77th MORSS
US Army Command and General Staff College
Fort Leavenworth, KS
16-18 June 2009
Composite Group F
Strategic Operations
WG 29, WG 30, WG 31, WG 32, WG 33
WG 29 – Modeling, Simulation, and Wargaming
CHAIR:
Jeff Tkacheff, Marine Corps Operations Analysis Division, 703-784-0429, jeffrey.tkacheff@usmc.mil
CO-CHAIRS:
Adam Martin, Marine Corps Operations Analysis Division, 703-432-8018, adam.martin@usmc.mil
Ted Roofner, Marine Corps Operations Analysis Division, 703-784-0435, ted.roofner@usmc.mil
Deborah Ray, US Army Manpower Analysis Agency, 703-805-4235, deborah-ray@us.army.mil
Curtis Blaise, Naval Postgraduate School, 831-656-3215, cblais@nps.navy.mil
Danny Champion, TRAC WSMR, 505-678-2763, danny.c.champion@us.army.mil
ADVISOR:
Daniel F Purcell, Marine Corps Operations Analysis Division, 703-784-0433, daniel.purcell@usmc.mil
Modeling, Simulation, and Wargaming encompass a broad range of techniques commonly employed by the military operations research community, thus Working Group 29 (WG 29) embodies this year’s theme “Responding Globally, Leading Analytically.” WG-29 presentations should highlight the application of the various disciplines that come into play such as: computer programming in building simulations, statistical analysis in analyzing the output data, and subject matter expertise in assessing the degree of realism. Special emphasis should be placed on recent work that provides quantitative results to decision-makers and work that demonstrates the use of innovative techniques to tackle today’s tough problems that GWOT and Homeland Security represent. Our goal is to present a diverse mix of interesting analyses that cover a variety of operational issues and analytic techniques across the full spectrum of modeling, simulation and wargaming. We seek papers that discuss the application of sound OR techniques from the joint strategic level down to system engineering level issues. Papers can be completed work or works-in-progress.
WG 30 - Operational Environment – Factors, Interactions, and Impacts
CHAIR:
Dr. Richard Shirkey, Army Research Laboratory (ARL) , 575-678-5470, richard.shirkey@us.army.mil
CO-CHAIRS:
Matthew Barry, ANL, 630-252-8485, mbarry@anl.gov
Jeffrey A. Burkhalter, ERDC, 217-373-4462, J effrey.a.burkhalter@usace.army.mil
Dr. John R. Hummel, ANL, 630-252-7189 , jhummel@anl.gov
Victoria D. Moore, ERDC, 601-634-4636, victoria.d.moore@erdc.usace.army.mil
Col C. Reid Nichols, USMC Reserve, MIRC, 410-465-8587, rnichols@ccs.nrl.navy.mil
Dr. Joyce A. Nagle, ERDC, 603-646-4161, Joyce.A.Nagle@erdc.usace.army.mil
Stephen Quigley, AFRL/RVBXR , 781-377-9666 , Stephen.Quigley@hanscom.af.mil
Dr. Carrie Root, Consultant NAVAIR PMA-205/264, 202-841-8841, carriek9@aol.com
ADVISOR:
Dr. Donna W. Blake, AER, 757-484-2277 , dblake@aer.com
Working Group 30 (WG 30) provides a forum for discussions of the environment’s role in the full spectrum of military operations from warfighting to non-adversarial crisis response (e.g., humanitarian assistance/disaster relief). The operational environment includes factors that are natural (atmosphere, ocean, space and terrain), human-constructed (physical infrastructure), and abstract (political, social, cultural, and economic). The focus of WG 30 is the synergistic interactions of these factors as they impact military operations, including systems and the warfighter. The broad scope of our interests include: quantitative assessments of the impact of the environment on military operations; the technology of environmental sensing, data fusion, and exploitation; and concepts for the architecture and operation of environmental support of the warfighter.
The Operational Environment has always played a critical role in military operations, both in planning and execution. To keep pace with new tactics and military systems development, improved knowledge on the rapidly changing operational environment is required to support testing and operational assessments, personnel training, planning, and analysis. Technological advancements in the combination of live, virtual, and constructive training will also continue to greatly enhance the capabilities of our warfighters. Similarly, the accurate depiction of the operational environment is becoming an aspect of Dominant Battlespace Awareness (DBA). The Environmental DBA will require new paradigms for data collection, processing and distribution of information, and exploitation in real time for tactical advantage.
In keeping with Joint Vision 2020’s three critical aspects: global interests, d iffused technology, and adaptive enemies, and in conjunction with the persistence of the asymmetric threat and this year’s conference theme, “Responding Globally, Leading Analytically,” WG-30 solicits thought-provoking presentations of studies, research and development, and experiments. These presentations include interesting and innovative techniques dealing with less traditional military operations (e.g., non-conventional warfighting, peacekeeping, humanitarian assistance/disaster relief), homeland security and defense, counterterrorism, emergency management, and disaster relief.
This WG invites you to submit studies, ongoing or complete, relevant to the operational environment topics described above, particularly as they relate to national security. Please note that all presentations and discussions at the 77th MORS Symposium must be kept to the Secret level or below.
WG 31 – Computing Advances in Military Operations Research
CHAIR:
Mary McDonald, Naval Postgraduate School, (703) 670-2274, mlmcdona@nps.edu
CO-CHAIRS:
Curtis Blais, Naval Postgraduate School, (831) 656-3215, clblais@nps.edu
Jeffery Dixon, The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, (240) 228-3153 (Washington), (443) 778-3153 (Baltimore), jeffery.dixon@jhuapl.edu
Lt Col William David Wells, PhD, CMSP, United States Air Force Academy, (719) 333-8631, david.wells@usafa.edu
Meredith Schutt, Lockheed Martin Center for Innovation, (757) 935-9355, meredith.schutt@lmco.com
Trey Vecera, The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, (443) 778-0536, trey.vecera@jhuapl.edu
Mitchell Kerman, Lockheed Martin MS2, (856) 638-7223, mitchell.c.kerman@lmco.com
ADVISOR:
Otis Brooks, The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, (240) 228-5842, otis.brooks@jhuapl.edu
This year's theme for the 77th Military Operations Research Society Symposium (MORSS), “Responding Globally, Leading Analytically,” will provide the opportunity to revisit potential analytical and operational uses of existing and emerging computer hardware/software technologies and computational methodologies that support the expanding needs and endeavors of Operations Research. MORSS Working Group 31 (WG 31), Computing Advances in Military Operations Research, remains focused on new and innovative computational capabilities and methodologies that can improve the ability of military analysts to provide expanded assessments and recommendations to decision makers. This working group seeks to focus on improving the computing infrastructure, by capturing enhanced development and utilization of techniques and innovative thinking, which will equip decision makers with new ways to handle the myriad complex decisions confronting them on a daily basis. To that end, WG 31 is looking for papers and presentations that delve into advances, concepts, methodologies, and techniques that support analysis of the multitude of issues facing the US military and homeland defense across its mission set. WG 31 desires to understand computing advances that address these and other modern day issues, integrating past and current tools from multiple disciplines, and providing a glimpse into the visionary thinking to impart analytical recommendations to current and future issues. The following are some examples (not all-inclusive): computing advances which support the Global Information Grid (GIG) in an operational sense; new or improved analytical tools and novel approaches to new problems; advances in distributed interactive simulations, federations, and architectures; federation middleware; optimal model fidelity in federations; rapid scenario generation techniques to support broad exploratory analysis; parallel computing including parallel algorithms, programming methods, and taxonomies that enables parallel computing systems; databases and their manipulation; high-dimensional data mining/analysis; modeling of terrain, weather, and other environmental effects pertinent to simulations; data fusion; graphical user interfaces, iconic languages and related human-machine interface issues; modeling advancements in areas such as virtual reality processes and systems; and complex adaptive systems, artificial intelligence, and machine learning techniques as they pertain to Military Operations Research.
WG 31 seeks to benefit the following applications with insights gained from computing advances (not all-inclusive): modeling and analysis of counter-proliferation, counter-terrorism, and counter-insurgency related scenarios, including information warfare; combat survivability analysis; modeling, simulation, and analysis of Command, Control, Communication, and Computer (C4) systems; modeling stability, security, transition and reconstruction operations; consequence management and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief; course of action analysis, especially considering effects on non-combatants; mission area analysis; mission needs analysis; embedded training (transition from mission planning and rehearsal tools to real C4 linkages); management and analysis of large datasets; stochastic search and ptimization; and system identification. WG 31 is interested in concepts under development and research as well as proven applications and techniques utilized in emerging areas of interest. We seek presentations which address successes across the Range of Military Operations (ROMO).
WG 32 – Warfighter Performance & Social Science Methods
CHAIR:
Yuna Huh Wong, PhD, SAIC, 703-699-1718, yuna.wong.ctr@osd.mil
CO-CHAIRS:
James Crutchfield, Lockheed Martin, 407-306-4065, james.h.crutchfield.jr@lmco.com
Debbie Duong, SAIC, 703-699-2341, debbie.duong.ctr@osd.mil
Matthew A. Hanson, IDA, 703-599-7785, mhanson@ida.org
Rafael E. Matos, WBB Consulting, 703-448-6081 x108, rmatos@wbbinc.com
Danielle Miller, SAIC, 703-699-1714, danielle.miller.ctr@osd.mil
ADVISOR:
Darryl Easler, Lockheed Martin Simulation, Training & Support, 407-306-3368, darryl.l.easler@lmco.com
Working Group 32 (WG 32) is an interdisciplinary working group interested in the application of social science to defense and national security challenges. WG 32 is primarily interested in the application of social science to three main areas: warfighter performance, national security challenges, and computational social science. Work on warfighter performance may be thought of as the application of social science to “blue” (US) forces, while analysis of national security challenges represent the application of social science to “red” (adversary) or “green” (neutral) actors. Lastly, computational social science is the intersection of modeling & simulation (M&S) and social phenomena.
1. Warfighter performance
Traditionally, military operations research has utilized conventional operations research techniques, where the system being analyzed is under control and results can be determined precisely. However, because the most important part of any system is the human operator, it is crucial that today’s analysts incorporate human factors and human performance variability into their analyses. On the modern battlefield, warfighters must perform the primary tasks of movement, target acquisition and engagement, and communication. Additionally, they must sense a constellation of cues in their combat environment, perceive the tactical relevance of these combat cues as they pertain to their particular situation, and then make sound decisions to ensure mission success. Many cognitive factors and psychological influences such as leadership, morale, esprit de corps, and “the fog of war” will have a profound effect on the performance of these individuals and combat units. Representing and incorporating these factors adequately into models, simulations, and studies are sizeable challenges. Because of the extreme variability of the warfighter’s performance and behavior on the modern battlefield, social science investigators may not be able to perform standard parametric or non-parametric analyses of the available data and must develop new tools to assist them. This working group examines these innovative methods and their application to military analyses. Topics that fall under this area of interest include:
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Activities and analyses that examine warfighter performance, individual and group behavior, or our armed services’ policy and doctrine through the lenses of operations research, social, and behavioral sciences;
Multidisciplinary approaches to defining and understanding individual and small unit combat performance;
Studies using tools applied to any of the social and behavioral elements that affect warfighter performance;
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Symposia, games, experiments, or programs in development that involve warfighter performance and social science methodologies, emphasizing the influence of social and behavioral elements to legacy analytical methods.
2. National security challenges
The next area of interest for WG 32 is the application of social science methodology to national security challenges that require the examination of adversary or population behaviors. The recent and ongoing US involvement in challenges such as counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, security, stability, reconstruction, and other non-traditional challenges has increased interest in social science and prompted investments to leverage these disciplines in these areas. This renewed interest in social science is also often aimed at the operational and tactical levels, whereas traditional Department of Defense (DoD) use of social science for national security issues has tended to be at the strategic (national and international) level. Although there is much work going on in all these areas, the goal of WG 32 is to promote the application of sound social science methodology to these topics. Example topics that fall under this area of interest might include:
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Econometric analysis of the effects of reconstruction funds on violence in Iraq;
Ethnography of local populations in Afghanistan;
Qualitative case studies on the effects of theater security cooperation;
Social network analysis of terrorist organizations;
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Implications of the literature on economic development for assumptions behind security, stability, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) models and tools.
3. Computational social science
The third area of interest to WG 32 is computational social science. WG 32 is interested in the application of models and simulation techniques to represent social processes that affect defense and national security decision making. Potential techniques include but are not limited to agent-based and systems dynamics models. The rise of agent-based modeling in particular, with its attractiveness for depicting emergent social phenomena and ability to link levels of analysis, makes it an area of natural interest for the MORS community. Topics under this area might include:
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Studies that use agent-based or systems dynamics models to support resource allocation for the Department of Defense;
Overview of a population model that is being used to support an SSTR wargame;
A study design that incorporates hybrid modeling techniques;
Discussion of verification, validation, and accreditation (VV&A) standards for agent-based models;
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Proposed behavioral rules for non-combatant crowd behavior in high-resolution urban operations models.
WG 32 encourages you to submit presentations and papers relevant to the areas outlined above. The submission may be finished work, work in progress, or ideas and concepts. Note that all presentations and discussions must be kept at the Secret level or lower. We look forward to hearing from you!
WG 33 – Analytical Rigor in Experimentation
CHAIR:
Steve Notarnicola, Lockheed Martin Center for Innovation, 757-935-9503, steve.notarnicola@lmco.com
CO-CHAIRS:
Suzanne DeLong, LTC, Department of Systems Engineering, United States Military Academy, 845-938-3573 Suzanne.delong@usma.edu
Paul Fall, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), 256-864-8395, fallp@saic.com
Scott Hamilton, AFC2ISRC/AFEO, 757-225-2107 scott.hamilton.ctr@langley.af.mil
Seth Howell, PhD, Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization, seth.howell@jieddo.dod.mil
Kemp Littlefield, Lockheed Martin Center for Innovation, 757-935-9507, kemp.littlefield@lmco.com
ADVISOR:
Chris Herstrom, Raytheon Missile Systems, 757-337-8817, chris.herstrom@raytheon.com
The purpose of the Analytical Rigor in Experimentation Working Group (WG) is to provide an opportunity for military and civilian operations research analysts to examine topics, methodologies, analyses, and innovations pertinent to all aspects of designing, executing, and reporting of Experimentation in the Department of Defense (DOD) and other government agencies. The experimentation process provides an ideal opportunity to examine the risks inherent in military and government operations in both the uncertain present and future temporal domains. The theme for this year's Symposium is “Responding Globally, Leading Analytically.” During the 77th MORSS, WG 33 will place a particular emphasis on rigor in analytical processes and experimentation efforts in the military, government, political science, behavioral science, systems engineering, and other related disciplines. We will also continue to explore recurrent experimentation analysis issues. All completed or in-progress studies/topics that affect Experimentation Analyses, Processes and Methodologies, to include Modeling and Simulation (M&S) support to experimentation are welcome. Additionally, the Analytical Rigor in Experimentation Working Group continues to be the sponsor for the MORS Experimentation Community of Practice (COP), a group that continues to break new ground in experimentation issues and looks for synergy and consistency across government, industry and academia. Please join us at the 77th MORS Symposium.
Composite Group A • Composite Group B • Composite Group C
Composite Group D • Composite Group E • Composite Group F