Capabilities-Based Planning II: Identifying, Classifying and Measuring Risk in a Post 9-11 World

Booz Allen Hamilton, McLean, VA
4-6 April 2006

Terms of Reference
(Last updated 13 February 2006)

1. Background

The October 2004 MORS workshop on Capabilities-Based Planning (CBP) evoked an enthusiastic response from the more than 230 attendees. The goal of the workshop was to inform the community as to where the Department of Defense was in implementing this new paradigm for planning, to review the lexicon associated with this approach and suggest changes, and to exchange concepts and new ideas that will further the development of the Secretary’s CBP initiative. The workshop included classified sessions where U.S. members explored specific implementations in the Department as well as unclassified sessions that included specific examination of how some of our allies are using CBP. Because CBP is a relatively new initiative, a special educational session, chaired by Sue Iwanski, consisting of seven informative briefings was held on Monday afternoon. Another unique feature is that one of the charges of the workshop was to identify follow-on topics for a follow-on workshop already in the planning phases at the time of the original workshop execution. A key feature of both the October workshop and continuing discussion in the Department is the prospective CBP approach to risk. In December 2004, the MORS Sponsors approved combining the proposed follow-on CBP workshop with planning for a dedicated workshop to address risk in order to provide specific focus to the risk effort while continuing to evolve understanding and application of the CBP initiative.

The context of this new workshop includes:

	A changing strategy with greater emphasis on catastrophic, disruptive and irregular warfare challenges (WMD, GWOT, stability operations, etc.)
	A change in focus from systems to capabilities

2. The Technical Cooperation Programme (TTCP) Support.

This workshop is supported by the TTCP. The Technical Cooperation Programme (formerly known as the Tripartite Technical Cooperation Program) has existed since 1957 and was formalized by way of a 1994 five country (UK, AS, CA, NZ, and US) memorandum of understanding. The aim of the TTCP is to foster cooperation in science and technology needed for national defense. TTCP encompasses basic research, exploratory development, and demonstrations of advanced technology development. This scope includes the exploration of alternatives and concepts prior to development of specific weapon systems; feasibility demonstrations of innovative new concepts, techniques or equipment and their test and evaluation; the pursuit of alternate solutions to potential military problems; and generic systems. Collaboration within TTCP provides a means of acquainting the participating nations with each other’s defense R&D programs (ref: TTCP website).

Some TTCP members have participated in previous capability based planning activities and possess a wealth of knowledge and diverse perspectives based on their own national approaches. Including the TTCP in the MORS conference is intended to infuse the workshop with fresh perspectives and share information to enhance each nation’s common goals for developing a better understanding of CBP and its uses.

3. Goals and Objectives

There were several reasons for the October 2004 workshop:

	To identify ways to collaborate and cooperate to improve consistency, including with the allies
	To review the lexicon and suggest changes
	To identify emerging needs in theory, data, and methods – and suggest solutions
	Review the Department’s performance in implementing CBP (QDR, other OSD/JS activities, Services, etc.)

This workshop will build on the results of the previous activity while addressing the latest DoD leadership guidance on the capabilities-based approach, expanding the theory of CBP with specific focus on risk, and developing analytic approaches to the multiple levels of planning addressing appropriate risk issues at each level. Specific objectives include:

	Assess how CBP can be used to help in planning and decision-making in the Department
	Expand the theory of CBP with specific focus on risk and developing analytic approaches across the full spectrum of CBP
	Suggest actions the Department may take to help implement CBP DoD-wide (such as training needs, documentation, etc.)

To achieve these objectives, the workshop will examine a number of overarching questions:

What are the best approaches for doing capabilities-based strategic (level 1), mission (level 2) and systems (level 3) analysis?

What are the linkages between levels of analysis?

Do we need to consider systems when analyzing capabilities?

What tools exist to assess capabilities?

How do we support assessments in the Joint Capability Areas (JCAs) and how can they be incorporated into community models?

Do we need to update campaign models to reflect capabilities?

How do we articulate accepting risk in one capability or JCA to reduce risk in another? What is the risk relative to a capability?

How do we do trade-offs among JCAs?

How do we articulate reducing capability in one area to improve capability in another—what are the metrics?

How do you treat dependencies between capabilities? What implications does this have to risk?

How do we relate resources to JCAs?

How do we decide where to invest the next dollar and why?

If capability analysis begins with gap identification, how do we include new technologies that produce significant efficiencies in areas without gaps?

What kind of training/skills do people need to implement CBP. Do we need to establish training programs?

In particular, this workshop will focus on both the emerging procedures used by the Department to address CBP as well as the tools, data, metrics, and relationships of process with specific focus on risk issues.

4. Approach and Sequence of Events

A. General Concepts

A “Capability Based Planning” tutorial is scheduled for Monday, 3 April from 1330-1700. Areas to be covered include: Adaptive Planning, Joint Capability Integration and Development System (JCIDS), Joint Capability Assessments (JCAs), the Analytic Agenda, and outcomes of the MORS 2004 workshop.

The workshop will officially begin with a plenary session starting Tuesday morning with specified working groups formed to address key issues in the ensuing days. Observations will be shared on Thursday afternoon.

Working Groups will be split into sub-groups of 15-20 to facilitate discussion

Larger groups can share presentations intended to provoke thought, but will then break down into smaller groups for discussion and creative product development.

Focus will be on identifying viable analytic approaches, particularly with regard to risk.

Thursday PM will be used to present each working group’s insights, observations, and recommendations.

Working group output and cross-cutting issues identified and reported by the synthesis group, will serve as basis for final report.

B. Plenary, Tuesday 0800-1530

	Keynotes: Senior leaders in OSD and the Joint Staff will deliver the keynotes. They are expected to stress the continuing importance of CBP in the Department of Defense, to provide emerging insights, and to establish new challenges and expectations from the OR community, particularly with respect to risk.
	Overview of OSD and JCS Initiatives: This briefing will provide updated definitions and processes (i.e JCIDS, EPP, and the Analytic Agenda) and summarize actions taken as a result of or since the October 2004 CBP Workshop.
	Analyzing Risk: This briefing by Joint Staff (J5) will address efforts in assessing and understanding risk.
	Review of pertinent MORS and Department activities: This includes the October 2004 Workshop, items identified by ongoing studies, such as the Quadrennial Defense Review, and past practices for addressing risk.
	International: Participating TTCP members will discuss their national CBP procedures with a focus on acquisition processes and risk, differences from the US processes, recent promising initiatives, and areas needing further development, experimentation and assessment. Dr. Ben Taylor will update the group on TTCP initiatives.
	Challenge to working groups: Identify and further develop Capabilities-Based Analysis along performance, cost and risk dimensions

C. Working groups, Tuesday afternoon to Thursday noon.

Guidelines

	Address strategy and process issues with focus on risk.
	Use lexicon developed in the October 2004 workshop.
	Include QDR and adaptive planning as well as process and methodology issues.
	Address users and applications.
	Provide insights into Service programs as each has instituted some form of CBP and, through the QDR process, ways of addressing risk.
	Update implementation of CBP initiatives by DoD representatives in the functional areas of analysis, acquisition, planning and training.
	Draw upon the experiences of TTCP (UK, CAN, AUS, NZ).
	Summarize and focus on common themes (synthesis group).

Working Group (WG) Issues and Output:

WG 1 - CBP and the QDR (Chair: Chris Lamb)

Process used to conduct the QDR (top level)

Limitations encountered

How CBP was used to support QDR decision-making

Output: Suggestions for next QDR

Process (to include the value of interagency/coalition participation)

Analytical needs

Data support

WG 2 - Improving the CBP Process: Strategy to Joint Concepts to JCIDS/EPP (Chair: Joe Bonnet)

Current process, how strategy impacts the defining and developing of joint capabilities, the role of JCAs, JOpsC, JOCs, JFCs, and JICs when conducting strategic analysis, use of analytic agenda, and linkage of JCIDS to the EPP

Service interdependency considerations

Output

Assessment of how well the current process meets the concepts of CBP

Suggestions on how to:

Improve the process, including phenomenological understandings, analytic methodologies and tools, and data

Provide better analytical support

Characteristics of a good analysis (of a Capabilities Based Analysis?)

WG 3 – Improving the CBP Process: JCIDS to Acquisition (Chair: Mike Novak)

Current connection of JCIDS to the acquisition process

How analysis is used to help resolve issues in this area, and examples of good analysis

Output: Suggestions to improve

Process (role of CBP)

Analytical and data support

WG 4 – CBP Support to Strategic Decisions Across Domains (Chair: Kirk Yost)

Current methods for deducing capabilities, needs, and risk tolerances into recommended changes among domains

CBP constructs to deal with the apportionment of forces problem

Methods used to translate capabilities, needs, and risk tolerances into recommended changes among domains (e.g. VFT, portfolio analysis,...)

Comparison of DoD approaches to similar allied constructs

Output

Guidance from CBP we need but are not getting

How CBP results should influence strategic guidance

Assessment of analytical tools and data available to support process

WG 5 – CBP Support to Decisions within a Domain (Chair: Dave Markowitz)

Use of risk within mission and functional areas (irregular, catastrophic, conventional, and disruptive)

Quantitative and qualitative metrics for measuring risk

Incorporation of cost or resources into capability evaluation

Analytical tools requirements and comparison of DoD-level constructs and approaches to methodologies used by our allies and/or the Services

Analysis approaches for doing trades within mission areas

Output

Definition of mission areas

Summary of analysis approaches

Identify limitations in tools and data; and suggest ways to improve

WG 6 – CBP and Adaptive Planning (Chair: Tim Hoffman)

Current program for implementing Adaptive Planning, to include needed standards, definitions, techniques, and approaches

Process and analytical support tools used or needed

Relationship between Adaptive Planning, DRRS, JC2 and GFM and potential changes to improve required or anticipated interactions

Examples of successful adaptive planning applications

Training/skills needed for effective Adaptive Planning

Output: Suggestions to improve the

Process

Analytical and data support

Synthesis Working Group (Chair: Stu Starr, FS)

5. Agenda

A review of CBP basics will be offered on Monday as an option for any interested Workshop attendee. The first full day (Tuesday) will consist of plenary sessions. A wide range of community components will present their views on CBP and risk—how the recent efforts in the community have adapted and what more they need from the process.

Please follow this link for a complete agenda.

6. Attendees

Attendance will be controlled via invitation and limited to 150-200. Attendees will include invited experts from OSD, all Services, the Joint Staff, Federally Funded Research and Development Centers, operational commands, DoD contractors, analysts from other government departments, allied nations’ officials involved in CBP, commercial firms, and academia. Workshop chairs will control membership of their sessions in conjunction with the organizing committee. We expect attendees from the TTCP committees representing UK, AS, CA and perhaps NZ.

7. Products

There will be up to three specific products generated from this workshop:

	An executive summary addressing the findings, conclusions, and recommendations
	A proceedings document containing the summaries of all sessions and copies of appropriate briefing slides and presentations
	A PHALANX article
	A briefing to the MORS Sponsors and to a special session at the 74th MORS Symposium

8. Planning and Organizing Committee

General Chairs: Tom Allen, FS, Jim Bexfield, FS
MORS Advisors: Jim Bexfield, FS, LTC Bob Larsen
OSD/Policy Representative: COL Pat Kelly
OSD/AT&L, Kristen Baldwin
Air Force Representative: Cliff Tompkins
Technical Advisors: Lisa Disbrow, Raleigh Durham
Allies: Dr. Ben Taylor (UK)
Bulldog: Niki Goerger
Synthesis Group: Stu Starr, FS
Assistants: Harry Lewis, Mark Reid

9. Administration

MORS POC: Ms. Natalie Kelly, MORS, 1703 N. Beauregard St, Suite 450, Alexandria, VA 22311

Dates: 4-6 Apr 2006 (CBP Basics Tutorial at BAH on 3 April from 1330-1700)

Location: Booz Allen Hamilton, 8283 Greensboro Drive, McLean, VA 22102

Conference Fee: US Federal Government $310 and $545 for all others; Plenary (1 day only) Government $160; Non-Government $280

Attendance: 150-200 by invitation

Classification: Highest classification level for this workshop will be SECRET.

Please ensure proper diligence in having classified briefs approved for dissemination to an audience that includes cleared foreign nationals associated with TTCP (UK, AS, CA, NZ) and defense contractors.

International attendees will forward visit authorization requests (VARs) and have their briefings approved for foreign dissemination using their own national foreign clearance procedures.

10. Capability-Based Planning Terminology.

CBP terminology was developed during the October 2004 MORS CBP workshop and approved by the CJCS (ref: CJCSM 3500.04C). These accepted definitions (listed below) will provide a common basis for CBP II deliberations and recommendations. Critique of this terminology is not an objective of the workshop.

Capability: The ability to achieve a desired effect under specified standards and conditions through combinations of means and ways to perform a set of tasks.

Task: An action or activity (derived from an analysis of the mission and concept of operations) assigned to an individual or organization to provide a capability.

Standard: Quantitative or qualitative measures for [specifying] the levels of performance of a task.

Condition: Variable of the operational environment including scenario that affects task performance.

CONOPS: The overall picture and broad flow of tasks assigned to subordinates/supporting entities within a plan by which a commander maps capabilities to effects to accomplish the mission for a specific scenario.

Effect: A change to a condition, behavior, or degree of freedom.

Endstate: The set of conditions, behaviors, and freedoms that defines achievement of the commander’s mission.

Mission: The purpose (objectives and endstate) and tasks assigned to a commander.

Measure: Provides the basis for describing varying levels of task performance.

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