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MOR Journal Abstracts
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Number 1 |
Modeling Maritime Interception – NCW and the Value of Informaiton (Ian Grivell and M.P. Fewell)
What types of military operations will most benefit from the adoption of a network-centric orientation? An international collaboration tackled this question by studying several types of operations of current interest to the participant nations’ navies. Included in the list were maritime interception operations (MIO), to which queueing theory was applied. Ian Grivell and Matthew Fewell extended this study to focus on the value of information potentially available to the interception-force commander. For this, they used a prioritized queue with a Bayesian belief network supplying the priorities. Information value is quantified by impact on overall operational effectiveness. The information considered concerns target-vessel intentions, such as may be available through, for example, reachback to databases recording past experience of a given vessel and/or intelligence on its current activities.
The study once again shows the utility of queueing theory for modeling military operations, and also indicates the usefulness of Bayesian networks for addressing questions of information value. On the conduct of MIO, the authors derive a range of specific conclusions spanning issues such as the relative effectiveness of various concepts of operations, what to concentrate on when building up a database on potential target vessels, and the most useful types of information. The study provides an explicit example—one of very few—showing that quantitative modeling of network-centric warfare is possible; we can quantify the value added by adopting a network-centric orientation. (Pg. 5)
Aerial Search Optimization (Prof Moshe Kress and Dr. Johannes O. Royset)
Advances in sensors and command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) technologies, coupled with operational needs in counterinsurgency operations, have led in recent years to the intensive use of UAVs in special operations (e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq and the Gaza Strip). However, while the technology and basic operating procedures are well developed and widely used, very little attention has been given so far to tactical issues relating to the deployment and employment of UAVs in special operations search missions.
This paper presents a new optimization model for the deployment and employment of UAVs in special operations search missions. The research has been sponsored by the US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) and the model has been utilized as a planning tool in field experiments carried out at Camp Roberts, California, under the USSOCOM-Naval Postgraduate School Cooperative Field Experimentation Program. Empirical results from these experiments show a significant improvement in target-detection opportunities compared with search plans manually generated by commanders from USSOCOM employing their own judgment. (Pg. 23)
Multiple Criteria Courses of Action Selection (Dr. Adel Guitouni, Dr Jean-Marc Martel, Micheline Bélanger and Charles Hunter)
The complexity of new conflicts and effect-based operations (EBO) require that many decision perspectives and values be considered. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) offers an interesting and robust framework for formally considering multiple conflicting decision criteria and decision maker’s values when assessing and analysing different Courses of Action (COAs). Defence R&D Canada (DRDC) has investigated the implementation of MCDA to support military decision making. An Advisory System has been designed to demonstrate MCDA decision-support approach for the Command and Control. This paper reports on the development and implementation of multiple criteria methodology to support decision-making under a time constraint. (Pg. 35)
Psychology an dthe Mined: A Case Study in Psychological Barriers to the Use of Statisitcal Analysis (Dr. Scott Savitz)
Although statistical analysis can be valuable in making decisions regarding mine warfare and other fields, documented psychological effects can impede the use of such analysis. Both historical records and the psychological literature demonstrate that quantitative evidence is often dismissed in favor of uninformative verbal descriptions. Alternatively, the impact of statistical data can be powerfully shaped by a decision-maker’s prior experiences, a proclivity to perceive patterns, and/or improper contextualization. These and other effects can be corrected via two principal methodologies: by increasing awareness of the potential for misperception, and by creating an explicit list of reasons why generally accepted hypotheses may be wrong. (Pg. 51)
Operations Research in World War Two: Its Role in RAF Fighter Command (Prof M.W. Kirby)
This paper, based upon hitherto unpublished sources, identifies the role of Operations Research (OR) in RAF Fighter Command in the aftermath of the Battle of Britain in 1940. The main focus of the paper is the remit and organisation of OR in this particular Command and the extent to which it replicated practice elsewhere in the RAF. It also confirms that the status of OR in Fighter Command conformed closely to Patrick Blackett's contemporary views on the organisation and structure of military OR. (Pg. 65)
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