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76th MORSS
United States Coast Guard Academy
10-12 June 2008
Composite Group A
Strategic and Defense
WG 1: Strategic Operations
CHAIR: Dr. Lalit Yudhbir, Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., (703) 399-7611, lyudhbir@spa.com
CO-CHAIR: Dr. Gene Schroeder, USSTRATCOM, (402) 232-5348, schroedg@stratcom.mil
ADVISOR: Karen Phipps, USSTRATCOM , (402) 232-7266, phippsk@stratcom.mil
The term “strategic operations” has evolved to include swift and decisive alteration of an adversary’s course of action using offensive (nuclear and/or conventional weapons) and/or defensive means, as part of either a traditional military campaign or a flare-up. Analysis should consider: the conduct of such conflicts, choosing the right numbers and types of weapons and payloads, target characteristics (hardness geographic spread, mobility, size, etc.) force sufficiency, survivability, CONOPS, and credibility.
Operations research has a played and will continue to play a significant role in this problem rich environment. We seek presentations on ongoing or completed works on strategic force size and CONOPs, nuclear, conventional or combined weapons effects, techniques for evaluating relative effectiveness of future strategic forces when the target base is yet undefined, policy implications of limited nuclear strikes, or conventional strikes on some traditional nuclear targets (such as silos). Related work on ballistic missile defense, command and control infrastructure, ISR, means of detecting WMD, novel operations research techniques or applications to analyze such trade-spaces are welcome.
Join us at the 76 th MORSS: Analysis for a More Secure World.
WG 2: Nuclear Biological Chemical Defense
CHAIR: LTC Thomas Rothwell, Center for Army Analysis, (703) 806-5173, thomas.rothwell@us.army.mil
CO-CHAIRS: Charlie Holman, ATEC-AEC, (703) 681-3376, charlie.e.holman@atec.army.mil; Gaurang Dave, NSWC-DD, (540) 653-0423, Gaurang.Dave@navy.mil; Eric Lowenstein, Northrop Grumman supporting DTRA CBT, (703) 924-3050x 5147, elowenstein@cnttr.dtra.mil; and, Laura Sears, DTRA-CBT, (703) 767-3337, laura.sears@dtra.mil
ADVISOR: James Gerding, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, (703) 325-1138, jgerding@cnttr.dtra.mil
NBC defense continues to evolve from principally a military battlefield mission before 9-11 to a world-wide challenge demanding collaborative OR efforts across federal, state, and local governments, private industry, and public institutions. Although still greatly underpinned by the tremendous OR capabilities of the military, the NBC defense community’s multi-purpose abilities continue to improve. This has led to ways of looking at NBC defense system improvements, comprehensive education and training programs, innovative applications of military-oriented NBC defense technologies to public and private sector security, force protection and anti-terrorism guidelines, and military-private research and development (R&D) initiatives. Great uncertainty exists; nevertheless, risk management methods to identify and assess threats and vulnerabilities exist for the rational allocation of scarce resources.
Presentations are sought that address OR's potential to enhance NBC risk management in order to provide for a more secure world: characterization of NBC threats and effects; hazard prediction modeling; near real-time post-attack analysis; sensor characterization and placement; data fusion for attack warning and detection; data shortfalls and limitations; capabilities leveraging military OR to support civil authorities; and OR contributions to NBC defense research, development and acquisition. All OR professionals with solutions for managing NBC risks in order to make the world a more secure place to live are welcome.
WG 3: International Security and Proliferation
CHAIR: Hunter Marks, USSTRATCOM, (225) 921-6186, Hunter.Marks@us.af.mil
CO-CHAIR: John Hummel, Argonne National Laboratory, (630) 252-7189, jhummel@anl.gov
ADVISOR: Pat McKenna, USSTRATCOM, (402) 294-1958, mckennap@stratcom.mil
Assurance of international security and dissuasion and deterrence of proliferation are the principal motivations cited for most military missions involving the United States and its allies. The continued importance of these issues is accompanied by an elevation of attention given to it by the MORS community. How might suspected proliferation be dealt with, and what types of assistance can traditional MORS techniques provide to decision-makers faced with this problem? How can proliferation, counter-proliferation, and security issues be sorted out to help prioritize areas of concern and interest while providing military organizations policy and technical guidance to develop force structures and strategic and operational concepts?
In order to make the world more secure through analysis, the working group is soliciting papers on the full spectrum of current and future issues. These issues include but are not limited to: Causes and Prevention of War; Conflict and Peacekeeping; Emerging, Catastrophic, and Disruptive Events; Regional Security Forces and Strategy; Theatre Security Cooperation; Proliferation Maintenance, Monitoring, Prevention and Mitigation; Stability and Escalation Dynamics; Diplomatic and Military Approaches; Delivery and Defenses; Alternative/Potential Futures; Sustainment; Development; and Changing Environments
Papers employing modeling, simulation, game theory, optimization, decision analysis, management science, assessment across PMESII and other quantitative/ analytical techniques are especially welcomed.
WG 4: Air and Missile Defense
CHAIR: Ms. Kelly Culpepper, Raytheon Missile Systems, 520-794-3595 F: 520-794-8978, klculpepper@raytheon.com
CO-CHAIRS: Mr. John Winkelman, Lockheed Martin, (856) 638-7204, john.r.winkelman@lmco.com; Mr. Woody Bevill, Lockheed Martin, (703) 414-6581, woodrow.bevill@lmco.com; Mr. Martin Goodman, US Army Space and Missile Defense Command, (256) 955-1937, martin.goodman@smdc.army.mil; Dr. Nigel Siva , SPARTA Inc., (703) 797-3103, Nigel.Siva@sparta.com; Mr. Chris Foley , JHU/APL, (240) 228-0814, chris.foley@jhuapl.edu
ADVISOR: Mrs. Launa Zaffram , NSWCDD, Warfare Systems Dept, (540) 653-2108, launa.zaffram@navy.mil
Fourth Generation Warfare has drastically changed the face of war and the art of war. Our greatest threats have changed from organized military forces to non-state actors and insurgents. And due to the expense of modern air forces, our enemy will attack using asymmetrical methods, mainly cruise and ballistic missiles. Modern cruise and ballistic missiles are cost effective, particularly if used against a small defended area. Land attack missiles have become widely available and easier to use thus having a strategic and political impact far greater than their tactical efforts. Furthermore, a handful of countries have demonstrated the willingness to develop and deploy both theater and intercontinental missile systems, which threaten the United States and its allies. As existing and new technologies become increasingly available worldwide, and sophisticated weapons are easier and less expensive to produce, steps must be taken today to provide effective air and missile defenses against the threats that are expected to emerge over the next 20 years.
The military is driving towards a net-centric force in which assets will be shared across multiple platforms. To this end, integration and coordination will be the driving factors to a greater Air and Missile Defense (AMD) capability. Due to the nature of current and projected threats, there must be a seamless integration of AMD capability that cuts across all terrain, environments, missions, and military services. Future sensor, weapon, and command and control systems must provide the ability to defeat any missile threat, with a specific focus on National Missile Defense and Homeland Defense. Simultaneously, protection of our troops in theaters of operations must continue to be a primary focus.
To support the 76th MORSS, WG 4 will primarily focus on analyses that address current and future capability studies that cut across multiple services, as well as tools that support the analysis of this asymmetric warfare. In light of threat countries like Iran, who cultivate nuclear development programs, and the cooperation between potentially antagonistic countries, additional focus will be on future air and missile threat analysis, and the balance between defending America from both state and non-state actors. AMD is a critical element to the Joint Warfighter. WG 4 will foster education and collaboration on the diverse and changing facets of air and missile defense.
WG 5: Homeland Defense and Civil Support
CHAIR: Tom Denesia, NORAD-NORTHCOM, 719-554-9680, thomas.denesia@northcom.mil
CO-CHAIRS: Bob Clarke, NORAD-NORTHCOM, 719-554-9767, robert.clarke@northcom.mil; Julie Seton, Advanced Systems Technology, 505-532-8884, jseton@astcorp.com; and, Ms. Kim Warren, The MITRE Corporation, 703-298-7423, kwarren@mitre.org
ADVISOR: Dr. Jerry Diaz, Homeland Security Institute, (703) 416-3083, jerry.diaz@hsi.dhs.gov
Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, there have been major efforts in the United States to secure the homeland, particularly with the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), March 2002, and the establishment of US Northern Command (USNORTHCOM), 1 Oct 2002, within the Department of Defense (DoD). USNORTHCOM is the newest Combatant Command (COCOM) and is now teamed with the existing bi-national North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) in providing homeland defense with their complementary missions. Specifically, USNORTHCOM’s mission is: Conduct operations to anticipate, deter, prevent, and defeat threats and aggression aimed at the United States, its territories, and interests within the assigned area of responsibility; and when directed, provide defense support of civil authorities including consequence management operations. NORAD’s mission is: In close collaboration with homeland defense, security, and law enforcement partners, prevent air attacks against North America, safeguard the sovereign airspaces of the United States and Canada by responding to unknown, unwanted, and unauthorized air activity approaching and operating within these airspaces, and provide aerospace and maritime warning for North America.
Assessing the impacts to DoD in executing the homeland defense mission and associated DoD policy will be one of the central goals of this working group. For example: What are the force structure impacts of homeland defense operations on other combatant Commands? How does the military size itself to support this new mission? What is the critical infrastructure that DoD is trying to protect in the homeland and how can it be prioritized?
The other equally important goal of this working group will be assessing the issues and associated policy of DoD’s support of civil authorities. This is unique to the military, since, in most situations, the civil authorities will have lead responsibility and DoD will be in a supporting role. For example: How does DoD interface with civil authorities and how should it interface in the future? What are the trigger points and thresholds where state and local authorities’ capabilities reach capacity and DoD support may be required? How and by what means can DoD support this country during natural disasters, as well as terrorist events?
From a more strategic perspective, there are many questions to be answered, such as: How do you transform the military mind set and policies so that interface with civilian agencies can be seamless? What steps should be taken to transform traditional military command and control processes into an environment which includes civil agencies? How is classified and sensitive information (databases, etc.) exchanged between military and civil agencies?
The questions are endless. This is a monumental shift in military thinking. This working group will serve as a test bed for new thoughts, ideas and approaches that our analytic community can bring to bare. We must re-develop ourselves to provide the senior decision makers and leaders of this country with the best options and recommendations on the many unique issues that are and will drive defense of the homeland.
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