. Whiting St.
Alexandria, VA 22304
Anticipated starting date: July 2000
Refer questions to: Jim Bexfield (703) 845-2107 or
Christine Fossett (202) 512-2956
MORS is an Equal Opportunity Employer (M/F/D/V)
If you haven’t made plans to attend the 68th MORSS, it is time to begin. The 68th MORS Symposium will be held at the US Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, Colorado on 20-22 June 2000 with a theme of "Expanding our Horizons." Early registration ends in just a few weeks on April 14th.
As this is being written the program committee is working to put together an interesting, high-quality program for the conference. Additional details, registration forms and information can be found here.
If you haven’t decided to attend yet, here are two reasons you might want to consider coming: to learn and to share what you know with others. The Symposium contains ample opportunities to do both.
Working Groups / Composite Groups
COL Mike McGinnis' team — the Working Group and Composite Group Chairs and Co-Chairs — are the people who put the core of the Symposium together. There are 32 Working Groups and 7 Composite Groups that cover the full spectrum of military operations research. Eight of the 12 Symposium sessions are devoted to the working groups and composite groups. Many of the Symposium attendees concentrate their time and attention on one or two working groups that are closest to their current work. This is your opportunity to get a great overview of the activity going on in your area of interest. You can learn how others are attacking similar problems.
The working groups are also a place to share what you know. You don’t have to present a paper to do this. Presentations of work in progress are encouraged. You may have the insight to help ensure the success of their effort. The working groups need your active participation in their discussions.
You can also choose to expand you horizons and attend working group or composite group sessions outside of your normal areas of work. While grounded in the scientific method, Operations Research has always drawn on other disciplines for good ideas, methods and techniques and adapted them to help solve the problem at hand. You may find that good idea in one of the other groups or have the good idea for which someone else is looking. One of the benefits of the symposium is the chance to see what the entire military operations research community is doing. You can also get a sense of how your organization's work compares to the community standards.
Special sessions
Col Ken (Crash) Konwin and his team have put together a diverse Special Sessions program. The Special Sessions will begin at 1530 daily, and will be held in one of the auditoriums or larger lecture halls in order to accommodate everyone who will want to attend them. There are recurring Special Sessions with which you may be familiar. These include the Junior/Senior Analyst Sessions (see Jay Wilmeth’s article for more information), the Education Session, the Heritage session, and the Rist and Barchi Prize awards and paper presentations. The Barchi prize recognizes the best paper presented at the prior year’s Symposium, while the Rist prize is awarded to the best paper submitted in response to an annual call for papers. The prize paper session gives you the chance to hear these outstanding efforts. The Heritage session offers you a chance to learn more about the history of military operations research and the problems it has tackled over the years.
"Joint Analysis: QDR 2001 and Beyond" will report on the results of the mini-symposium held in February 2000 to: (1) Examine DoD assessment capabilities for performing QDR 2001 (to include such activities as gaming of advanced operational concepts); (2) Provide a non-confrontational environment in which OSD, the Joint Staff, Defense Agencies, Unified Commands, and the Services can discuss analytical plans and preparations for QDR 2001; (3) Provide ideas and analytical status to OSD/JCS decision makers that are planning and structuring QDR 2001 and (4) Identify other activities that can help joint analysis in the 21st century.
"Evolving the Practice of Military Operations Analysis in DoD" will report on the results of the mini-symposium held 29 February – 2 March 2000 to: (1) Establish a vision for improving analytic practice and the management of supporting analytic knowledge in DoD; (2) Create a plan to realize the vision to improve analytic practice and the management of supporting analytic knowledge in DoD; (3) Define how MORS may work with the sponsors over time to implement improvements to analytic practice and to the management of analytic knowledge in DoD.
"Military Recruiting and Retention For The 21st Century" will report on the mini-symposium held in September 1999 to contribute to the deliberate planning of military personnel management efforts by developing a clear understanding of the factors which shape the recruitable population pool and the retention of those already in the service.
In addition to the special sessions there will be noon-time demonstrations of some of the new generation models being developed by the defense community. Models planned include JWARS and STORM.
Tutorials
The tutorial sessions put together by Bart Bennett his team will give you a chance to learn more about some of the new sciences and analysis techniques. The tutorials planned include "Mining of Spatial Data," "Chaos, Complex Adaptive Systems and Non-linear system dynamics," "Are we really capturing uncertainty - deterministic vs Monte Carlo methods," "AoAs (in 10 easy steps)" and "Why No Coin Flip Is Random (!?)"
Finally if you are thinking about volunteering to help as a working group chair or co-chair you definitely want to attend the "How to Run a Great Working Group" tutorial.
Evening Activities
The MORS Symposium is the one annual event that brings representatives from the entire military operations research community together. The two evening social events, the Tuesday evening mixer and the Wednesday evening dinner are intended to give participants an opportunity to make and renew their friendships and contacts in the community.
The Tuesday evening Mixer features the poster session, highlighting some of the best working group papers from last year’s MORSS. This is you change to see some of the best work in the community and to discuss the work with the authors in an informal setting.
The Wednesday evening social event will be held at the Pro Rodeo Hall of Fame where we can enjoy the Colorado Springs scenery with a Western BBQ dinner. Planning is already under way to make this event one of the highlights of the 68th MORSS.
Colorado Springs
One final reason to attend the conference is the location. The US Air Force Academy is located in Colorado Springs, Colorado on the edge of the Rocky Mountains. The Colorado Springs area offers many attractions and activities, including near by Pike's Peak. We are also planning an interesting spouse/guest program for those that accompany you while you are at the symposium.
You can find out more about the US Air Force Academy at their web page: http://www.usafa.af.mil and you can find out more about the Colorado Springs area at http://www.coloradosprings-travel.com and http://www.colorado-springs.com.
For those of you still undecided about attending the 68th MORSS we hope we have provided you a couple of additional good reasons to attend. We will provide more information in the June PHALANX to help you plan your activities at the symposium. Plans are to include additional details for the tutorials, poster session, the junior senior analyst sessions and the other activities at the symposium.
If you have any questions about the symposium, please contact the MORS office at 703-751-7290 or the appropriate member of the program committee. Make your arrangements now to attend and participate in the 68th MORSS at US Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs from 20 to 22 June, 2000!
PHALANX Online
As a supplement to our printed paper version of PHALANX, we maintain a web-based PHALANX Online. CAPT Lee Dick, USN, is the Editor of PHALANX Online. As the lead-in to this web page says,
"This is the electronic variant of the premier quarterly MORS bulletin and is not a replication but rather a complement to the printed edition. To provide a preview of upcoming articles, the web edition is posted the month preceding the published edition. It also provides an outlet for larger announcements and administrative information, leaving more space for technical articles in the printed version.
"PHALANX Online will also permit material that has normally been too lengthy or graphically intensive to be available for the membership. As the online supplement grows, it will also be used as a venue for multi-media publishing.
[Note: This article was not configured for web viewing to allow you to print it in black and white]
What was PHALANX originally named? When was it first published? Who was its first editor? The answer to these questions can be found in the ARCHIVES, which features the maiden edition of PHALANX.
Melissa Buckmaster provides a description of NIMA's
Geospatial Information Process Simulation.
Lt Col Mark A. Gallagher and Dr James T. Moore,
Department of Operational Sciences Air Force Institute of
Technology, provide a fundamental lesson in Decision Making in OR101.
In
their article entitled Scenario Analysis in US Army Decision
Making, Richard R Laferriere US Army TRADOC Analysis
Center, and Stephen M Robinson, Department of Industrial
Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, describe an
informal a technique for modeling and optimizing decisions under
uncertainty.
The
Director of Naval Training is sponsoring a program called
Quantitative Fleet Feedback to measure the performance of fleet
units during workup exercises based on Mission Essential Task
Lists. Dick Esslinger expands on the QFF presentation
given by CAPT Lee Dick in Working Group 22 at the 67th
MORSS.
And
don't forget to check what President Bob Shelton, MAS
President Bruce Fowler, and MORS Secretary Ted Smyth
(Veeps Peeps) have to say in this edition.
In 1998, MORS reprinted the classic Methods of Operations Research by Morse and Kimball. In 1978, Dr Philip M. Morse was the first recipient of the Vance R. Wanner Memorial Award, named after the Society's first Executive Secretary. Each year the Society grants the award to a military operations research professional who is deemed to have played a major role in strengthening the profession. In 1999, MORS reprinted the classic Search and Screening: General Principles with Historical Applications by B. O. Koopman. Dr Bernard O. Koopman was the second recipient of the Vance R. Wanner Memorial Award in 1979.
Lt Gen Glenn A. Kent, USAF (ret), was the third recipient of the Vance R. Wanner Memorial Award in 1980. Gen Kent was cited for "his outstanding contributions to the military operations research community in general and to the Military Operations Research Society in particular. Over the years, General Kent has enriched the content — and strengthened the credibility — of military operations research as a significant and influential discipline for defense decision making at the highest levels of the United States Government. He has been uncompromising in his insistence upon complete objectivity in analysis and his unswerving devotion to the principle that the purpose of operations research is to illuminate, rather than to advocate. ..."
In this issue of PHALANX, we are reprinting in its entirety one of Gen Kent's most widely circulated articles "On Analysis." This article was originally published in the May 1967 issue of Air University Review, and copies of the article are still being circulated at the Air Force Institute of Technology and elsewhere in the military OR community. Gen Kent continues to have a positive impact on MORS.
Bob Sheldon,
MORS President
Lieutenant General Glenn Kent (ret) has been a truly outstanding force for sound operations research analysis — its practice, expansion, strengthening and teaching. Above all, he has seen and stressed the roots of analysis in the scientific method. He has underlined the importance of seeking simple and powerful models through long and disciplined thinking.
The basic ideas in "On Analysis" are timeless though the applications change as the problems change. Computers can make some of the analytical tasks less tedious if properly used. Unfortunately, some executives have been led to believe that computer simulation models can make decisions automatically. A related result is failure to educate analysts to think deeply about the formulation and search for simple models. Too many courses deal primarily with techniques. The use of case studies can show analysts how previous problems were approached successfully. Courses that include case studies and exercises requiring students to work on current problems can help them learn how to think about problems. For many years General Kent has urged the inclusion of more case studies in operations research courses.
General Kent’s career and exposition of good analysis constitute a gigantic case study that has educated students and executives for many years. His paper "On Analysis" is a true classic — a masterpiece dissertation of analytic principles. It is worth frequent re-reading. The basic facets of analysis apply equally to studies in the broad spectrum from problems of the Cold War to Operations Other Than War.
Commentary on Lt Gen Glenn Kent
by Clayton Thomas, FS
Chief Scientist, Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency
MORS Air Force Sponsors' Representative