Presenters
All presenters are required to submit a MORS Disclosure Form 712
Deadline: 22 February 2010
Contractor 712A
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Government 712B
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Purpose
a. Problem Statement: How can we make the Analytic Agenda agile enough to respond effectively to the analytical needs of leadership within the Department of Defense and other organizations?
b. This workshop will describe a way ahead for the Analytic Agenda by:
1. Developing recommendations for improving Analytic Agenda processes and products, and
2. Expanding the understanding of Analytic Agenda products and processes for workshop participants and the community of Analytic Agenda participants and customers.
Background
a. Since it was initiated in 2002 the Department of Defense (DoD) Analytic Agenda has become the standard for strategic analysis within the Department and has continued to evolve to meet the changing demands and associated analytic requirements. Over that period the Analytic Agenda has evolved in several significant ways. The organizations using the Analytic Agenda and the way in which it is used have grown continually. The methods and tools associated with the Analytic Agenda have expanded to address concerns associated with Irregular Warfare (IW), Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Homeland Defense (HLD), and joint force mix analysis. Further, the latest generation of Defense Planning Scenarios is releasable to key allies and the department is exploring ways to better share data with industry.
b. Looking forward, we can expect the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) to reshape national security strategy. Consequently, the Analytic Agenda will need to further evolve to address the issues and challenges of the new strategy. This workshop is a timely way to bring the analytical community together to address these changes.
Sponsor Interest
a. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (OSD (CAPE)) and the Joint Staff will co-sponsor this workshop and provide program chairs.
Approach
a. Pre-conference sessions and tutorials. The chair for these pre-conference tutorials is Mr. Mike Wilmer (BAH). The tutorials will cover the following areas.
1. Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy (OSD (Policy)) and the Defense Planning Scenarios (DPS).
2. Overview of the Joint Staff Role in the Analytic Agenda and Multi-Service Force Deployment Data.
3. Overview of the role of OSD (CAPE) in the Analytic Agenda and Future Year Analytic Baselines.
4. Joint Data Support Overview (JDS) and discussion of Data Management and Tools.
5. Overview of OSD Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (OSD(AT&L)) and the Development Planning Process.
b. Opening plenary.
1. The workshop will open with a plenary session comprised of a series of discussion panels including participants in and customers of the Analytic Agenda. CAPT Tom Neal (USN N81) will chair this plenary session. The three discussion panels will include the following participants:
a. Analytic Agenda leads: Joint Staff J8, OUSD (Policy), OSD(CAPE).
b. The Services and US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM).
c. Other Combatant Commands and representatives from the DoD communities using the Analytic Agenda (e.g. training, acquisition, test and evaluation, experimentation, planning).
2. The purpose of the discussion panels is to challenge workshop participants to explore potential areas for improvement in the Analytic Agenda. With this purpose in mind, each panel consists of a short statement by each panel member either refuting or supporting the appropriate assertion given below and providing recommendations to preserve, remove, or amend associated elements of the Analytic Agenda.
a. Analytic Agenda Leads: The Analytic Agenda adequately represents the characteristics of hybrid warfare and enables effective programmatic and force structure decisions within that context.
b. Service Panel: Current Analytic Agenda processes and scenarios adequately capture the full range of missions (capabilities) and demands (capacities) for which my service must be prepared to respond.
c. COCOM/DoD Communities Panel: Analytic Agenda products satisfy the analytical requirements of my organization. (E.g., these products accurately reflect the operational concepts and assumptions of my organization and leadership.)
c. Analytic Agenda “Deep Dives.”
1. From the end of opening plenary through mid-day Wednesday, working groups will conduct an end-to-end review of four major areas of concentration within the Analytic Agenda. Topics, workgroup leads, and responsibilities are as follows.
a. Warfight. COL Steven Charbonneau (JS J8 Warfighting Analysis Division)
b. SSSP/ISP/Force Structure analysis. Mr. John Robinson (G8).
c. Homeland Defense. TBD.
d. Irregular Warfare. Lt Col Kirsten Messer (OSD(CAPE))
2. These working groups will develop recommendations for changes to improve the Analytic Agenda to address shortcomings in its processes and products. The questions below provide a starting point for the deliberations of the working groups. These questions are not exhaustive and not intended to constrain the efforts of the working groups.
a. Defense Planning Scenarios.
i. What risks to national strategy were omitted from assessment when a single challenge was selected for development into a Multi-Service Force Deployment Document (MSFD)? How can the Analytic Agenda identify and mitigate those risks?
ii. What is good about the current DPS development process that should be retained in an improved process
b. MSFD.
i. Were there strategy gaps in the Defense Planning Scenarios that had to be addressed in development of an MSFD or which could not be addressed in the MSFD development? What changes to the Analytic Agenda can identify and prevent such gaps?
ii. How should the MSFD development process and the product of this process evolve?
c. Analytical Baselines.
i. How can we develop analytical baselines more responsively?
ii. Was critical data missing from supporting documentation? How do we prevent the omission of this data in future Analytic Agenda efforts?
iii. What was the review process and was it adequate? If the review process was inadequate, in what way did it fall short and how could this be prevented in future analytical baseline development?
iv. Did the excursions to the Analytical Baseline address critical questions raised during the development of the associated DPS(s) or MSFD(s)?
v. Was the Analytic Baseline used and useful? If not, why not and what should be changed?
d. Analytic Agenda Customers. What limits the utility of the Analytic Agenda?
e. Other.
i. How do we better integrate the DoD Analytic Agenda with other US government agencies and allies?
ii. What are the points of overlap between the four major areas of concentration within the Analytic Agenda (Warfight, SSSP/ISP/Force Structure, HLD, IW), and how can we exploit those areas to explore issues related to hybrid warfare?
iii. Are the differences between the areas of concentration with respect to Analytic Agenda products, methods, and tools intrinsic to those areas or artifacts of the Analytic Agenda? Can we minimize these differences to achieve synergies?
d. Special topics. From noon Wednesday to noon Thursday, conference attendees will have the opportunity to participate in four additional working groups focused on special topics of interest within the Analytic Agenda. General descriptions of these special sessions are given below, along with some potential questions of interest with respect to the topic area and the Analytic Agenda as well as names of chairs and co-chairs for each topic area.
1. Data and Tools Management; Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A).
a. Chair: Mike Bailey; co-chair TBD.
b. Potential question(s).
i. How can JDS improve support to the Analytic Agenda and DoD?
ii. How do we accomplish rigorous VV&A for social models, and who accomplishes that effort?
2. Analysis of Command and Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR); Information/Influence Operations (IO); and Electronic Warfare.
a. Chair: Mr. Norm Yarbrough (OSD NII).
b. Co-Chair: Mr. Josef Seidl (AF/A9)
c. Potential question(s).
i. Is our level of understanding of C4ISR capabilities and effects sufficient to allow effective analysis of their effects on the tactical, operational, and strategic environments? If not, in what way can the Analytic Agenda advance that understanding?
ii. How can studies better incorporate these capabilities and their effects into analysis?
3. Development Planning.
a. Chair: Mr. Peter Lierni (OSD (AT&L)).
b. Potential question(s).
i. How can the Analytic Agenda support early development of new acquisition programs?
ii. How would consideration of new capabilities in development affect Analytic Agenda processes?
4. Interagency Collaboration.
a. Chair: Dr. Mary Cerniglia-Mosher (AF/A9)
b. Potential question(s):
i. How can the Analytic Agenda processes and products more effectively incorporate interagency participation and expertise?
ii. Is it necessary and/or possible to generate an Analytic Agenda dedicated to interagency needs and concerns?
e. The workshop also includes a Synthesis Group who will integrate insights across the other working groups and support the subsequent development of overall workshop recommendations. Ms. Annie Patenaude (BAH) will chair the Synthesis Working Group.
f. Closing plenary. A plenary session Thursday afternoon will conclude the conference at which working groups and the Synthesis Group will share insights from the research presented. These final presentations should address at least the following issues related to the fundamental goals of the workshop.
1. Challenges identified by the workgroup that impact the potential/capability for the Analytic Agenda to meet the needs of the DoD.
2. Any potential solutions to those challenges identified by the workgroup.
3. Descriptions of process and/or product improvements incorporating the identified solutions.
g. Wrap-up. Friday morning, workgroup leaders will meet for a wrap up session and formalize responsibilities to document the conference and draft the final report. This will take place at the OSD CAPE Simulation & Analysis Center Conference Room, 1225 S. Clark St., Suite 300, Arlington, VA 22202, 0900-1200.
Workshop Planning and Workgroup Chairs.
a. Proponents:
1. Mr. Jim Bexfield, FS (OSD PA&E) james.bexfield@osd.mil, 703-695-7945.
2. Ms. Lisa Disbrow, (VDJ8, JS J8) lisa.disbrow@js.pentagon.mil, 703-6959153.
b. Program Chairs:
1. Dr. Al Sweetser (OSD(CAPE)), wilmer.sweetser@osd.mil, 703-699-2351.
2. COL Steve Charbonneau (JS J8), steven.charbonneau@js.pentagon.mil, 703-697-8651.
c. Host Organization Representative: Ms. Thea Hill, NGC Heritage Conference Center, Thea.Hill@ngc.com, 703-633-2240
d. Administrative coordinator(s).
1. Krista L. Paternostro (Chief Executive Officer, MORS) krista@mors.org, 703-933-9075.
2. Colette A. Burgess (Meeting Planner, MORS) colette@mors.org, 703-933-9072.
e. MORS Bulldog: Dr. Royce Reiss royce.reiss.ctr@osd.mil, 703-699-1720.
f. Sponsor/Service Representatives.
1. Army: Mr. John Robertson, john.robertson@hqda.army.mil, 703-697-7187.
2. Navy: CAPT Tom Neal (USN N81), thomas.neal@navy.mil.
3. Air Force.
a. Dr. Mary Cerniglia-Mosher (AF/A9), mary.cernigliamosher@pentagon.af.mil, 703-588-8819.
b. Mr. Josef Seidl (AF/A9), josef.seidl@pentagon.af.mil, 703-588-8688.
4. Marines: Mr. Mike Bailey (MCCDC), Michael.Bailey@usmc.mil.
5. Joint Staff: COL Steven Charbonneau (JS J8), Steven.Charbonneau@js.pentagon.mil, 703-697-8651
6. OSD (CAPE): Dr. Al Sweetser (CAPE), wilmer.sweetser@osd.mil, 703-699-2351.
g. MORS Special Meetings Committee Chair: Ms. Renee Carlucci, renee.carlucci@us.army.mil.
Deliverables - Four products will be generated from the workshop.
a. An Executive Summary briefing will be presented to the sponsors at the JADM Steering Committee meeting subsequent to the workshop by the Synthesis Group chair, Ms. Annie Patenaude.. The summary will address the workshop objectives and recommendations. This will be in the form of a report and a scripted briefing that, for each work group, lists:
• Key issues among workshop participants
• Recommendations to improve areas of the Analytic Agenda.
b. A workshop report containing summaries of all sessions in the form of annotated briefings.
c. An article summarizing the meeting and its findings will be produced and submitted to PHALANX in time for the next deadline after the meeting.
d. A general session presentation will be made at the 78th MORSS.
Workshop Hotel
Holiday Inn Chantilly-Dulles Expo
335 Chantilly Shopping Center
Chantilly, VA 20151
Hotel Link
4803 Stonecroft Blvd.
Chantilly, Virginia
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