Reception, Staging, Onward Movement, and Integration (RSOI) in South Korea - Major Christopher W. Kirkman

This study was conducted to provide a proof of concept model, written in Visual SLAM (AweSim), which allows for stochastic analysis of the rail infrastructure during RSOI in South Korea. The basic objective was to determine the effectiveness of rail route 1 (RR1) to support movement of required Time Phased Force Deployment Data (TPFDD) during a time of crisis. Detailed analysis focuses on the throughput capability, rail car utilization, delays, and vulnerabilities.

Total Army Capital Budgeting (TACAB) Project - Ms. Linda Coblentz

The U.S. Army currently determines force structure resources mostly on the requirements for two simultaneous major theater wars (MTWs). However, due to the changing global climate, there is a need to put more emphasis on small-scale contingencies (SSCs) than is currently considered. The occurrence of SSCs are uncertain; so, to aid the Army in making force structure decisions, CAA will design and implement a stochastic mathematical optimization that will include the requirements for the MTWs and the probabilities associated with the SSCs.

Air Force Institute of Technology

A Methodology for Simulating the Joint Strike Fighter’s (JSF) Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) System - Captain Michael E. Malley, USAF

The Autonomic Logistics System Simulation (ALSim) was developed to provide decision makers a tool to make informed decisions regarding the Joint Strike Fighter’s (JSF) Autonomic Logistics System (ALS). The benefit to ALS is that it provides real-time maintenance information to ground maintenance crews, supply depots, and air planners to efficiently manage the availability of JSF aircraft. This thesis effort focuses on developing a methodology to model the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) component of ALS. The PHM component of JSF is what actually monitors the aircraft status.

To develop a PHM methodology to use in ALSim a neural network approach is used. Notional JSF prognostic signals were generated using an interactive Java application, which were then used to build and train a neural network. The neural network is trained to predict when a component is healthy and/or failing. The results of the neural network analysis are distributions of meaningful failure detection times and false alarm rates. The analysis presents a batching approach to train the neural network, and looks at the sensitivity of the results to batch size and the neural network classification rule used.

An Efficient Group Theoretic Tabu Search Approach to the Crew Scheduling Problem - Captain Todd E. Combs, USAF

The airline crew scheduling problem has been studied for over 30 years, with keen interest in the last decade. Up to today, little research effort has been given to metaheuristic solution methodologies such as tabu search. In addition, the Air Force has focused its analytic efforts on scheduling aircraft refueling with little attention paid to the crew component of the problem. This presentation outlines a group theoretic tabu search approach to solving the U.S. Air Force tanker crew scheduling problem.

Naval Postgraduate School

An Evaluation of the Hydra-7 Countermine Weapon System - Major Timothy A. Maxwell, USMC

The basic principle of Maneuver Warfare in the 21st century is the seamless integration of sea and land as maneuver space. Unfortunately, our inability to conduct countermine and counterobstacle operations in the littorals severely curtails our ability to conduct Amphibious Warfare, a key ingredient to maneuver. Hydra-7, a possible solution to this problem, is one of the most promising countermine weapons under development, but its final performance level will depend on the effectiveness of subcomponent technologies. These subcomponent technologies have yet to reach maturity and may not perform as well as desired. This thesis provides analysis procedures and models to predict Hydra-7 effectiveness for a broad range of possible performance values of subcomponent systems. The methodology will determine which of the subcomponent technologies is most critical to the final performance of Hydra-7.

Agent-Based Simulation of Military Operations Other Than War Small Unit Combat - Major Ronald F. A. Woodaman, USMC

A significant challenge to the Armed Forces today is the development of tactics, techniques, procedures, and equipment that will enable success in the small-scale combats that characterize Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW). This thesis develops an agent-based simulation methodology for modeling MOOTW combat scenarios. The methodology combines agent-based modeling with discrete event simulation in a software package called AgentKit. AgentKit is used to model a riot control problem for an experiment that pits two kinds of tactics against two different kinds of crowds. This simulation yields insights into the scenario modeled and demonstrates the usefulness of agent-based simulation for the exploration of tactical concepts in a MOOTW context.

Optimization of United States Marine Corps Officer Career Path Selection - Major Peter B. Baumgarten, USMC

The Marine Corps Manpower System is responsible for managing the Marine officer inventory. The system's primary objective is to maximize the Marine Corps' operational readiness through the assignment of officers to billets. While striving to fulfill billet requirements, the manpower system simultaneously develops the professional skills, or core competencies, that each officer must possess to be assigned to billets requiring more authority and responsibility. Therefore, officer careers (or career paths) must reflect a balance between fulfilling billet requirements and developing core competencies. Currently, Marine Corps manpower planners lack rigorous methods to assist them in understanding the effects of various personnel policy decisions on the average officer career path or the system's ability to meet future billet requirements. To assist these planners, this thesis presents an integer program, the Officer Career Path Selection (OCPS) model. The goal of OCPS is to assign officers to acceptable career paths in order to best meet billet requirements while satisfying, among others, core competency and tour length constraints. This thesis uses data from the Infantry Marine Occupational Specialty (MOS) to illustrate that outputs from OCPS provide useful information regarding the number of annual Infantry officer accessions and the effects of potential manpower policy decisions.

US Air Force Academy

Investment Portfolio Analysis - C1C Brian Mills & C1C Brian Hoose

The Air Force Academy’s Association of Graduates (AOG) is a non-profit organization providing services for Air Force Academy graduates and cadets. Like other pension plan/managed trust agencies, the AOG has a large pool of money currently invested in several major asset classes. The AOG approached our mentor, Professor Jennings, and requested an independent review of their investing strategy. The AOG posed the question; is it possible to continue investing conservatively, yet increase returns given defined levels of risk?

The goal of our project is to provide the client with a flexible, user-friendly system that creates and quickly evaluates the long-term performance of various asset allocation alternatives. We created an optimization model that provides initial asset allocations as input into a simulation model that forecasts the impacts of asset variability upon the overall return. Our optimization model will recommend an asset class mix that either maximizes returns given a comfortable level of risk or minimizes risk given a desired level of return. The simulation model will forecast the effects of various asset mixes and distribution policies.

Our final product will be the delivery of an integrated, user-friendly product to the client. Ultimately, our work will assist Professor Jennings, and the USAFA Management Department in their consults with DoD large fund managers.

Designing an Air Force Specialty Code Assignment Process - C1C James Mixon & C1C Peeter Meos

Each year, graduating non-rated seniors from the U.S. Air Force Academy are assigned one Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC) based on their class rank, preference selection, and Air Force requirements to fill for each AFSC. Cadets are rank-ordered one through the total number of non-rated cadets by a board process outside of the AFSC assignment process. The current system used by the Air Force Personnel Center (AFPC) inputs cadet rank, degree earned, and individual preferences into an optimization model that is constrained by Air Staff requirements for each AFSC. Our team was asked by the Academy's Cadet Personnel Office to automate the assignment process.

We have automated the system, eased input and data retrieval operations, added the flexibility to run multiple scenarios, and perform sensitivity analyses of feasible assignments. This report summarizes the revised process, and discusses the potential impact of this process upon future Air Force Accession management between ROTC, OTS, and the Air Force Academy.

SCHRIEVER 2001 - C1C Steve Wick & C1C Eric Zarybniski

As the world enters the 21^st century, the use of space assets to dominate tactical conflicts around the world becomes a viable option. Space based weapons as well as intelligence capabilities are predicted to strongly influence war fighters of the future. Neutralization and destruction of similar capabilities also becomes a major factor for military commanders. Budgetary constraints resulting from the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) must be responsive to the opportunities space brings to our national defense. The level to which space and anti-space assets assist military commanders has not been assessed. Schriever 2001 initiates a systematic assessment of the effect of space assets upon military operations. The QDR questions are; which space assets (if any) significantly effect the battlefield, and at what cost?

Schriever 2001 addresses these questions by analyzing space assets through a war game scenario of both limited and robust space and anti-space assets. The objectives for the Schriever 2001 are:

Explore the requirements for space control and space force application to support EAF, Joint and agency space needs.
Explore counters to advance adversary ISR and space capabilities.
Evaluate enemy COAs to deny US and allied space capabilities.

The scenario, set in the near future, allows analysts to determine to what extent space dominance will influence the outcome of future battles. Several Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) were utilized to examine the affect of space on a variety of war fighting tactics. While this information is valuable, game play resulted in scenarios that the game planners had not anticipated. One such case is that of an early kick off of the war by Red in response to aggressive military buildup in the region of interest by Blue. This scenario introduces the necessity of Blue to strike from long rages as opposed to using in theater assets.

Using the war-gaming program Thunder, we will evaluate this excursion of Schriever 2001. We will focus on discerning which measures of experimentation are significant and which factors have an effect on the result of the war game. Our continuing research focuses on the relative importance of space assets in repelling an unexpected attack. As stated by the Schriever 2001 game book, the theme of this project is “Global force protection in the presence of a major military and space power.” Our conclusions will assist the Schriever analysis team's evaluation of the impact of space in future operations.

US Naval Academy

Planning the Clearance of Sea-mines Detected by Minehunters - Midshipman 1/c Shaun Hayes

Data from two different mine-hunting sensors are fused to give the probability each mine-like objected detected is a mine. These probabilities along with the depth of the objects are then used to plan the clearance of the minefield. Two cases are considered: (1) the maximum width channel thatcan be cleared in a fixed amount of time and (2) the order objects are to be examined to minimize the time to clear the field.

US Coast Guard Academy

Selective Re-enlistment Bonus - Cadets 1/c Chester Passic, Andrew Behnke and Scott Ostrowski

The Coast Guard currently has a 14 million-dollar budget designated for Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (SRB). These bonuses have been targeted at specialties within the enlisted workforce that have critically low retention rates. It is widely believed that these bonuses have had a positive effect on retention within these critical specialties. However, the effects have never been measured or quantified. The purpose of this project is to quantify the effects of SRB’s on both reenlistment rates and reenlistment/extension lengths. These results will assist the Director of Personnel Management in effectively utilizing the limited SRB budget.

Component Repair Scheduling Optimization - Cadets 1/c Morgan Brown, Terry Staderman and Meredith Queen

The Aviation Repair and Supply Center component repair facilities often operate in a "response" mode. Repair actions are not always scheduled in advance, but are performed on a first come first served basis. The component repair facilities require a scheduling tool that considers repair time, order of repair actions, number of items to be repaired, internal (ARSC) cost of repair, external (Commercial or OGA facility) cost of repair, unit price, and ARSC repair capacity. This work develops a scheduling tool considering all previously mentioned material and a computer program in order to make the tool more user friendly.

General Detail - Cadets 1/c Hugo Goicoechea, Melissa Childers and Russell Hall

The Coast Guard divides enlisted personnel into three main categories: Assigned, Training (T), and Support Allowance (SA). The latter two comprise the General Detail (GenDet). In the mid-1990’s, the Office of Management & Budget (OMB) reduced the Coast Guard’s budget for GenDet from 21% to 15%. Since T requires ten percent, SA is left with only five percent with which to function. The purpose of this project is to quantify Coast Guard Support Allowance funding needs. Historical data is analyzed and the techniques employed to do this include regression and other statistical analysis. Regression proved to be a useful technique to uncover the relationships between Assigned billets and the six categories of SA, which are Transfers, Discipline, Medical, Separation, Miscellaneous, and En Route. These relationships serve as a basis for predicting future SA needs.

US Military Academy

Individual Soldier Situational Awareness Project - CDT Simon McKenzie

Define situational awareness information requirements for the individual soldier. Measure the degree to which these requirements are satisfied by current or future soldier systems designed to enhance the soldier’s situational awareness. A key component of the soldier’s situational awareness is the soldier’s ability to cognitively process the information that is presented to him. Therefore, the measurement must not only assess whether or not the information is provided, but must also gauge how well the information is presented to the soldier. We expect to present recommendations to Project Manager-Soldier Systems about how future soldier systems might best provide information to the individual soldier.

Brigade Combat Team Headquarters Design - CDT Howard Titzel

The proposed Interim Brigade Combat Team (IBCT) Headquarters is designed much like every other headquarters in the Army. However, this headquarters design does not cater to the introduction of new technology and equipment. There are many positions that are redundant throughout higher and lower echelons of the Army. The major functions of the headquarters are being performed by two or more staff officers, making many positions useless and obsolete. With the integration of new technology the new IBCT headquarters will require fewer people to perform the same functions. New positions must be created based on the generalized functions of the IBCT headquarters. Our deign team plans to create a headquarters catered to the flow of information that moves towards a wireless, weightless, paperless, and signatureless solution to the problem of the antiquated headquarters

structure.

Last Updated 26 April 2001