PURPOSE: The purpose of the Decision Analysis Working
Group is to provide a forum for the exchange of information concerning key
aspects of modeling, conducting, and interpreting meaningful decision analyses.
This exchange will foster a better appreciation for the role of decision
analysis in the context of DoD decision making. Our overarching goal is to
improve the quality of DoD decisions by improving the decision making process.
Decision analysis is ideal for tough, complex, multiple objective decisions and
includes DoD applications concerning military strategy, resource allocation, and
modernization of military systems. Also included in our charter is the need to
analyze decisions under risk and uncertainty. We will accomplish this goal by
encouraging the use of operations research tools within a theoretically sound
decision analysis framework.
DISCUSSION: Decision Analysis is a branch of operations
research that models complex, uncertain, decision situations by decomposing the
situations into smaller, more manageable pieces, and then quantifying and
evaluating the possible outcomes, as well as the multiple, often competing,
objectives that military leaders and decision makers must consider. The modeling
paradigms that have been developed to support decision analysis fall into two
general categories:
- Assessment of a decision maker's preferences and evaluation
of the alternatives using the assessment (e.g. Multi-Attribute Utility
Theory, Analytic Hierarchy Process, SMART, ELECTRE III, QFD), and
- Identification and quantification of key uncertainties
along with their effects upon the objective(s) (e.g. Influence Diagrams,
Belief Nets, Bayesian Networks, probabilistic spreadsheet analysis).
Some modeling paradigms allow inclusion of evaluation,
assessment, and effects of uncertainty (e.g. Value-Focused Thinking).
Additionally, decision analysis models are being incorporated as components of
larger "intelligent systems" which use other techniques, such as
linear programming, integer programming, and artificial intelligence, to support
automating command and control systems, fault detection, and resource
allocation.
OTHER WORKING GROUPS: The Decision Analysis Working
Group is a key component of Composite Group F (Acquisition) which includes:
Working Group 24 (Measures of Effectiveness), Working Group 25 (Test and
Evaluation), Working Group 26 (Analysis of Alternatives), and Working Group 27
(Cost Analysis).
Joint sessions have been held with these closely related
working groups within the Acquisition Composite Group as well as with other
application areas that can benefit from good decision analysis.
