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Analytic Tools for Deterrence and
Policy Assessment

Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory
5-7 February 2008

Dear Colleague:

The Military Operations Research Society has organized a workshop entitled "Analytic Tools for Deterrence and Policy Assessment,” to be held at the Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Kossiakoff Center, Laurel, MD 20723, 5-7 February 2008 . There will be an optional Tutorial Session on Monday, 4 February, that potentially will address Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept and other applications of OR techniques to deterrence and policy challenges. The Tutorial is free to all those who attend the Workshop.

The purpose of this workshop is to assist the defense community in understanding the evolving role of analytic tools (operations research, social science, etc.) in deterrence and policy analysis. The analytic processes used for Assurance/Dissuasion/Deterrence (ADD), theater security cooperation (TSC) and policy assessment have changed little since the Cold War, when defense analysts focused on mutual deterrence (primarily via threat of cost imposition) between two nuclear-armed adversaries. Since deterrence proved successful, and bi-polar competition remained relatively stable for decades, each government began to believe that it understood the other's values and motives. This understanding was mostly illusory, as shown by recent studies of the Cuban missile crisis.

Today, we are faced with different types of ADD and policy analysis. Our actions and policies target, or indirectly affect, entities that may or may not be legitimate governments, may or may not be conventional military powers, and may or may not share our cultural norms. The world is now a multi-polar environment, where our objectives against one player may be achieved or thwarted by our actions against another. Our deterrent actions include not only threats of cost imposition, but also threats of benefit denial and incentives for restraint. The effects of actions propagate through other players whose strategic interests are differently aligned, making the net effects difficult to predict beforehand or measure afterwards.

Rather than planning defeat campaigns and assuming they will assure, deter, and dissuade, we must now specifically plan to assure, deter, and dissuade. This workshop will examine new approaches to decision analysis to aid in such strategic-level planning. Areas the workshop will explore include:

  • Actors' decision calculus, actors' decision-making processes, and other factors that influence decision-making (e.g., psychological, affective, etc.).
  • Assessing and tracking the efficacy of ADD, TSC and policy actions, both individually and as a grand strategy (to include implications of real-world constraints, direct and indirect effects).
  • Representing uncertainty in assessments.
  • Characterizing the ripple effects of actions through the multi-polar world.

The overall objective of the meeting is to examine the analytic processes involved in the assessing activities (ADD, TSC, policy) used to influence and shape the strategic landscape. The specific meeting objectives include:

  • A better articulation of the analytic challenge.
  • Enhanced understanding of current practices and perceived "state-of-the-art."
  • Identification of where practices fall short.
  • Identification of potential solutions to shortfalls and areas for further research.
  • An invigoration of the analytic community to address the challenges.

You are invited to apply to participate in this special meeting. Attendance will be limited by the space available. A specific number of slots will be reserved for issue leaders, Working Group chairs, and Synthesis Group members. Other participants will be selected using a combination of the criteria below:

  • Distribution across issue areas,
  • Distribution across the segments of the OR community, and
  • Specific experience in framing issues for analysis.

An application form to attend the workshop is enclosed. Registration fees are: Entire Workshop (5-7 February 2008, including optional tutorial on 4 February) – US Federal Government – Member - $575; Non-Member - $640. Non-US Government – Member - $675; -- Non-Member - $750.

The cost of lunch is $15.00 per day. Please include lunch fees with your registration fee if you want lunch.

We have reserved a block of rooms at the Sheraton Columbia Hotel, 10207 Wincopin Circle, Columbia, MD 21044. Rooms in the MORS block are $119 + tax. To make a reservation, please call the hotel at 410/730-3900 and identify yourself as being with the Military Operations Research Society to insure that you get the MORS rate. Or make your reservation online at http://www.starwoodmeeting.com/StarGroupsWeb/res?id=0710069397&key=90123 .

Presentations : If you make a presentation, you need to fill out a Disclosure Form (Form 712 AU or BU) and submit it to the MORS office. A Disclosure Form is attached or may be downloaded off the web at www.mors.org. All presentations must be Unclassified and Approved for Public Release.

For more information about this workshop, you can visit the MORS web site at “ www.mors.org” or contact the MORS office by phone at (703) 933-9070, by FAX at (703) 933-9066, or email at morsoffice@mors.org.

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Last modified: November 12, 2007